GFI: some upside potential?A price action above 23500 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 24900.
Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
The target price is set at 26500.
The stop-loss price is set at 22400.
Might aim for its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
GFI trade ideas
Gold fields not that glistening right nowInv Cup and Handle pattern has formed on the daily.
We've had the price break below the Brim level but only barely. As a conservative trader, we'll need a stronger break down before there are any fireworks. So I'll be watching this one carefully.
Other indicators show upside to come.
21>7 (Bearish)
Price >200 (Price heading towards it).
RSI<50 (Sell divergence)
Target R156.86
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Gold Fields mining company, a South African gold mining firm.
Company Background:
Gold Fields Limited is a globally diversified gold mining company headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. It is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world.
Founded:
Gold Fields was founded in 1887 by Cecil Rhodes and Charles Rudd in what is now the city of Johannesburg.
Operations:
The company has operations in multiple countries, including South Africa, Australia, Ghana, Peru, and the United States.
South African Operations:
Gold Fields' South African operations include the South Deep mine, located in the Witwatersrand Basin. South Deep is one of the largest gold mines in the world and one of the deepest mines.
International Operations:
Gold Fields' international operations cover a diverse range of mines, including open-pit and underground mines in various regions around the world.
$JSEGFI - Gold Fields: Five Waves Down, Relief Rally ImminentGold Fields had a stellar run from September 2022 rallying from 12662 to a new all-time high of 32652 in May 2023.
This advance unfolded as a five wave impulse with wave ((v)) being extended which is common in commodities and commodity stocks.
As expected after a five wave rally, a correction has been price decline from 32652 to a recent low of 23746 for a 27% decline.
This sell-off has unfolded in five overlapping waves which fit the profile of a leading diagonal for wave A.
There is not enough evidence yet that a bottom is in at 23746 for a relief rally but a correction for wave B is imminent.
Goldfields - Next level up- The stock is in the process of pulling back after a major rally which saw a high of R326
- Next major level is R247 where a "possible" relief bounce may occur. This is the previous break high and corresponds with the 20ema on the weekly.
- I still see the stock pulling back to R210 and possibly R170 over the longer term but as always, i will trade it level by level.
UPDATE GoldFields slight pull back before heads to target R346W Formation formed on GFI a while ago.
The price broke up and since then it was moving up for the first few weeks.
Then when the gold price started its consolidation, so did the gold companies.
This has formed a falling wedge. Once the price breaks above the pattern, we will see it continue its upside.
RSI>50 - Bullish
7>21>200
Target R346.54
REALITY:
Holding onto this trade as a trader is very long in terms of duration.
Not only because we prefer our nature to be short lived with each market.
But also the Daily Interest charges add on. So even though the trade is well in the money, when you look at your portfolio you're earning less that you should when it hits the take profit.
Just something to keep in mind in the futre.
GFI: Time to Lock in ProfitsGFI has had a good run, now is the time to be considering taking all or most profits off the table. The share price is within the vicinity of a trendline that has led to rejection of further upside. The path is a sketch of expected price trajectory, the end of path does not denote place of ending price. Of interest is the pink upward trendline closing the gap from 9 November 2022 in the process.
There is risk of a push higher after a brief pullback, one should be aware not to be shaken out. Alternatively one can keep long open but short an over-extended miner such as Anglogold or Harmony.
Speculative Idea: Sell GFIPublished to our client platform pre-market. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch with me today.
Please Read The Full Note For Specific Detail: Speculative, high risk trading opportunity thus smaller positions may be applicable. Preferred Sell Above 24400c. Following it's strong, multi-week run, the price action and technical momentum ratings suggest the potential for a slowdown in upward momentum, followed by a short term bearish reversal. The past two days have seen 2 'doji' candles being printed (potentially reflecting indecision) while several time frames point to an overbought position. Specifically, the 7 and 14-day RSI's are at 92 and 83 respectively. Price Action Scenario #1: The share opens and trades higher on an intraday basis, however, fails to hold above the highs of the prior two sessions. Failure to hold above 24200c supports the thesis that upward momentum is slowing. Price Action Scenario #2: The share opens lower and attempts to trade above the last close on an intraday basis. Failure to push back above 24100c would support a bearish stance. Last night we saw a risk on in the U.S which may see a temporary (ultra short term) slowdown in the 'safe-haven buying' in gold. Closing above 24800c would temporarily invalidate the idea. This is NOT the stop-loss but rather the pivot that would maintain the thesis for the bulls. Time Stop: 30 May 2023. Please Note: Following the publication of this idea, potential macroeconomic or company specific news may influence the price action dynamics of the share. To manage risk traders could also consider using a trailing stop-loss to protect capital and scale out of the position as price approaches the target (ideally above 60% to 70% of the intended gain).
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 24400
Target: 22200
Stop-loss: 25900
Gold Fields showing strong upside still to R346.54W Formation formed on GFI.
It looks like a CUp and Handle but the second rounding bottom is more than 50% of the cup, so we call this a Short Formed W Pattern.
In some cases, you can say it's even stronger than the basic as the price failed to make a new low - showing how strong the buying is.
RSI>80 - Bullish
7>21>200
Target R346.54
GFIFrom a note that I wrote:
If you would like to read the full note, you are more than welcome to reach out to me.
At the top of this week I updated my short term view on GFI, highlighting the levels which I thought were important.
The structure I saw was a megaphone technical formation where the upper boundary is potentially an ultra short term selling range.
This level also coincides with the prior breakdown level in April 2022.
The below chart is 'current', reflecting today's price action
Notice the long upper tail thus far reflecting ‘some’ ultra short term selling?
Most recently (28-Feb) I highlighted GFI (at R166) with the re-test of the prior breakout level and 'unfilled gap' being the re-accumulation zone. The share now trades at around R223 (a +34% move over the three and a half weeks)
The original (time-stamped) chart is shown below.
I must admit was a little too conservative on my call around gold shares as DRD Gold has now appreciated by 68% over the 5 months.
My idea was for a long entry at 957c on 24 October 2022.
I will likely update medium and long term views on the gold shares in the coming days.
UPDATE: Goldfields hit stop loss - but I warned you Inv Rev Cup and Handle formed and the price broken below the Brim level.
There were mixed signals with the indicators and I warned you that we need the price to break and confirm below the 200MA.
Which obviously, it tested reversed, Smart Money jumped in swept liquidity and pushed the price up.
However, it's not just Smart Money to blame.
Gold had a bit of reverse as investors had no idea where to put their money in.
They are freaking out with the bank crisis in 2023. They are freaking out with Silvergate and crypto exchanges still liquidating.
They are freaking out with these fears of high interest rates coming in the US.
So as bitter as it hit the stop loss, it gives us a fantastic hedge for long side with Gold incase we get a pump catalyst with the market soon (which I doubt).
I will be waiting for bulish signals to buy Goldfields. Let's see.
Gold Fields sparked a cautionary SHORT signal to R127.72Inv Rev Cup and Handle has formed on Gold Fields.
The breakout is quite strong and looks like the price is ready to plummet.
The only obstacle in the way is the 200MA which investors might try to buy and hold the price up.
We are seeing mixed signals but the inclination is more SHORT.
21>7 0 bearish
Price> 200 mixed
Target R127.72
ABOUT
Gold Fields Limited (Founded in 1887 by Cecil Rhodes and Charles Rudd) is a South African gold mining company headquartered in Johannesburg which started in Witwatersrand, with operations in South Africa, Ghana, Peru, and Australia.
Gold Fields is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world, with a market capitalization of around $10 billion as of February 2023.
The company produces around 2 million ounces of gold annually from its mines in South Africa, Ghana, and Australia.
Gold Fields employs around 10,000 people in South Africa and is one of the country's largest private sector employers.
$JSEGFI - Gold Fields: Surf The Waves, Fade The NewsOk, I will be the first to admit that i look at Gold Fields more than any other stock, but there are reasons for that.
I spent over a decade in the mining industry, two of which were at Gold Fields' South Deep operation.
Secondly, I love commodity stocks as they are more volatile and cyclical, providing good trading opportunities.
Gold Fields released FYE'22 results today and they were pretty flat.
The last time i covered GFI was on the 17th of January 2023 and i cautioned not to chase it.
The share price reversed almost immediately and has plunged 23% from the 21687 peak.
The rally from 12662 to 21687 is a clear five wave advance and i am tentatively labelling the whole advance as wave ((a)) of a minimum three wave move.
The current sell-off has been strong and there is no evidence of a turn around just yet so it's best to sit on your hands and watch price action.
For the bullish continuation outlook to remain valid, price must hold above 12662.
#JSE Goldfields bouncing on vwap and horizontal supportKeep an eye on Gold Fields, after a roaring run from the lows seen in September last year and touching a high of R215 in January, the stock has corrected in February to an important level which could provide support. R175 is where we find both horizontal support and the anchored vwap from the Sep 22' lows.
If we do bounce we could run up to R198 - R199 where it could potentially form a head & shoulders top so i would look at buying a reversal off R175 with a fairly tight stop and a target back to where a right shoulder could form at R198.
GFI trade update not lookign good - We hit a red flagGold Fields we made a BROAD analysis over the medium term.
As it is one of the smaller gold companies, I like to widen the stop loss and take profit accordingly.
So, it's not hit our stop loss yet at R173.80. But it has broken below the uptrend.
Best we can do is just wait, hold and hope.
But if it doesn't work out it's just another 1.5% loss on the portfolio, never a biggy.