Watchlist 2023-03-13 $BAC $GOLD $RF $SOFISPY - Gapping down with the same velocity and volume seen at the June low. VIX rising to 30, the advanced minus declining vol opening at -2900… This is a fire sale. However, SPY has fallen to the key 382 level in PM, if this level firms for the morning, we could see a bounce 385. With two major banks failing this last week, the predicted FED funds terminal rate is now split between a 25 bps hike to no hike at all.
With the FED backstopping SBV depositors, the fears of contagion may prevent further runs on other banks but it did not seem to prevent equity investors from running to the doors as other banks like FRC dropped another 60% in PM. Looking for higher lows in other weak banks the sell. BAC, SOFI
GOLD - obviously precious metals showing strength this morning with equities falling off a cliff. If GOLD can stay above 16.50, there is room for possibly another move to 17 (which is another ATR move). Don’t expect much more than that. Trying to time it with a lower high on the SPY.
RF - gapping down 3 ATRs to the key 15 pivot. An analyst upgraded RF to a strong buy after the 25% decline from Thursday. RF is dropping to the key pivot on low vol this morning. If it does flush below the pivot and reclaim, this could be a swing failure patter set. Up. If we see the flush then a pullback on sequential declining vol, that is a buy signal. Target to roughly 18.20
