ADC - Long Setup ADC (Agree Realty Corporation):** Showing a smart meter divergent signal at the bottom of a downward channel, with a target around 74.90. Potential entry around 72.33 with a stop at 70.93.
ADC trade ideas
ADC maybe adding to long-term accountI have never really gotten into reits and tend to avoid most real-estate focused equities. I have been watching ADC for a while and have watched other investors cover the stock. From a technical perspective it looks to be waking up on the weekly. ADC pays a yearly dividend of around 5% and this is paid out monthly, so it can compound pretty heavily if you get a multiple expansion (PE growth).
Since I am primarily interested in small caps (my specialty in all markets) ADC seems to fit my general mold. I like to keep ~ 33% of my long-term account in what I refer to as a "core dividend portfolio". Every stock was purchased at a steep discount from this most recent winter stock market crash. This includes the likes of VZ, and freehold for example.
Technically, the 100-200 EMA are finally looking for a collision, and RSI remains in a macro downtrend but could be reversing here, volume on the yearly is rising. My short-term price target is the green fib ~63.3$ as I expect the stock to continue to climb as investors take profit from hot ai/tech stocks and seek quality/value.
ADC - Similar Formations Similar continuation patterns with the top of the pattern being along the green trend line.
Each pattern led to bullish continuation.
The most recent formation is the largest which may play a part in the continuation extent, or the continuation ability.
ADC Agree Realty Corp Long ideaNYSE:ADC
Agree Realty Corp showing signs of trend continuation on the long side.
The price had corrected from the previous June high and consolidated around $68-70 range.
It look like it might be ready for the next swing up.
ADC getting ready for massive breakoutThe consolidation is extetensive. Expect it to move sideways for a few days as the spring coils and shoots up 10-15%.
ADC - long in couple weeksADC is trading in the range.
If (or when) it reaches 62, it will be a good signal for a long position with take-profit at 65.
Strong support allows to set tight stop-loss.
Waiting to see how it develops within couple weeks.
Inverted hammer at resistanceDISCLAIMER. This post is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Your use of the stock observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility
No Longer Random: Here's Why I Believe in Fib Ratios & HarmonicsI am going through a book on Harmonics and Fibonacci ratios (The Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney), and I'm seeing for myself how these ratios can be used as key areas of reversal.
I used to believe that day-to-day price action was random, but after looking at several charts for myself, I now reject my old belief and concede that price action is greatly tied to key Fibonacci levels and conforms decently to harmonic patterns.
The key levels I highlight here are
- 0.382
- 1.618
In the first leg, we draw our Fib off of the pivot around the $51 level to the pivot high around the $70 level. Here, we can see a reversal off the 0.382 level almost 100% cleanly.
In the second leg, we draw our Fib off that same pivot high around the $70 level to the pivot low around the $63 level. Here, we see a reversal off of the 1.618 extension level, another key reversal level.
In the third leg, we draw our Fib off that same pivot low around the $63 level to the pivot high around the $76 level. Here, we see a test of the 0.382 level, again.
But wait, there's more.
We can also draw an AB=CD harmonic using the following levels.
- A: Pivot low around $56
- B: Pivot high around $70
- C: Pivot low around $63
- D: Pivot high around $76
The AB leg is roughly the same length as the CD leg.
As you can see, AB=CD reversal also happens to be in that same 1.618 area.
All of this works together in unison.
Amidst all of these reversals off these levels, here's my Golden Rule : Use market structure as confirmation of these reversals. Look for 'M's (double tops) and 'W's (double bottoms), as well as bullish/bearish candles when appropriate, to confirm the direction of the reversal. Don't blindly trade solely off of levels.
I didn't cover them here, but I also love seeing reversals off of 0.618 and/or 0.786 levels. Those occur very frequently, too. Just gotta train your eyes.
ADC: Sort opportunityAn intraday high potential, Back Tested Sort Analysis.
We ll try to enter into the correction of the uptrend movement.
DETAILS ON THE CHART
NOTE: Entry range area above the entry point, is calculated upon 80% of the recorded pullback back tested past performances
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money on.
ADC - Ascending TriangleADC has consolidated for more than a year, creating an ascending triangle
price broke above upper resistance at 51.3 area
price retast the area creating some hammer candlesticks
*note: price is not dividend correlated
Long IdeaAgree Realty Corporation is engaged in real estate activities primarily in the United States. It manages retail properties for the purpose of generating shareholders income on a consistent basis. Company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Price chart breakout over 18 month-long ascending triangle resistance of 51.33. This breakout could push the stock above the measured target of 60.00 area.
Earnings Vs Chart Patterns: Agree Reality-ADC: An UpdateDisclaimer: I am not affiliated with-ADC in any way. I have been long the stock, and added to my position.
I am always interested in the chart patterns that I review. Do they forecast the news, or does the news forecast the chart patterns?
Three days ago I alerted all that ADC-was to release its earnings on 07-25-16. Here is what the company did in the latest quarter:
On 7/25/2016, ADC reported 2nd quarter 2016 non-GAAP earnings of $0.48 per share. This result beat the $0.37 consensus of the 4 analysts covering the company and beat last year's 2nd quarter results by 26.32%.
Total Rental Revenue---Total rental revenue, which includes minimum rents and percentage rents, for the three months ended June 30, 2016 increased 23.6% to $19.9 million, compared to total rental revenue of $16.1 million for the comparable period in 2015.
Total rental revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2016 increased 25.8% to $38.6 million, compared to total rental revenue of $30.7 million for the comparable period in 2015.
Funds from Operations---FFO for the three months ended June 30, 2016 increased 23.8% to $13.8 million, compared to FFO of $11.1 million for the comparable period in 2015.
Dividend---The Company paid a cash dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15, 2016 to stockholders of record on June 30, 2016, a 3.2% increase over the $0.465 quarterly dividend declared in the second quarter of 2015.
Now I think this is a great release, BUT, the stock did retrace about 2% in the two day period after the earnings release.
Buy on rumor, sell on news? Who knows? Personally, I look for extremely strong chart patterns, BUT, I do my fundamental homework also.
I used the 2% draw-down as an opportunity to add to my position. I think this issue will continue to be strong on a technical basis - and with interest rates so low, and ADC-raising its dividend (to almost 4%), there are a lot of things going well for-ADC. This is a stock that I want to be long.
How about another quote from Alfred E. Neuman?
"A plastic surgeon's office the only place where no one gets offended when you pick your nose!"
Good luck to you. Don.
Earnings Vs Chart Patterns: Agree Reality-ADCUpdate. Seven days ago I wrote about the strong technical patterns in-ADC.
Today I alert those interested that-ADC earnings are scheduled to be released 07-25-16.
The question to be answered: Do the strong chart patterns forecast an acceptable earnings release?
The technicals suggest yes, but the risk is disappointment in what the company discloses in the release.
To quote Ed Hart: "We will all know in the fullness of time".
My opinion: remain long. Don.
Trending Now Update: Agree RealtyFifteen days ago I published my thoughts about various strong "Trending Now" asset classes. These trends could be up or down.
Agree Reality-ADC-remains in its very strong uptrend. It is likely to remain strong. Here are my opinions as to why:
Disclosure - I do own ADC-and added more to my position this past week..
As you can see from the chart above, ADC-got even stronger from 15 days ago.
This stock is only 2.33% off its 52 week high - and momentum indicators (such as full stochastics, daily-hourly-30 minute, etc.) are on the upswing (indicating higher prices).
From a non-technical perspective, the dividend yield is 3.91%, so this is a big attraction to institutions.
Let's review Don's TRADE-MAP approach:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach:
1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising as well as the 89 day moving average . 2. Prices have risen FAR above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud.
6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong.
7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is strong (green over red). 8. The Top (lower bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this is STRONG (one of the strongest I've ever seen). 9. The green fractal arrows are up (not shown). 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $48. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend.
The big negative I see is the stock is STILL way ahead of itself (plus three sigma from the moving average mean). What does this equate to in plain English? This stock has traded below $49.03 approximately 99.7% of the time. It's due for a pullback. I plan to buy more AFTER a pullback.
As for a stock that is "TRENDING NOW", ADC-is very strong, and has been for the duration of the chart.
WARNING: I believe the-S&P 500-is very expensive and is kind of like a high wire walker walking between buildings (on the wire) with wind gusts at 40 mph. An unexpected "gust of wind" could easily be the tipping point and the "wire walker" would be in trouble.
I observed (on Friday 07-15-16) when there was an attempted coup in Turkey announced shortly after the-NYSE closed, the-S&P 500 futures immediately started to drop sharply. Something like this could be the unseen 40 mph gust of wind for the market and your portfoilo. If not Turkey, then China, or something else political. Be careful!
Yes, money is flowing into stocks and the averages are GRINDING higher, but be aware of the "MARKET SHOCK" that can blind side you. For protection I have several hedges in my portfolio: (SH-DOG-MYY). SH-are shares short the-S&P 500, DOG-are shares short the-DOW-Industrials, MYY-are shares short the S&P-400 (mid caps).
It works: On the Brexit weekend the stocks I had long still went up, and the short shares also went up. We will have a sharp correction (which is long over due). My advice to all: hedge your positions or wait for at least a 10% decline before going long.
I would like to close with this quote from one of the BEST investment minds ever, Sir John Templeton:
“Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trade
New Feature, "Trending Now": Agree RealityI thought I would share with all some charts that are, for lack of a better description, "Trending Now".
Disclosure - I do own ADC-and wanted to buy some more last week during the 900 point (DOW-Industrials) pullback.
As you can see from the chart above, ADC-got even stronger.
This stock is only .31% off its 52 week high - and set a new high each day last week.
From a non-technical perspective, the dividend yield is 3.94%, so this is a big attraction to institutions.
Let's review Don's TRADE-MAP approach:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach:
1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising as well as the 89 day moving average. 2. Prices have risen FAR above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is also rising.
5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong.
7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is strong (green over red). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this is STRONG (one of the strongest I've ever seen). 9. The green fractal arrows are up (not shown). 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $44. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend.
The big negative I see is the stock is way ahead of itself (plus three sigma from the moving average mean). What does this equate to in plain English? This stock has traded below $48.57 more than 99.8% of the time. It's due for a pullback. I plan to buy more AFTER a pullback.
As for a stock that is "TRENDING NOW", ADC-is very strong, and has been for the duration of the chart.
I would like to close with two quotes from Odgen Nash:
1. “To keep your marriage brimming, with love in the wedding cup, whenever you're wrong, admit it; whenever you're right, shut up.”
2. “A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of.”
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
