THE WEEK AHEAD: TLRY, MU, CAG EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJThree earnings announcements interest me this coming week from a volatility contraction standpoint: TLRY (--/79),* announcing on Monday after market close; MU (45/51) -- Wednesday after market close, and CAG (86/45), Thursday, before market open.
CAG: Pictured here is a CAG April 18th 22/24/25 Jade Lizard, which was 1.03 at the mid as of Friday close, giving it a downside break even of 20.97 with no upside risk, since the credit received exceeds the risk of the short call aspect of the setup. It's a bullish assumption, theta positive setup with a net delta of 21.14 and a theta of 1.86.
Since it's gotten totally hammered since last earnings and does pay a dividend (.85 annualized; 3.69% yield), I could also see just going the most straightforward route, which would be short put, with the at-the-money 23 in the April monthly paying 1.11 with a downside break even of 21.89.
TLRY: The April18th 55/60/85/90 iron condor's paying 1.63 at the mid, but I'd be picky and hold out for one-third the width of the wings in credit or pass on partaking, since the markets in the underlying are wider than I'd like. For the young at heart, the 60/85 one standard deviation move break even short strangle's paying 4.11, but would plan on a touch of price discovery if you want in.
MU: The April 18th 40 short straddle is paying 4.53 at the mid and is about as delta neutral as you can get (.78) with a theta of 6.7 and break evens of 35.47/44.53. For those who need more room to be wrong and/or delta balance without going inverted: the 35/44 short strangle is paying 1.43 with one standard deviation break evens on both sides (33.57/45.43).
On the exchange-traded fund front, premium selling is somewhat thin here with GDXJ (34/26), GDX (31/23), TBT (23/20), OIH (21/28), and IYR (19/12) rounding out the type five sorted by rank; XOP (18/29), OIH (21/28), EWZ (5/28), USO (10/27), and GDXJ (34/26), if sorted by 30-day implied. I'm still short straddling XOP (See Post Below), but don't have anything on in gold (GDX, GDXJ), so may putz with something small and nondirectional there. However, neither the GDX nor GDXJ at-the-money short straddles appear to be paying the 10% I generally like to see out of those -- the GDXJ May 17th 32 is paying 2.80 versus a 32.33 share price; the GDX May 17th 22, 1.67 versus a 22.30 share price.
* -- TLRY doesn't yet have a 52-week rank metric, since it hasn't been around that long yet.
