CMG trade ideas
$CMG Reversal trade in Chipotle Mexican GrillEntry level $745 = $target price $800 = Stop loss $723
Limited risk long entry with the rising 200MA acting as your stop loss.
CMG has had a massive gain in 2019 but has recently suffered from rotation back into tech, MCD had a impact on dragging the sector down also.
Its very difficult to defend the valuation and fundamentals of the company but analysts and investors seem to love it, the recent pullback seemingly presents a good trading opportunity,
Average analysts price target $843
P/E ratio is very high at 67.
Company profile
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. engages in the development and operation of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants throughout the U.S. It offers focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls and salads prepared using classic cooking methods. The company was founded by Steve Ells in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, CA.
Strat 9: CMG 725-727PT, 737.5 Put(1) SL at Strike price
(2) Price Action breaking down toward the green MA, similar to SHOP
(3) Risk Reward: 1:10
(4) The main reason for the naked puts are because the VIX is up, SPY staggering, and strong down trend, plus quick retest to prev swing low ever 2-4 days
CMG playing hard to getI haven't given up on CMG but a daily close below $760.50 would mean a gap fill to $746 likely. Waiting for a close above $782 and then I think we are in for 20-30+ point run in short order with longer term view that we head to the upper end of the balance area.. 2 ways I like to play this... L common or 2 weeks out $800 calls while in the current price range of $765-$770 with stop below $757, targeting a move $790-$810+. The other way to play is wait for a solid move back into balance and either L upon that occurring or wait for a move up, then retest of the $782/$784 area for an anticipated move higher up. Look at the weekly/monthly chart too, to see we broken out and retesting the breakout area.
Start 7: CMG 770-760 Debit Put, Morning Star play(1) Low volume gap up Open, Initial trend down, Rising Vix
(2) Tuesday $20 move down, looking to repeat today or tomorrow.
(3) Consolidating at low of day as of the past 3 hours
(4) Break of Short term uptrend with consolidation
(5) 780 was a critical level, 1 HR wicks rejecting move above 780
(6) Drop may happen at break of 1HR 14MA(New Addition to help confirm my strat)
PT 760: calculated with ATR and prev drop range.
1.86 /c
9.30 PT
1:5 RR
CMG - Trade setupThe break of yesterdays hammer candle is pretty significant. If we can break my entry line I'll be playing this to the 200MA on the daily chart. Lets let it break this gap from July 24th to make sure we get no bounce. This could also be a good buying or bullish swing trade if we bounce off of this entry line..
SHORT CMG - Topping patternCMG following ER gap down, breaking down here. Weekly chart targetting 750, then 725/730
CMGSo earnings were sold. Stock dropped 70 pts to bottom of recent 3 month range. Do we break down from here and continue run lower? I dont think that is the most likely scenario. IMO we bounce, or we drop below balance, stop some longs then move higher. I just dont think we liquidate much lower. I think this is an area where value seekers buy/add.
CMG ending the 5th leg of 5 wavesCMG ending the 5th leg of 5 waves
How fast can it get to $250, time will tell. My guess 3-6 months.
CMG Update (Important)CMG stock took a bad turn with its last-minute reversal, which unfortunately went below the critical level of 842 it took the edge off the bullish sentiment. It's now difficult to say if it'll break out above, as it missed the previous high of September 9th. The Heikin Ashi candle on the 'weekly' is still bullish and so are many other indicators, so I would personally rate this neutral into Earnings. Get out before close, or balance your trade.
CMG Pre-Earnings UpdateCMG broke out above it's 'diamond' formation, labeling it officially a diamond continuance (and not a reversal ). 9 out of 10 indicators confirm the stock to be bullish towards 900 post earnings, 950'ish by end of this month, and the 1000 mark can be broken by the end of this year. I did use some old-school tricks to get higher precision trend-lines, so I've adjusted those accordingly. Simply great technicals throughout, no major hick-ups or mentionable signs of weakness. Incredible to see this stock continuing its incredible streak, which is rather rare to find nowadays. Will update one more time next week before ER due on Tuesday AMC.
CMG Bearish DivergenceNot trading or financial advice. Bearish Divergence, good time for puts in my opinion. Goodluck.
$CMG Not for everyone but damn that daily- ER todayMassive breakout lined up on this one Will be watching in the coming days may go through 1000
10/21/2019 - $CMG - Potential Spread Play Tomorrow$CMG is another good candidate for a spread play going into earnings tomorrow. At the moment, it is hitting mid-term resistance around $852 - 857, with potential wiggle room to the upside going north of $900. The downside potential; however, is far greater ranging from $807 to $779. Will reassess this tomorrow depending on the IV and Theta for a spread play.
NOTE: In this type of setup, i would normally be long given the ascending triangle and the bullish trend - but i wouldn't jump to conclusions too fast too soon, esp. during earnings.
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$CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Bullish pre earnings. CMG remains one of the most popular at the moment among investors and Analysts.
Currently in consolidation a break above $845 could lead to 10% gains in the short term, earnings are on the horizon, so any disappointment could bring significant downside.
P/E ratio 95, High but seems to be forgiven, potential growth prospects are held in higher regards.
Company profile
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. engages in the development and operation of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants throughout the U.S. It offers focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls and salads prepared using classic cooking methods. The company was founded by Steve Ells in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, CA.
CMG Coiling (Update)Looks like it dropped out of the big wedgie, but now it's coiling for earnings. Could go either way, though I would tend to be bearish on this overbloated burrito fart. Waaaay overpriced.
I'm not playing it, been burned on earnings too many times in the past month. In fact, I haven't played this one since they stopped food poisoning people, lol. I also don't eat there, the food there gives me the chits.
Diamond BreakoutHere's a rather rare find. There's another spot for a 'weekly' candle within the diamond, and on the next one we should know for certain in which direction it'll go. Diamonds tend to 'reverse' more often than they do an upward 'continuance'. In CMG's case the candles reach higher at the top but close lower, thereby suggesting a downward bias. In addition, the main (middle) candle, also called "stem" is negative, which also has a bearish bias. Last but not least, the 'weekly' PSAR break makes this even worse. Diamonds always breakout with high volume, which makes this ideal for options trading either way. This is likely to drop towards 720-730 on earnings release.
Watch how the next CMG charts will copy this ;)
Cheers
CMG ShortChipotle seems to be a little overbought right now. First off, there is a large amount of volume, but the candlestick is small, meaning that bears are mounting on the pressure to short Chipotle. The stochastic oscillator also indicates that Chipotle is overbought, and there might be a correction soon. RSI also indicates overbought levels.
