AGO daily analysisHi friends
the daily chart of this market shows with a high probability that the first goal will be the level of 42.88 and if there will be a breakout at this level the second goal will be the level 47.98
AGO trade ideas
Long setup for AGO in the Insurance sectorWhat I see...
+ A wedge squeezing in with prices supported by the Support trend line after earnings last week
+ Vol. spike on Friday, despite a red bar, it painted a hammer with long lower shadow
+ Multiple short bursts of 20% to 40% increase since March within 3-4 sessions
- Lost more than 50% of its value from Feb to March
- RSI pushed back to 48
- Overall a weak / downward trending stock
- 10 and 50 MA are both under 200 MA
How I setup...
+ Long entry when break above last week's high
- Stop at low of Friday's shadow
+ Target at $40
AGO: Sort opportunityAn intraday high potential, Back Tested Sort Analysis.
We ll try to enter into the correction of the uptrend movement tracking trend oscillators as below:
Price is likely to move within the parallel channel having the potential to breaking it down.
CCI triple top divergence waiting to breakdown the zero level.
DETAILS ON THE CHART
NOTE: Entry range area above the entry point, is calculated upon 80% of the recorded pullback back tested past performances
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money on.
AGO - Looking for value in troubled timesWith a book value per share of $50 and an Earnings Per Share of 6.6, we can estimate a fair value of around $86. Bear in mind that valuation of financial companies is very hard, so even when this math may be right, financial companies tend to suffer the most when the finance and capital markets overall are not performing nicely.
That sounds great, but let's face it, there is a lot of other things to look at. From the technical point of view, the market is a strange place right now, and $AGO is not an exception. The chart is hanging by a thread and not looking at all ideal... BUT, not dead yet!
So here is the plan, I am going to put a very small amount of this on my portfolio, as a long play, but with a short eye on the stop. If from the technical side of things this doesn't pick up, I am not going to maintain a long position just for value, I will sill keep an eye on it, but re-buy when the chart looks better.
Stop at 33.90, a look at the 38.50 area to the upside as the first control point.
Let's see how this goes!
SCT ConfirmedThe price has broken upward with above average volume out of a consolidation period. This may suggest a continuation of previous uptrend that halted by MARKET BRUTALITY. If price stays above $25, good to stay long or add more with target price $31-$32 area.
AGO short playPrice stalling out with selling pressure coming in around the $29.00 area and also now with 4/8 emas pointing down, this can me a good short with a stop above 29.12 as this would negate the set up. It will take a big move to push this through that area of distribution though. Also there has been some bearish options activity on this name in the last couple of weeks. can wait for breakdown of 28.49 to confirm move.
AGO: Short Setup on a Double Top FormationUpdate: The trade is active now
Update: Target Hit
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The share is showing recovery, however the bullish rebound could provide an opportunity for another short.
-The price has tentatively broken the double top formation
-The price has tentatively broken the 52-week SMA
-The price has broken the ascending support for the rising wedge formation
-Heavy volume on downside breakouts
-Sustained bearish divergence on RSI
I will be short near 24.50, targeting 20.50 support level, with a stop daily closing above 26.25.
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My best regards,
Technician
Back above 24...would be better but it looks like a break out then check back kinda like ZNGA. I am long both names slightly in the red and will hold as long as they start grinding back higher from here. Otherwise I will cut my losses.
