Crude Bullish above 5796Crude is currently positioned at a crucial level with strong support around 5750 - 5800.
Can be bought close to those levels with Stop loss of close below those levels in 15 mins time frame.
QM1! trade ideas
How to Use Intermarket Analysis? - Crude Oil Potential DirectionAn example of Crude Oil and Palm Oil in my intermarket analysis to demonstrate how I identify potential upcoming trends and why I believe both are about to move.
To help narrow down potential opportunities in other markets, you can apply the techniques I am about to share.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Elliott Wave View on Light Crude Oil (CL) Favoring More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave in Oil (CL) suggests the decline from 8.13.2024 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 8.13.2024 high, wave (i) ended at 76.83 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 78.6. The commodity extended lower in wave (iii) towards 72.89 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 74.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 71.46 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Oil then turned higher in wave ((ii)) with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 73.52 and wave (b) ended at 72.81. Wave (c) higher ended at 77.58 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
Oil extended lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 73.82 and rally in wave ii ended at 76.91. It then extended lower in wave iii towards 69.19 and wave iv rally ended at 71.46. Expect Oil to end wave v soon which should complete wave (i) in higher degree. Afterwards, it should rally in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 8.26.2024 high before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 77.58 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
Oil Price Clears June LowThe price of oil clears the June low (69.42) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The selloff in the price of oil may persist as it trades to a fresh weekly low ($68.95), with a break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the February low ($66.60).
Next area of interest comes in around $65.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) but the price of oil may continue to hold above the January low ($64.37) if it struggles to break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
Need a move back above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to negate the bearish price action in crude, with a move above $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards the $75.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $76.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crude Breaking Down From An Elliott Wave Triangle Crude oil turned down this summer, from the upper triangle resistance trendline, as shown on our daily count, so it looks like more weakness can be coming still this year as drop from 81 unfolded in five waves while pullback to 80.00 can possibly be already completed after recent drop below $70, and now also out of a triangle. So we think that bears are in progress now and that more weakness can be coming within impulsive sell-off. Any near-term bounce can possibly stop at $72.00, a new resistance. Rise above 74 will suggest that break down failed.
Sell Opportunity on Light Crude Oil toward 63.7$Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to sell Light Crude Oil with a high probability in the Daily chart.
Our target is $63.7 within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Huge day for the bears. Both bull trend lines I had on my daily chart are now broken. 70 should be bigger resistance for now though. I expect the market to go sideways 69.5 - 71 for more time before another impulse. If bears manage to get below 69.5 tomorrow, that would bring 67 in play and really bad for the bulls. Neutral inside given range after such climactic selling but will join either side on strong momentum.
comment : Very interesting day for the bears. We broke below the triangle and are at the huge support price 70. Bulls need to step in big here or next stop is 67. If bulls come around big time and bears fail to keep it below 72, they could face a bear trap and another move back up inside the trading range. Big day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle now)
key levels: 70 - 73
bull case : Bulls are in do or die mode tomorrow. Fail at 70 and we will go 67 next. If they could generate strong buying, bears could fear a trap and exit longs. Most reasonable outlook is some sideways to up movement tomorrow. Bulls need anything above 72.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are now in full control of the market and they want to break below 70 and retest the December and January close/open prices around 67. Oil has not traded below 70 since June and there only for 2 days. Bears would need a big surprise again to break the 70 price. On the 1h chart there is a clean bear channel, which would go as high as 73.5 as of now. That channel is my preferred pattern for now.
Invalidation is above 73.
short term: Neutral. Expecting some sideways to up movement unless bears print a 15m bear bar below 70. Bears in control.
medium-long term: T riangle is dead. 70 has to hold or we might be in a new bear trend to 60 or lower. Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting the double top above 74. Had to get short latest below 73 when the 15m or 1h bear bar closed.
How Low Can It Go?WTI Crude Oil (October)
Last week's close: Settled at 73.55, down 2.36 on Friday and 1.28 on the week
Last Friday’s sharp sell-off in the Crude complex came on the heels of a Reuters report that stated OPEC+ was planning on moving ahead with production increases. Momentum in the Crude complex is currently to the downside. WTI is off around -2% this morning to the 72.25 level (October), while RBOB is off -2.40% to 204.32. Diesel (Heating-Oil) is the strongest of the group being down only -1.26% to the 225.00 level.
Production plans out of OPEC+ is a catalyst we’ve keyed in on as being the next major driver in crude pricing trends. While markets still await a final, official announcement from the group, the uncertainty is still being traded as bearish this morning.
Yesterday, Libya announced Force Majeure of their El Feel Crude Oil field. Normally this would be a decent bull catalyst, but OPEC+ production increases will likely be at a level that offsets the Libyan barrels being taken off the market. Other catalysts moving the markets include continued weakness out of China and doubts surrounding U.S. economic growth.
Pricing pressure will persist until we have word from OPEC. Again, we advise caution and that misinformation surrounding OPEC+ announcements is commonplace. But, unless OPEC publicly refutes these reports of production increases, the risk is pretty clearly to the downside.
Early weakness in WTI Crude Oil futures has taken out significant support at 72.20-72.59, which will now act as our Pivot and point of balance on the session. However, only a close back above 73.55-73.60 is needed to negate this early fallout. The next big level of support aligns multiple indicators at 71.46-71.93, and a close below here will confirm the bears are in the driver's seat.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 72.89-73.00** 73.55-73.60***, 74.02**, 74.33-74.85***
Pivot: 72.20-72.59***
Support: 71.46-71.93***, 70.88-70.92***, 69.60-69.81**, 67.98-68.61****
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Oil this is the day after Labor Day and Friday and Today Show that the market has minor gaps lower and that there's a chance that the market will break lower. the best trade location was on Friday of last week when it gave a nice reversal.... but I talked about that and discuss some of the details. I spent all my time on this video to give you details of how I think and judge probability and then I attached a stop. everything I can think about is what I discuss on this video. am not a mentor... you cannot pay me to be a mentor even though I did it for two friends when I started this.... and I will do this a little longer for two young guys that I want to help if they want to spend the time and study the videos. if you want a signal service you are not going to like this. this is to show you how to trade so that you don't need a signal service. I had a friend years ago who was a very good Trader and he was far better at this than I was but in the end he made some mistakes and is the same age as I am and he's essentially broke... and because of his bad decisions that he didn't monitor and respond to correctly he was afraid to trade. since we were still talking to one another he said he was going to use a signal service and I decided to stick around on the internet to talk to him about his very bad decision . he thought he did his due diligence and said that he followed this guy who was a public figure with Incredible credentials according to information my friend had and I told him watch it but do not trade it. I had even looked at a couple of videos that my friend told me about and I told my friend this guy is not going to be good for you and he gives too many trades in a day and you have to take the trades when you get the signal and he can give signals all day and all night and you don't have enough To trade the way this guy has set things up. I told him what he would have to do is pick and choose and that's a big problem when you have to pick and choose the trades that you like and not trade all the suggestions of a signal Trader which means you don't have a realistic assessment of how this Trader trades. it got worse than that because I told him I would watch with him and I would get the signals from my friend and also when he got out of the trades and both my friend and I couldn't believe how bad the trades were. this guy was terrible and the risk reward parameters and the fact that you would take 3 or 4 or more trades in a day made no sense. my friend is my age nearly broke and probably doesn't trade anymore. avoid people who make mistakes and use poor judgment..... you have to move on unless you want to be like those people you let surround you.
CL!Bottoming Out needs to break Resistance Area. As per current Cycle Crude Oil will try to vreak resistance soon
CRUDE UPDATE - Weekly overviewCrude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 1-Day
Resistance Level: 6,190
Expected Move: Pullback from 6,190 resistance towards 6,038 support zone
Support Level: 6,038 (multi-swing-low support area)
Outlook: Potential bounce off the support area could lead to a climb higher
Don't Forget To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more !
Best Regards , Shalvi Sharma
CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the funnel and then reverse the trend.
Crude Oil Slips: Third Consecutive Week **"Crude Oil Slips: Third Consecutive Week Of Losses Amid Mounting Bearish Pressure"** On Friday, August 30th, front-month crude futures sharply dropped before paring losses. OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward an output increase in October. Our algorithm issued a daily chart sell alert on July 22, 2024, followed by a weekly chart sell alert on August 12. A break below the $69.28 price level on a weekly basis could potentially trigger a more significant decline, driving crude prices down to $60 or lower by early next year.
Cup and Handle in Crude today. BullishCup and holder pattern created on 5 minutes candle on the crude oil. It will go as showed on the chart.
This is for educational purposes only. It is not recommended to trade based on this posted idea. Take a trade on your risk.
Thank You.
Can the HOUSE Catch SHORT from Daily Consolidation EQ Level...?NYMEX:CL1!
"When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you'll be successful. It's not about craving success like you crave food or water, it's about needing it like air. That urgency, that necessity—that's when you break through." -Eric Thomas
I consider this published narrative SHORT to be as HIGH probable as they come. Why? Due to the PA on the Daily TF... I have went into Gr8 detail here in the video as to why I'm SHORT Biased on this asset this week. Now of course this is all based upon probability!! IF PA can develop price building back into Daily Consolidation EQ Level ($74.75) / S&R Zone ($75.00 to $74.65) then i'll be compelled to go SHORT... My absolute STOP Level will be ($75.50) not willing to risk any higher... Remember our ultimate GOAL is to Master our SYSTEM over-time. We aim for 3-5 Possible HIGH PROBALE setups a week, nothing more than that!!! LESS IS MORE!!
Less Trades-Massive Profits!!
1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN...MCX:CRUDEOIL1! trade at 6200 level,
Support is at 5850
Resistance is at 7050
Crude oil trade in a range since 3 years. Now it ready for give a breakout or breakdown...
Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long.
Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October.
Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently.
Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand.
RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER
The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions.
Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting.
Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack.
Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia.
The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation.
Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd.
WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK
Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check.
Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low.
Source: OPEC and IEA
On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted.
Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September.
Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude.
The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term.
This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again.
Source: CME CVOL
Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility.
Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context.
Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option.
This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements.
Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put.
The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference.
The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot.
When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns.
• Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29
• Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71
However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot.
The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices.
MARKET DATA
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DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action.
comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 74 - 77
bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math.
Invalidation is above 76.2.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment.
medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
Neutral HOUSE outlook on Crude Oil to go LONG or SHORT...?NYMEX:CL1!
"All your life you are told the things you cannot do. All your life they will say you're not good enough or strong enough or talented enough. They will say you're the wrong height or the wrong weight or the wrong type to play this or be this or achieve this. They will tell you no. A thousand times no. Until all the no's become meaningless. All your life they will tell you no. Quite firmly and very quickly. And you will tell them YES." -Lebron James
We coming out on TOP nothing less than that! Here I have developed a High Probable SHORT or LONG based narrative, All depending on your risk appetite and perception of HIGH PROBABLE for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE here on Crude OIL and below I break down into what I want to see develop before we enter the market. Let's get to it!!
1) On the WEEKLY TF we are currently trading inside a MAJOR Wedge. We have created eR/LQ to the upside and downside that price is just ping ponging back N forth in between. The most important part of this TF is the GAN BOX drawn out from the last WEEKLY HIGH to WEEKLY LOW and the 50% EQ Level ($76.30). That I believe price is trying to return back to ($76.30).
2) 4Hr TF I have also drawn out a GAN BOX from the 4Hr Last HIGH to 4Hr LOW and drew out the 50% EQ Level ($75.20) This is another level that I believe price is also returning to retest...
2) Now let's drop down to the LTF's 1Hr, 30m &15m.... As we can clearly see sellers have created this iR/LQ Trendline to the downside that clearly needs to be swept by buyers to create fair value in the market for both parties.
*** Now if buyers can build off of this current 1Hr Demand that sellers swept out this morning during LONDON session and we can push price back up above 4Hr Swing EQ ($75.20) and sweep the iR/LQ Trendline with confirmed candle closures above then I may be interested in going LONG...
3) Now in order to go LONG I need to see price break above ($75.20) per barrel and close above price on the 30m TF n Below. If and when we can get these sequence of events to take place then I'll be highly interested in going LONG and my target would be WEEKLY Swing EQ Level ($76.30) roughly around 110 points in our favor LONG...
OR we can just wait for price to reach Weekly Swing EQ Level ($76.30) drop down to the LTF 15m and just wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh (Change of Character) and then go SHORT, Targeting 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($75.20) roughly around a 160 points in our favor SHORT Depending on Entry...
4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
crude oil shortshorting crude oil
fundamental showing bullish and giving sign that it will buy heavily
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback.
quote from my weekly update:
short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower.
comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 75 - 79
bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling.
Invalidation is above 78.
short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
Crude is Ripping, but Where To?Crude Oil (October)
Last week’s close: Settled at 74.83, up 1.82 on Friday and down 0.71 on the week
Crude Oil rose sharply overnight after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon, and Libya’s eastern government said it will halt exports.
The two events, while unrelated, are the main cause for the sharply higher trade in Crude Oil this morning. Libya’s eastern government’s choice to halt oil production and exports was the result of a continued political tussle over the country’s central bank. Israel sent over 100 warplanes to strike thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers on Sunday - a flare-up in tensions amidst continued ceasefire talks. Furthermore, Hamas said yesterday “that U.S. talk of an imminent ceasefire deal is false and serves election purposes.”
Libya was set to export 1 million bpd of crude oil in August. A retraction of Libyan barrels from the export markets may cause ripple effects this week as geopolitical tensions continue to flare and OPEC continues mulling their planned production increases.
WTI Crude Oil futures are trading out above 76.75, the 50% retracement from the August 5th low back to the July 5th high. Previous resistance now defines support at 75.36-75.73 and again below there at 74.52-74.85, aligning with Friday’s settlement. Theis defines a clear blueprint for the bulls to hold the driver’s seat. Still, there is strong overhead resistance lurking at 78.13-78.54, but a move above could encourage forced buying.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 78.13-78.54***, 79.85-80.00***
Pivot: 76.75
Support: 75.36-75.73***, 74.52-74.85***, 74.16-74.38***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
