cvxDown trend should be put at strike price 85.4
But down trend was conflicted with bullish bar, then 2nd plan is call at strike price 85.74
CVX trade ideas
Chevron Corp -CVX -Daily -Reshorting here on the bounceFollowing the previous trade-plan to sell on a bounce.
The CCI is lifting just like the rally in January. A reading of "0" in CCI would be fine if it CVX heads up again tomorrow.
The downside is to 119 target for this next swing trade down.
Tim 4:15PM EST 124.96 last
Chevron Corp.: How about a Swing?The Head&Shoulders on Chevron Corp is still valid, until the rejection level is breached. Although the Throwback faltered, which has sent the equity towards the rejection level, breaking out of the Neckline, will send CVX seeking 77.31, with 82.73 as a primary objective.
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: CVX IS ON MACRO RISKChevron Corp is on risk to fall further on macro and micro basis.
On long term basis, despite price is trading within 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, it fell below lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, risking more downside.
On short term basis price is in fully fledged downtrend, trading below 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly mean.
Downside risk will remain until price gets back above 93, which turns out to be a key level - 4 pivot levels converged there now (see chart) and breaking above it will cancel all current downtrends.
CVX Bull Put Spread and or sell putsCVX has made a strong bullish moved from it low about 102.36 close on 1/30/14 There has been a strong gap and is trading above 10 20 and 50 EMA , and just closed above the 100 SMA. The gap at 107.37 should offer a strong support for a BPS 107/106 EXp 2/27 for .11 or 3/6 for .16.
Should your want to own the shares a 101 put sale will bring in .65 approx.
POTENTIAL LONG ON CVXDouble bottom with confluence of a potential long term bull trendline; reversal candle on increased volume; stochastic divergence; downward channel into a potential broader bullish channel.
Not an entry yet, simply a possible bottom, need to see a bullish move (jump the creek - Wyckoff), then a small retracement (back up to the creek - Wyckoff) with another reversal candle pattern for entry back up to the top of the channel. This current bar could be a "spring" (AKA Terminal Shakeout - Wyckoff).
CVX Not Looking So Hot...Monthly candle chart...
The bearish Moving Average Cross (9 month, 21 month) is by far the most concerning due to the fact that it has so accurately marked the early stages of large downtrends.
This stock has an unhealthy love for everything fibonacci....retracements, extensions, you name it... (some shown).
What appears to be the 4th month after the monthly PSAR flipped to "bearish" looks to be only the beginning.
CVX cracked the 200 week simple moving average support (not shown), which is never a good thing.
The drop in crude oil prices have hurt the industry and therefore CVX.
Not that it will do much good for quite a while, but I am thinking that the bottom of this decline will be in the mid-80's, at which point this becomes an excellent buy.
The only thing that I see as bullish is the respectable dividend, although it is not so high that it will prevent further decline.
...wait and enter in the 80's OR short sell if you choose.
Binary Event - Bullish moveCVX is a correlative equity to XOM. These are consist in trend moves comparable to other equities in their sector. You want volatility for the option's play. Right now, CVX is at a crossroads with an IV of 73 and HV 71. With earnings coming up, we're expecting a shift north till the end of this year's first quarter. That's a good play to go deep in options. FEB (22) Call Strike 105 is our target for front month. APR 15 (78) Call Strike is 110 and/or 115. The decrease in IV over the next months in consideration of the options months shows favorable signs of going north. Tomorrow is we'll know.
CVX, $100 buy at earningsCVX Bearish pennant seems to be holding.
Moving into earnings now. CVX is in a weakened position, will of course oil, slumping...but also strong dollar exposure. CVX has a bunch of big gas projects overseas (Australia) and the strong dollar, weak gas, and high execution cost overseas may just be the drag to break it to the down side.
Volume is nice here...strong buyers at the bottom of the wedge, no one wants it at the top of the wedge.
Should crash down to $100 at earnings and get support with strong dividend buyers
***Overall***
If you love the long term $100 is a great place to buy.
Chevron - CVX - Daily - Anatomy of the recent TRENDSHere is the method that I look for trade setups:
Look for RgMov to reach a 2 month high and then buy dips to oversold in 11-day CCI.
Look and see where the quarterly "key hidden levels" are for support or resistance.
Buy only if the stock climbs above the lowest high in the dip. Exit when CCI reaches +100 or falls under a previous day's low.
On shorts, sell only when it drops under the highest low of a rally. Cover when CCI reaches -100 or climbs over a previous day's high.
CVX has been a money machine with all but 1 losing trade giving it a batting average of more than 800. (5 out of 6)
Tim 11:12AM EST 9/25/2014 Thursday
