DAL trade ideas
Fly eagles fly $DAL $UAL $LUVI'm still tracking the airlines with a big smile despite a vicious retest of "range breakouts" that occurred last month. Delta is my chart favorite. This is less of a range breakout and more of a slow grind up. Currently showing some nice divergence on the hourly near long term resistance. I only buy on strength so I will wait for a SOLID higher low/higher high.
The options are trading tight and deep - aka good spreads and great open interest/volume across many months and strikes. The implied volatility is low, so the options are relatively cheap. Since this stock is grinding higher slowly, I am happy to buy time when the IV is so low,
DALDoji candle today sitting at the support area hopefully starts to see green tomorrow. But Wait for confirmation before going long.
Delta Airlines: bump and runWe can see a clear bump and run reversal pattern. Now a return to the main trend is likely to happen. This is an attractive risk reward! I'm short in Air France KLM.
Buy DAL here, stop at 54.88...expect a 5 to 1 tradeStock broke to the Upside today out of Market Profile pattern. Delta has also consistently outperformed SPY over the past 50 days.
DAL: Removing earnings risk while keeping upside exposure.This post takes over from the previous one (see below), as we propose to take full profits ahead of earnings publication on July 13.
The logic is to entirely remove any risk related to earnings disappointment, while keeping full upside exposure.
The cost of this strategy will be < 2% (to be put in perspective with the 22.5% we have achieved so far on the long stock position).
BUY DAL 21July17 $56 CALLS at $0.96/Share (indicative, as per last close).
RISK REWARD
If the stock flies, you make money on the call and can optionally convert back into your stock position.
If the stock trades down, your hedging strategy would have worked and you might be able to sell OTM puts to offset the call premium.
The worst-case scenario is if the stock remains flat: You would have lost your position and your premium.
Buying DALDAL has been in a bull trend thanks to its fundamental ( goof finacial stragth, good momentun, and midium risk). I think that DAL will be more bullish due to the forecast of its earnings.
delta airlines ...rising uptrend ...
i see on chart a trend and a correction and ending that on fib prz (50-61.8)...
and now its a powerful breakout by a big bullish candle....
buy
Bearish Doubling Down For Delta AirlinesOn April 26, 2017, Delta Airlines ( DAL ) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 41 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.194%. It has a median loss of 6.485 % and maximum loss of 40.441% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 52.8562. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock recently moved up into a more neutral movement state.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.9842. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0188 and the negative is at 0.8566. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, but the positive is dropping and negative is rising after today's session.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 71.7501 and D value is 61.2473. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is approaching overbought territory and should cycle down soon.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 3.82% over the next 15 trading days.
Just two days prior to our current downward DMA cross, Delta crossed over its 150 DMA. When the downward cross occurs a few trading days after an upward cross, the stock always drops. Since the end of the financial crisis in 2009 this has occurred in January 2011, October 2011, December 2011 (3 times), October 2012 (4 times), November 2012, July 2015, and April 2016. The stock dropped 6.369%, 12.993%, 5.483%, 3.879%, 2.317%, 3.535%, 4.814%, 5.100%, 5.572%, 3.560%, 1.261%, and 13.494% respectively. The median drop of these 12 occasions is 4.957%.
DAL: Buy on good earningsFAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT
DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has found a temporary bottom and that the short-term picture looks positive.
SUPPORTIVE FUNDAMENTALS
In addition to the improving technical picture, the news flow from the industry has been supportive, as airlines have been publishing ever improving yield/occupancy numbers. As a confirmation, the DAL earnings have just come out and the stock is indicated up some 3% pre-market on the news.
COMPELLING RISK-REWARD
Strategy: Plain vanilla BUY at the market
Target: $50/share then $52/share
Stop-loss: $44/share
Minimum R/R: 1.72x
Alternatively sell a put at the stop-loss ($44) to finance a slightly OTM call.
Significant Bearish Moving Average Cross For DeltaOn April 11, 2017, the Delta Airlines ( DAL ) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 150 DMA. Historically this has occurred 9 times and the stock drops a minimum of 4.371%. It has a median loss of 11.715% and maximum loss of 42.018% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.2516. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but has been trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -22.0315. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0215. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down, but at a decision point. This indicator could produce a crossover and the stock could move up.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 23.7070 and D value is 21.8876. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock could begin a reversal, however, it could still drop to an oversold level over the next 5-10 trading days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. A strong resistance down trend has been taking shape since March 7. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 4.00% over the next 15 trading days.
DAL - Bounce to $50.00DAL appears to have bounced off support from the descending channel that it's been trading within since the beginning of the year, with a solid engulfing bar at support accompanied by a surge in volume. I'm expecting to see a move up to channel resistance at $50.00
DALToo strong resistance to break and after its third attempt, it obviously will need to rest before another go.
$DAL looks like its continuing its trend$DAL is breaking out of its cloud which is a sign that it may be continuing its trend. The company has been outperforming. Going long with an option with a an expiration about a month from now.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
