CL Watching yo see if High Volume Node from ~70-72.5 holds for support for push higher later in week and into next.
QM1! trade ideas
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - 16% in 5 days. Alrighty then. No matter your religious beliefs, you can not buy and pray for higher prices. Buying near the 1h 20ema was profitable since last Tuesday but the rally is so climactic that we will very likely see a bigger pullback soon that will be driven by traders taking profits and reducing their risk. Don’t be exit liquidity. Otherwise it’s obviously max bullishness and we can expect a test of 80 soon. Any decent pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t buy big bear bars and hope for the best. Wait until market turns up again.
comment : Does not make sense to try to come up with a bull/bear case when the market is doing one of the nastiest short squeezes ever. It’s max bullish and your job now is to evaluate potential spots to get long. No matter how you put it, you can only long this on strong momentum or a decent pullback. The 1h 20ema was profitable for 4 trading days now, look for longs around that price. Can we go higher without a better pullback? Look at the rally 2023-06-28 to 2023-09-28. 3 months of a very strong bull rally and markets always have pullbacks. It could obviously still go higher before a pullback but I would not buy above 77 right now. Market has to form a better pattern for this to be sustainable. Right now it’s a short squeeze and we will soon see a bigger pullback because trader want to lock in profits in order to reduce their risk.
current market cycle: strongest bull trend
key levels: 70 - 80
bull case: Bulls are in control. Don’t look for shorts, can almost certainly only get burned. Potential targets for bulls to begin to take profits are above us. I got two bear trend lines around 77 - 79. I’d be surprised if we straight go for 80 without a better pullback. Any pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t long too early and get trapped in a deeper one you can not hold onto.
Invalidation is below 73.
bear case: Get outta here, no bear case.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anywhere and have the balls to hold.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: US WTI CRUDE OILUS WTI Crude Oil expanded to the upside last week, with a convincing close. ON the Daily, a +FVG was formed. Things are in place for price to continue to move higher.
My bias is bullish, and I am looking for buys.
Consider the tension in the Mid East, pushing prices higher.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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REPLAY: 2 PHASE / OIL LONG PLAYThere is nothing special about an idea until it comes to fruition. The trade idea that I had for this was inspired by previous price action and recollection of what happened in similar market situations.
For the traders who agreed that the original post was worth a boost are special because for most, 2 phases is too far into the future.
OIL: 2 PHASE LONG (FRIDAY)Idea;
Geopolitical tensions in the middle east will heat up over the weekend. Let's buy some cash and run it through the algo long ahead of the potential weekend gap.
LEG A:
1. Short Oil
2. Target Fair Value
3. Bank Profits
LEG B:
1. Long Oil via Synthetadex Algo
2. Target anything higher
3. Bank Profit Gap Up Sunday Night.
CURDEOIL OCT 2024 KEY LEVEL FOR 07/10/2024//@description
// All credit goes to Tony for the concept of this indicator. His Trading View link: www.tradingview.com
// Note: The calculation method in this indicator differs from Tony's, but the concept is derived from his work.
**Explanation:**
This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits. It considers volume, past prices, price range and indiavix.
**Entry/Exit Points:**
- **Entry/Exit Lines:** Use the BLACK line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan.
- **Stop Loss:** For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the BLACK line above.
- **Take Profit:** For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next BLACK line below.
**Timeframe:**
Use a 5 timeframe for trading.
**Risk Disclaimer:**
This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details.
OIL Buy SetupOIL Buy
Time Frame:
- Daily: (FVG Identification)
- 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication)
- 1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation
---
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds.
3. Entry Signal
Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone.
4. Trade Execution
Entry Price: Wait for confirmation
SL: 72.10 (below H4 FVG)
TP1: 77.50 (previous high)
TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5
Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM
5. Outcome:
Exit Price:
Profit/Loss: pips
-------------
Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
OIL Buy SetupTrade Setup
OIL Buy
Time Frame:
- Daily: (FVG Identification)
- 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication)
-1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation
---
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds.
3. Entry Signal
Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone.
4. Trade Execution
Entry Price: Wait for confirmation
SL: 72.20 (below H4 FVG)
TP1: 77.50 (previous high)
TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5.3 - 1:7.5
Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM
5. Outcome:
Exit Price:
Profit/Loss: pips
-------------
Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
OIL: 2 PHASE LONG (FRIDAY) (VIDEO)Idea;
Geopolitical tensions in the middle east will heat up over the weekend. Let's buy some cash and run it through the algo long ahead of the potential weekend gap.
LEG A:
1. Short Oil
2. Target Fair Value
3. Bank Profits
LEG B:
1. Long Oil via Synthetadex Algo
2. Target anything higher
3. Bank Profit Gap Up Sunday Night.
My one gamble of the month.
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think.
comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line.
current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78.
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises.
Invalidation is below 70.4.
bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls.
Invalidation is above 74.2.
short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
CL winning tradeBeautiful morning when you take a win on oil. This one will cover the heating bill for the season. All Glory To God I can cover someone else’s heating bill this winter as well.
You have to be obsessed if you want to make it in trading. You’re only as good as your last loss.
Crude oil rejects key resistance despite elevated tensions Crude oil overnight shied away from our key resistance at $72.50 highlighted in this article here yesterday www.ig.com as the market pushed back expectations of an Israeli response to Iran's missile attack until the end of the Rosh Hashanah holiday tomorrow.
While its possible, we think its unlikely that Israeli will launch an attack on Iranian oil fields as such a move would likely drive oil prices toward $80 - an outcome which would be frowned upon by Israel's allies, who are making strides against inflation.
Instead, strategic Israeli strikes on critical weapons factories and military objectives are more probable, like the events in April. Furthermore, any potential loss of Iranian supply will likely be offset by the return of Libyan oil and increased Saudi production, as voluntary supply cuts expire on December 1st.
Crude Oil Swing Trade Prediction Using ICT MethodPredicting to see Crude Oil go above 75.00 per Barrel. Waiting for an entry at the ICT +Breaker
Audacious Oil SetupOn the macro, this looks like a potential position idea. LONG term holds, at least a year. Let's see if we get the reversal off the zone. If we do reject that zone nicely, I think we're in for a nice long roadtrip.
Crude Outlook4h OF appears to be to the upside currently, or at least contested down. 15m OF is also currently aligned, so I'll be looking at longs for the moment. It's possible that since we're sweeping the 1D weak hi that we'll see more of a move to the downside, but I'll follow the 15m OF
Oil ,Rise to the sky againWell, it's nothing new, I actually recycled the previous projection, basically it's very easy, it will simply be the same, the price of crude oil will very likely take a bullish trend in the short to medium term, at a pace strongly influenced by current events.
OILThis move originated from respecting a bearish FVG, this makes the manipulation to our HTF PDRA now support is bullish fvg that we disrepect With higher time frame SMT, OTE and Discount and a lot of BSL . but this is the part that made me bullish:
i was bullish when we hit the inverse 1 H IFVG but got stoped out ( reduced risk 50% i could have improved and waited for the candle to close, (it had a bit more left to fill) now when i re enter i apply time 9.30 and enterd with the billish move instead of anticipating it
We see a reaction from the daily level but fail to fill the 4 H one wich is located at the 7.05 level.
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear trend line.
comment: Bull spike was big enough to expect a second leg. Bears tested the lows enough from a technical perspective and I do think the pain trade is up. One measured move target is 74, which would be around the upper bear trend line and that is my preferred target for the bulls as of now.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls should not let it drop below 68.5. If they keep it above the 1h 20ema, their odds continue to be great for a second leg to 73 or higher. There is a small chance that the pullback already happened to 69.76 and we move higher from here. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning before EU open. Bulls are favored.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to keep it a lower high below 72.4 or market will likely move to 73/74 with force. The 71.5 price is roughly the 50% pullback for the last bear leg and market continues to find sellers in that area. As long as that is the case, we will likely continue sideways between 66 - 72.
Invalidation is above 72.4.
short term: Bullish above 69.5, expecting a second leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08 : Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 67 was previous support and market got to 66.32 before we got a decent pullback. Could you have anticipated the spike? Maybe. The buying below 67 was strong enough to expect a second leg up and maybe retest 68. I’m happy for everyone who caught it.
Crude oil October first 2024. this is the second video today. the first video I talked about range boxes on the dxy and I described the problem with ranges that don't have enough vertical range. oil had arranged box with a range of about two to $3000 from top to bottom or bottom the top. you can trade that type of a range and it will be accompanied with good trade location and higher probability Behavior to take you Higher and lower when you have a range that's nearly 3000. the range of a trade on oil is likely to be a profitable trade even if you screw it up and only make $1500 instead of $2000. trading higher probability is a function of the distance between buyers and sellers when you decide on a trade location. what this means is that it's not just the stop that decides your risk, it is also a function of the range of a trade from your trade location. a I believe if you don't think like this you will miss a very important function on how you decide to take a trade. extensions are very critical to my trade decisions and the two most important extensions are the measured move and the 1.272. I am an extreme advocate for for factoring in extensions. at the end of this video I compared the difference between using ABCD patterns as opposed to using extensions and the example in this video shows a clear difference between using ABCD patterns and trading range boxes..... thing to think about and none of this is written in stone. I'm going to mention something as and aside. the markets are great markets right now because there are enough opportunities that can give you multi-$1000 trades.... however when the market finally breaks down and it's clear that there is a pervasive bearish Market as I believe there will be and I am definitely not the only one who thinks this.... what will happen for many of these markets that are so great to trade right now is that those individual markets will contract and there will be less clarity for deciding whether the Market's going higher or lower and this is potentially very treacherous times to trade the market and this is why you want to understand the concept of expansion and contraction of markets..... it's only a question of when this happens and sometimes these markets they can track can go on for months and years.
Crude Outlook4h orderflow is bearish, though it's also slightly rangy. 15m orderflow is currently aligned to the 4h, and we've got a 15m mitigation chain coming off of the 4h supply zone. Shorts make sense for the moment.
Oil Price Rebound to Face Negative Slope in 50-Day SMAThe price of oil may attempt to retrace the decline from the last week’s high ($72.40) as it initiates a series of higher highs and lows.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Keep in mind, the price of oil bounced back the January low ($64.37) to hold within the yearly range, and a break/close above $70.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push crude back towards $72.80 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
Next area of interest comes in around the monthly high ($73.23) but the price of oil may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($71.88) if it continues to hold below the moving average.
Failure to hold above $67.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly low ($64.09).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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