Alcoa Inc (AA)Possible Hold
Speculation & Technical Analysis
• Double top formation
o Could be bearish
o Wait for confirmation, around the low 9s to breakdown (Short)
o Double top reversal @ low 10s (Long)
Chinese Aluminum Market/Economy
China Driving the Commodity Rally
• Chinese aluminum production will likely increase by 1.4 million tons this year
• Negative impacts because of slower demand growth
• Europe in expansionist mode?
o more lending, and if there is more lending then there will be more buying
o Twenty-five percent of Chinese exports go to Europe, so what's good for Europe is going to be good for commodities.
• 10 million people are expected to be lifted out of poverty this year
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The Street
• Prices of metals are benefiting from optimism that global growth is rebounding.
• Aluminum prices remain below $1,600 per metric ton after falling more than 40% last year
Alcoa
• Under pressure through 2015, 28% decline over the past 12 months
• China has an abundant supply
