CMG - Feeling Fresh 2.0?The bullish count for CMG... Wave II was 3 years, I expect wave IV to last as long if not longer. GLTA!
CMG trade ideas
CMG - Feeling Fresh?Idea behind this Wave 4 is that Wave 2 lasted roughly 3 years, meaning if this is a wave 4 it should last a similar time period. This count fits the bill and has the look of a wave 4. As most counts at this stage, it could morph into an extended wave (v) of 3 and reach new highs, but until that happens with conviction, this is the primary count. GLTA!
Taking a shot at the Big Dog ChipotleI have been wanting to short Chipotle for a while now but It has been in this topping pattern for a while and so I never took a position. I wanted to throw out some ideas here.
So the PE ratio of Chipotle is 50... I know no one is really using PE to judge companies anymore, but 50 feels very high to me. The old rule of thumb is that a company with a PE of 50 should be expected to grow to 10x its current size within the next 10 years. This is why such inflated PE has been used for Tech stocks that can exponentially grow a platform and users. Chipotle has a tough competition and it does not seem to be as unique as back when its only competition was Subway. The first mover advantage of Chipotle has faded and its uniqueness has started to be questioned.
Honestly from a social perspective Chipotle is almost at the point where it could be called the Panda Express of Mexican food. This feels like a "Blow-off" top that benefited heavily from the Chipotle App during Covid (Being able to pick up your food by ordering online was a huge boost and great idea) But the app and curbside pickup is now a mainstay of many restaurant chains.
I also look at what the insiders are doing, the CEO is selling stock and the Chief Restaurant Officer has been selling. The majority of insiders (90%) are bearish.
I love taking shots at the big dogs that go unquestioned, so I am taking one at Chipotle.
I say the price is going to 800s within the next 2 years.
Yup Chipotle will lose 30-50% of its value in 2 years.
Watch for a break of the white line around 1400, as soon as that support acts as resistance and we fail to break back up that would be where I enter my position.
Just my humble opinion.
CMG Weekly H&S Forming Into +GEX Level - weekly is forming right shoulder in distribution cycle right at 1600 psych + positive gamma level
- consistent with /ES local top of 4060 (or 4200 on impulse wave)
- invalidated if break above 1630s
- high risk counter trend trade against current market conditions & positive gamma ratios
- BTO Feb 1400p @ 10.85
- IV on puts is cheap + upcoming ER should elevate Feb premiums
- gamma conditions for this week and next week's expiry outlined below
Ticker: NYSE:CMG
Exp. Dates. Greater Than: 2023-01-27
Total_OI:= 39443.00
COTMC:= 1694.77
CITMP:= 1634.34
COI:= 1600.00
plus_GEX:= 1600.00
Spot_Price:= 1596.86
COTMP:= 1571.13
Pos_Trans:= 1535.00
ZeroGEX:= 1505.00
CITMC:= 1493.08
SMA50:= 1488.47
EMA21:= 1487.95
Neg_Trans:= 1440.00
POI:= 1400.00
minus_GEX:= 1400.00
GEX_Ratio:= 1.63
Ticker: NYSE:CMG
Exp. Dates. Greater Than: 2023-02-03
Total_OI:= 35202.00
COTMC:= 1694.77
CITMP:= 1634.34
COI:= 1600.00
plus_GEX:= 1600.00
Spot_Price:= 1596.86
Pos_Trans:= 1575.00
COTMP:= 1571.13
ZeroGEX:= 1505.00
CITMC:= 1493.08
SMA50:= 1488.47
EMA21:= 1487.95
Neg_Trans:= 1440.00
POI:= 1400.00
minus_GEX:= 1400.00
GEX_Ratio:= 1.49
$CMG Pulling Back$CMG on pullback watch (not while its falling).
3 lower lows after a thrust up. Should find buyers here if we are to resume building the right side of this base.
$CMG tight pivot$CMG confluence of down trending line (red dotted) and tight pivot right at its 200 MA.
This is way too early for Minervini style setup so know that.
I'll just be watching. would rather let this setup a bit higher after a confirmed down trend break.
None the less, tight pivot.
Descending TriangleNeutral until broken.
No recommendation
Short interest around 3.8%
Price remains above the .382 of the trend up.
Resistance trendline has been rejected twice.
$CMG with a Neutral outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Neutral outlook for $CMG after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 42.86%.
Bullish for earnings report beatRsi strength crossing above 50, adx shows the previous downtrend weakening changing trends, dmi staying to form bullish, staying above the moving averages looks bullish, if it had broke below just before earnings I would have a bearish outlook, it looks as if the majority of Chipotle investors are going long into earnings, my research shows they are highly expected to beat expectations which should have bullish sentiment for the stock and send it higher. All 13 out of 13 analysts gave it a strong buy on Monday according to zachs which ranks it as a #1 strong buy and earnings beat also.
CMGI will give the name CHIPOLETE. Overprices alr4eady above the sky. Chipolete your destiny trendline down . Short this mtf
CMG - Dip Then RiseCMG has raised itself above a dominant down channel on this 4Hr chart
This is all contained within a large megaphone structure
I expect price to dip and retest the top of the down channel , then this allows price to rise further up
CMG: Signals of topping - Reversal inboundLooking at the bearish divergence and fib retracements, CMG appears to have completed a fairly strong corrective wave after an initial sell-off form ATH. This suggest a C wave is inbound, either flat or a strong impusle leg down. Upside limited considering that the consumer behavior that led to strength supporting the current levels is likely to shift again in the near future
CMG breaks out and confirms a BUYCMG breaks out of countertrend channel, retests and attempts to push higher
Bull FlagPossible stop below bottom trendline of the flag.
This looks like a pull back may be coming. A lot of green with an anemic candle up there right now.
This candle could change by close.
No recommendation.
Maybe watch overbought levels.
RSI is set on 80 and 30.
$CMG Bull Flag SetupFor the bull flag lovers out there.
$CMG setting up that handle while the market pulling back. looks orderly and something you want to keep an eye on.
Time to short Chipotle companyChipotle hit upper limit of the trend. Yesterday I bought Dec 21st 1500$ PUTS at 9000$ average. Max stop-loss 2000$, max gain 10000$. Very high reward play.
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG options ahead of earningsLooking at the Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG options chain today, i would buy the $1200 puts with
2022-9-16 expiration date for about
$36.42 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CMG - Strong UptrendAn Ascending Broadening Wedge has put price slightly above the strong uptrend in green
Price will fall back to this uptrend and allow a recovery at this level ( as indicated by the price label)
Daily Chart
RectangleNeutral pattern until trendline is broken.
Horizontal trading channel with the top trendline being resistance and the bottom is support.
5 candles touched or came close support at last low.
Targets for a break to the downside are over the rectangle, with target 1 in larger type. Target 2 in smaller type if target 1 is passed.
The same for targets for a break to the upside and are over the rectangle.
No recommendation//Be safe, Laura
Seeing alot of possible bear pennants forming?And I do say potential... we will see how they play out. But I am seeing this on a lot of stocks....
