If it's good enough for Oaktree - it's good enough for me!Ashford, like most hotel operators, took a serious hit due to Covid. They are hanging on and I believe they'll survive thanks to their strong portfolio of properties. I caught this one back in late December and early January and happened to notice that Oaktree Capital was supplying AHT liquidity. After further research, I am long. I think this one is going to skyrocket as normal patterns of business and living resume--and they will!
In the short term, and as I write this, the weak hands are selling out of this because earnings will be reported 2/24/21 after hours. These Covid and wintertime affected earnings will likely suck, I expect that. The real test is gong to come the spring/summer/fall of 2021.
Ashford owns many high-end hotels, with a good amount of those in TX and FL. I keep things very simple: We're witnessing a large population flow to these states, I believe that will inevitably continue. You wanna move to TX-- you're gonna need to go down and scope things out--so you get a hotel for a few days. Business is booming in these locations and there is a tourism draw as well. Sure, some will stay in some musty ma and pa rental, but I guarantee that local businesses will have contract rates with the big guys. When a prospective software engineer flies into Austin, Orlando, Jacksonville, for an interview, they will be staying at the Hilton, Embassy Suites, etc. on the house.
There is some CA exposure I'm concerned with. The one positive: AHT is positioned well to serve tourists as they are located in great places.
Overall I'm very excited about this one. I have a decent but reasonable position going if things don't work out.
AHT trade ideas
AHTAshford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (NYSE:AHT) The last couple of days the stock seems to have been forming a Bullish flag pattern or pullback opportunity and a breakout is needed for further direction to be divined. After showing a smart recovery from the lower levels around $6, the stock has been moving sideways. From a technical standpoint, the break to the upside is a strong indication that prices are headed higher. So, perhaps this was just merely a pause in a strong uptrend. Breakout watch $6.66
Another requested analysis! Let's study AHT! 👍Ok, as @miccross86 requested, here it is my view about AHT!
We have multiple signs around. The 6.65 is the previous bottom, and if AHT breaks this price again tomorrow, it could drop to the next support areas, like the 6.34 (gap), or the 6.13.
Yes, AHT just hit the 20ma and it could go up from here, so, let’s wait more confirmation, ok? Watch the 6.65!
In the 4h chart, we traded outside the BB, but we closed inside it again, indicating some weakness. AHT did break the 6.65, but couldn’t close under it, and this is important! This price is an interesting point to keep our eyes on tomorrow.
The RSI has a divergence, and if AHT loses the 6.65 for good, the 6.13 is the first target, and the 20m is the second one.
Yes, the indicators are showing some weakness, and we are far from the 20ma, but the price didn’t confirm anything yet, ok? Again, focus on the 6.65 This stock can keep going up, breaking the short sellers on its way, so, be careful! And if you see a correction, no need to stress, as this is a bull trend!
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
AHT Update - Ran 100% since last postAHT ran 100% since last post. Ideally, would like to see a correction towards $5 level again and re-enter for a run to $12. Out of original position. Keeping a close eye on the watchlist.
It is never wrong to book profits whether its 1,2,3 or 50% imo.
Also, none of my posts should be taken seriously. Consult with your financial advisors. Strictly for entertainment purposes only.
WATCH AHTAHT looks to run back to levels seen last June, price broke through the 50 EMA today on the weekly chart and there has been A LOT OF VOLUME the last few trading periods.
It is up to $7.11 and got as high as $7.36 as I type this in after hours - after closing at $6.27.
I'm currently holding shares and in some 06/18 7.5 calls, my targets are between $8-$10, from there it could continue to run further.
Bull Flag $AHTLooks like a bull flag. DD aside, I like the way this is setting up.
17% short interest, plus they have eliminated a lot of debt ($533mm from last year) Reduced monthly cash utilization by 82%.
Their hotel brands range from Mid level (Hampton Inn) to Ultra Luxury (Ritz Carlton).
Well diversified asset base across 27 states.
Institutions have been buying $AHT shares-- BoA, JPM, GS, MS.
Also heavily mentioned in Discord groups and WSB
Country opening up on Independence Day so we should see Hospitality sector recovery in full swing.
T1-$7
T2-$15
T3-$30
have been in this one since $3
AHT by Request PTP and KeyCode Basic Breakout to high Re-AccumI see a text book break out past a previous high that will go into consolidation and Re-accumulate to reabsorb the float then go for a new high again.
I made a key code of the price action then found an exact match to this move in the past.... one that matched at lease 95% or better. That way if the move is that close to the same shape we have now it must mean the sentiment of the market was the same at that time. Therefore, the outcome should be the same coming out of the move. I then used PTP which is Past Trend Prediction by tracing the trend it made after this move in the past and projecting it forward on to the current move.
Then I took the same move on the Daily which is a different Time frame then the first..and found the same move with out a key and traced its path and projected it forward as well.
Sometimes I use about 5 other Price Action tricks I have have developed over the last 10 months or chart out the Curve and what Stage it is in. The Curve is my own brain child and I compare that to Wycoff method. Taking all of these into account You have several different approaches to confirming direction and intent of the institutional buyers and where Retail resides during this move.
If you would like to have more information or videos on Any of the ways I chart pls comment below. Like, follow, Subscribe...share.
Thank you,
iCantw84it
06.07.2021
AHT to 8-10? AHT is a play that we’ve seen last year make very clean cut moves to the upside and downside. Today on the Daily timeframe we have a close over the 200EMA for the first time in months. This is a HUGE sign that we’re gaining some bullish momentum that may just start to snowball into something much greater. (They’re even bringing dividends back for shareholders (Even better incentive for this push)
we have an Ascending triangle on the chart with a Huge dip (that is still a great entry point for going long) accumulating buying pressure to meet the demand. Looking to hold until 8 at a minimum. 10+ if signs continue to show bulls in control
Entry-TP-SL indicated in the chart.