DE trade ideas
DE - Time to Sell? DE has just broken below the 9 day and 50 day MA and has ended on a BE candle.
The RSI seemed to be trying to break above the 50 level, but it got rejected. It's been hovering back and forth in the same range for a while now - I'm tempted to take a sell position, with a SL of 110.20 -
This Is Why I Am Shorting $DE First Thing On Monday...Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) has had an impressive move since it put in a bottom in early 2016. In January 2016 it was trading at $70 and now finds itself near $108. This is a whopping move of 54% in a year. A move of this magnitude alone does not dictate a short swing trade. However, when you see the stock hitting a trend line connecting the former all-time highs it sure does! Simply connect the highs from 2007, 2008 and 2011. Note how that trend line stretches all the way to current levels, exactly where Deere & Company is trading. This is a huge sell signal on the stock. If you want to take it a step further, look at the current valuation with Deere & Company trading at at 22.5 P/E ratio. Historically, this is extremely high. The coming drop should take the stock back to $80 in late 2017. Enjoy the ride and profit alongside me.
DE- $90 Decembre Put option as Earnings playStrath consider $90 Decembre Put option as Earnings play
Possible Long Setup$DE is in an ascending triangle with a potential to fill the gap up to $90.50. I will wait and see if the price breaks above the triangle at $84.90 then go long for a target of $90.50. A more aggressive entry could be the point where the price touches the rising trend line, lets see.
Bear flag on DEPrice action has formed a consolidation triangle or bear flag on DE. Wait for confirmation of a break out of the triangle with large volume to short. Price should fall to at least $73 on next move.
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS VIA OPTIONS -- PCLN, ESRX, DEI ground through a large number of next week's earnings announcements, thinking I might find a nugget or two to play via options, but was somewhat disappointed.
I've never played ESRX before, which announces on Tuesday after market close, probably because I'm not a fan of anything remotely pharmaceutical for these plays beyond the "uber" names like LLY and AMGN. Price gyrations can be wilder than the garden variety earnings announcement and ESRX has been subject to being "Hillaried," a phenom which can occur at any time ... .
Naturally, there's PCLN, which announces earnings on Wednesday, but the liquidity in the options is horrible, with wide bid/ask spreads which increases the likelihood that you won't get a fill on any setup at a fair price -- at least at the mid. Given the quality of the liquidity, however, it might be worth attempting a fill of a setup a good ways above the mid price and see if it goes ... . If it doesn't fill, pass on a play; it just isn't worth chasing price on an underlying with options as crappy as PCLN's.
DE, which announces on Friday before market open. My guess is that the company's performance -- like other machinery companies with heavy export reliance (e.g., CAT) -- will continue to flag on Greenback strength, so I may look to skew any setup a tad bearish, particularly since the bounce off of 1/20 low of 70.16 (even though I usually assume a directionally neutral stance on these plays, since it's impossible to gauge market reaction to any particular announcement).
Naturally, there are other earnings announcements that could be played in some other fashion (e.g., trading the underlying directly), but these are the only ones having the hallmarks of good premium selling plays: (1) high implied volatility rank; (2) high implied volatility; (3) option liquidity (with the exception of PCLN); and (4) the availability of weeklies.
DE weekly range expansion offers Nice short here.
Entry: 74.11
Target: 68.03
Stop: 76.29
3 reasons:
1. Range expansion from a 15 week mode
2. Downtrend in RgMov
3. Weekly range expansion buy has now been terminated
GL!
DE Short With the crush in
Commodities I think farmers will be hesitant to buy
new implements An ideal entry point would be at
the Kijun line inside the cloud. DE has broken a major
Support level and is
trading below the Kumo Cloud today
Deere John is a breakout candidate$DE
If you look at the monthly chart John Deere could test that All-time high it bounced off of in 2011 (and big round number) at $99.80
Zooming in on the weekly also shows a close above $93 is out of the resistance line in the top of the monthly pennant I drew.
Buy the stock now or on a Friday close above $93
or
Delta 40, JAN16 97.5 Call is a cheaper way of getting long it was only at 3.50 this morning. If DE takes longer than 8 months to test the all-time high then that is the only con to buying calls.
The weekly chart has the ATR trail stop strategy indicator** that I like to use on trending stocks. The ATR trail stop is the yellow dot trailing below today's candle (blue dot if trending lower). A close below this level is when I am stopped out. I personally have been trading the ATRPeriod value at 10 with the ATRmultiplier value at 2.
That said, today the stop would be below $89 but know that this value is adjusted at every closing price.
**Big ups to Sylvain Vervoort (or user HPotter on here) for writing this and publicly posting the script to get this strategy on charts.
