Waiting for more information Waiting for new structure to form to see where we could go from here. Currently In limbo.
GME trade ideas
GME price pattern for recent ATM offering based on prior ATMsAfter having a look at how GME performed during the last three ATM offerings (June '21, May '24, June '24) I expect something like the above chart for the current ATM offering.
After opening at a lower price than the previous closing price, GME tends to pump a bit (something like 5-15%) and forms a pretty linear selling off until the ATM is done.
The recent ATM offering sells 20m shares on the open market, the last ones were: June '21 (20m), May '24 (40m), June '24 (75m). Shares sold were roughly 10-13% of daily trading volume. The recent trading volume was not that high, so I expect the ATM offering to be complete ideally at Friday, realistically ~Tuesday next week. GME should bottom then.
Bullish on macro though.
$GME Macro POI: Scenario 1Displayed is the macro POI of NYSE:GME , in this basket of "meme" stocks it is clear that we are in late phase C of Wyckoff Accumulation. I believe we will see our first markup sometime by mid october.. This can be completely altered with CPI data being released..
GME LONGI do not have a "reason" for the move - quite simply this is a technical structure which has been showing price activity month over month for a while now and you can see this massive falling wedge structure on the weekly and monthly which just broke out recently and formed a new smaller pennant that it is currently in.
On this is quite simple - this is a stock that gains momentum easily and can do 100% moves very easily. I will watch for the breach of $35 which will lead to a move to 88-90.
Watching this pennant for a break for a test of 35 - followed by the decision of a breakout or a fail at that spot.
GME- Game On...Now What?We have been steadfastly saying that GMEs price structure is bullish
Even as price made its way back down to under 19 we were pounding the table on here saying that NOTHING HAS CHANGED with the price structure
The reason we can be so confident is because no matter what Reddit says- TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS WORKS ON GME
We use a simple system that combines Elliott Wave Theory with Volume analysis to determine probable turning points in the market
With that said GME has one of the most BULLISH price structures we have ever seen in a stock and is adhering to EVERY Elliott Wave Theory rule
NOW WHAT?
At an absolute minimum we should see price move over 100 and make new All Time Highs over the next 4-6 weeks (full disclosure- we are less confident about the timing than we are the price targets)
We think approx the 38 level is where MOASS gets triggered
That is the approx level where Hedgies entered into the 2022 SWAPS agreement that expired end of May
The 38 level also coincides with the approx volume weighted average price as measured on a weekly timeframe from the peak of the Jan 2021 squeeze to Fridays close...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COINCIDENCE
So from here we will let the chart lead the way
But as we have repeatedly said...EVERY FIB YOU SEE ON OUR CHARTS IS IMPORTANT..ESPECIALLY the 618s (0.618, 1.618, 2.618, etc)...watch those as they will help guide the way
G A M E O N
Gamestop (GME) local bottom?Look at this retest of this horizontal support at around $20.
GME has also retested and held the EMA50 on the weekly time frame, which looks quite promising, like a mean reversion and even more bullish because it is a higher time frame.
GameStop ($GME) Earnings PreviewGameStop ( NYSE:GME ) is set to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday, September 10th, after the market closes. Analysts are bracing for a challenging report, expecting lower revenue, a slightly larger net loss, and a significant decline in comparable store sales year-over-year. However, the stock's recent technical setup and less volatile trading pattern suggest potential opportunities for traders and investors alike. Here's an in-depth look at both the fundamental and technical aspects of GameStop as we approach the earnings release.
Key Financial Metrics and Projections
GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) has been grappling with declining sales, increased competition, and shifting consumer behavior in the video game retail space. Analysts project revenue of $900 million for Q2 2024, down from $1.16 billion in the same quarter last year, reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 22.4%. The company's net loss is expected to widen slightly to $5.3 million, up from a $2.8 million loss in Q2 2023.
Key Financial Estimates:
- Revenue: Expected to decline to $900 million from $1.16 billion YoY.
- Net Loss: Projected at $5.3 million, larger than last year's loss of $2.8 million but significantly improved from Q1 2024's $32.3 million loss.
- Comparable Store Sales: Expected to drop nearly 23% year-over-year, a key metric highlighting reduced consumer spending on discretionary items, including video games.
Factors Influencing Fundamentals:
- Lower Consumer Spending: Amid inflationary pressures, discretionary spending has taken a hit as consumers prioritize essentials. This shift has particularly impacted GameStop’s sales.
- Shift to Digital Sales: The ongoing transition from physical game sales to digital downloads continues to challenge GameStop’s traditional business model.
- New Strategic Moves: GameStop recently announced plans to convert some of its stores to "retro" locations, focusing on nostalgic gaming experiences. This could attract a niche audience but remains an unproven revenue driver.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Setup in the Making?
Despite the grim outlook on the fundamental side, GameStop’s technical setup tells a different story. As of the latest market session, NYSE:GME is up 3.17%, with the stock showing promising technical signals.
Key Technical Insights:
- RSI at 55: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55, indicating a balanced momentum that is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests that NYSE:GME is maintaining a healthy momentum without being at extreme levels, which could indicate further price movement.
- Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: The daily price chart depicts a symmetrical triangle pattern—a bullish continuation or reversal setup that often precedes a significant breakout. With converging trendlines, this pattern typically signals a buildup in buying pressure, leading to a potential upside move.
Trading Volume and Volatility:
- Volume Trends: Trading volume has been steady, reflecting less of the extreme volatility seen earlier in 2024. This calmer trading behavior may provide a more predictable environment for swing traders looking for a breakout opportunity.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Key support is around the $16 mark, while resistance sits near the $20 level. A breakout above this resistance could catalyze further gains, especially if positive earnings surprises or forward guidance are announced.
Market Sentiment and Influences:
- Meme Stock Legacy: While GameStop remains a heavily watched stock due to its meme status, recent activity has been relatively muted compared to past years. Influential trader Keith Gill, also known as “Roaring Kitty,” recently made a social media comeback, posting a cryptic message that could reignite interest among retail investors.
- Analyst Ratings and Revisions: Analysts have been cautious, with recent revisions reflecting skepticism about GameStop’s ability to return to profitability. However, any positive guidance or surprise in earnings could quickly alter this sentiment, given the stock’s history of sharp moves.
Outlook and Trading Strategy
Near-Term Outlook: GameStop’s upcoming earnings report will be crucial in setting the tone for its stock trajectory. While the fundamentals suggest ongoing challenges, the technical setup and market sentiment hint at the possibility of a bullish breakout, particularly if earnings beat expectations or management outlines a compelling strategic direction.
Potential Strategy: Traders may consider positioning for a potential breakout, closely watching key levels around the symmetrical triangle pattern. Caution is advised due to the inherent volatility around earnings announcements.
Conclusion: GameStop’s stock sits at a crossroads, with fundamental challenges being counterbalanced by a potentially bullish technical formation. Investors should keep an eye on Tuesday’s earnings release for critical insights into GameStop’s future direction.
As NYSE:GME continues to evolve from its meme stock origins, the upcoming financial results could provide pivotal data points for both short-term traders and long-term investors seeking to understand its market dynamics.
Could it be... GMEEarnings next week. Kitty head master tweeted.
Let's see what happens. Looks nice on the weekly but who knows if it has another move in it. Keeping an eye on volume.
If anything GME could see one last major move higher but that's based purely on gut feel and chart setup right now.
Could also dump, but $20 seems to be pretty sound support. The break of the major downtrend is pretty bullish after years of downwards chop.
GME/CHWY ratio. GME looks to be near the bottom of range could see another top towards high of range.
GME- Game OnWe will save the long diatribe and let the charts do the talking
Remember in Elliott Wave Theory all Fibs are significant but the 618s (0.618, 1.618, 2.618, etc) are particularly magnetic to price.
B U C K L E U P
The Epic GameStop Saga: Continuing to Define Retail TradingRemember the wild rollercoaster that was GameStop (GME) back in 2021? Well, buckle up because this epic saga is still unfolding, and the thrills aren't over yet! From meme stock mania to where we are today, GME continues to surprise and entertain. Here’s the latest on everyone’s favorite stock market drama.
🕹️ Key Levels and Where We Stand:
🏔️ Premium Zone (~$70-$90): The legendary resistance zone! This is where GME’s price tried to push higher but couldn’t quite make it to the moon. It’s like that final boss you just can’t beat. Any attempt to breach this zone is met with fierce resistance. If GME manages to break through someday, it could be game on again! 🎮
⚖️ Equilibrium Zone (~$40-$50): The balance point of the GME universe. This zone is where the stock has found its happy medium in the past, like the calm after the storm. Think of it as the stock’s “chill zone.” But don’t get too comfortable—this could change in a heartbeat if new developments hit the market.
🎯 Discount Zone (~$20-$25): This is where value hunters might start getting interested. GME is chilling in this zone right now, like a cool-down period after an epic battle. It’s a solid support area, but if the price dips below, things could get dicey. Keep an eye out—this might be where the next big play happens!
🏚️ Strong Low (~$10): The “panic button” level. If GME ever drops here, expect major action. For now, it’s a distant thought, but in the crazy world of GME, anything’s possible. Consider it the “last stand” for the stock, where brave investors might make their move.
🎯 Lower Targets ($13.34, $9.52): These are the lower levels to watch if things start heading south. Think of them as checkpoints in a high-stakes game—getting here might mean we’re in for some serious drama. But who knows? It could also be the perfect buying opportunity!
🎢 What’s Next in This Wild Ride?
GME is like that video game you can’t put down—it’s always got something new in store. Here’s what could influence the next chapter:
💥 Retail Trader Power: Never underestimate the power of the internet! A new wave of retail trader enthusiasm could send GME soaring again. Keep an eye on Reddit and Twitter because when the crowd gets behind this stock, things get wild!
📈 Corporate Moves: GameStop is more than just a meme—it’s also a company trying to reinvent itself. Digital transformation, NFTs, and more could be game-changers. Watch out for any big announcements that could flip the script.
🛡️ Market Rules: The regulators are always watching, and any new rules about short selling or retail trading could change the game. Stay tuned—this could have a big impact on how GME is played out in the market.
Final Thoughts:
GameStop isn’t just a stock; it’s a cultural phenomenon. Whether you’re here for the thrills, the memes, or the potential gains, one thing’s for sure: GME is always going to keep us on our toes. So grab your popcorn, stay sharp, and enjoy the ride!
$GME nearing support zone, loading for next pushGME continues to follow the well-known algorithm from recent years. The double top in May/June 2024 led to a significant drop in the stock, a phase of consolidation, and this rounding bottom typically concludes a cycle. This should be completed around the $18-20 range (also a previous resistance which has now transformed into a support zone).
Additionally, GME announced yesterday in an 8-K filing that they have canceled the possibility of a $250m loan arrangement with various banks, opting instead to rely on their own cash reserves and cash from operations. Earnings are due on September 10, 2024.
A breach of the $18 support zone could lead to further declines, with $10 as a potential final target. However, if the current algorithm model continues, the end of this cycle should be near, and a push in the stock price should follow soon. Key levels to watch initially are: $22.50, $30.
GME Short IdeaGME finally broke below critical support around 23.50 and has been consolidating since. It did have a downtrend breakout, but it didn't move up much, just kind of broke out sideways, which is a bearish sign IMO. I think shorts are good anywhere under 23.50, but it would be nice to get a retest of the 23.50 area for an entry. However, it has already retested once and just broke this ascending wedge to the downside, so this may be the best entry, somewhere in this area. Even if it did rally some if you bought time you could hold as long as it stays under 23.50.
GME Support TestGME finally broke to the downside after multiple bear flags in a row that resulted in sideways action last week. My final target is around 18, but we also have the $20 area. Along with 21.50, which is what it is currently sitting at now.
I think there's a decent chance it bounces here, but I'd expect it to be short lived and for it to eventually break 21.50 and head to 20.
Bull Flag On The DailyWell well well, this looks familiar. I wonder where I seen this before? Beautiful Bull Flag on GME daily. Once we fill the bottom of this wedge around the $20 mark, its go time back to $30. If we break $30, this could head straight back to $60... Once again, get your tickets, because this is a show you're not going to want to miss.
Something brewing for GameStop? (GME)Sometimes the trade is right in front of us. Earnings in 11 days. Would keep an eye on this one.
8/23/24 - $gme - the OG meme, game time?8/23/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GME
the OG meme, game time?
- first, i debated whether to write this. but anyway. this is an open blog to myself. if you guys want to interact with me or this content, great. but it's a weird trading log because i've always struggled to capture my ideas and reflect on them.
- with that out of the way. i just did a lil ape into some GME calls for next week. nothing major. but 20 bps. so not insignificant for some weeklies. IV sub 50% seems kinda cheap considering a few factors.
1) the stock has held up nicely since the recent move in early may. still hugging the .786 fib. TA matters more for this one, so no fundamental stuff here.
2) earnings is not next week, but the following. the apes usually show up before the event, but not this early. they're playing salad and space laser memes at the moment (i wish i was joking, but it's a good thing to have donks at the poker tables sometimes). what this means is that any bid to the stock might allow you to see IV inflate, stock does a lil gamma gamma move and you're sitting on a double and can remove half the size and ride free on the rest. that's my current plan.
3) NASDAQ:NVDA next week. ALL ELSE EQUAL the market is in risk on mode. y day a lil dippity doo dah was nothing to scare away ever increasing global M2 and powell is signaling similar. while i don't think this means we still don't have one more leg down (which is why my portfolio is pretty consolidated in 35% discount to NAV OTC:GDLC and some NASDAQ:NXT that is already in value zone... both of which i know well... while playing earnings like NASDAQ:PDD next week and other event driven stuff, i'm still pretty cash heavy with flexibility).
4) i am picking up increasing newsflow that the show here isn't over. i'll leave it at that. the stock px tells me there's a greater than 50% probability of this. institutions also have their hands around it at this pt and short interest remains high.
5) i think all else equal risk to the downside given how the stock has traded remains low for the upside potential. it's been some dead money in the last months which is why IV is so low and we are a week and a half away from EPS which is enough of a catalyst to start the gossip, tweet machine again. the OG meme has ample cash to not need a raise. not burning a ton. trends suck, yes. but that's all known knowns and so i'd argue "priced in".
...
so that's that. perhaps i should start a degen friday once a week post. i've had some weird rec's to this extent. but again, capturing my thoughts for myself. if you have something to add, i'd genuinely love to know it. it's more fun to do this in a group which is why i'm airing out my laundry and trades. still shooting well, and attempting to remain humble. but looking to have fun on this one. i take the shots on these where i think my odds are better than 50/50 and i keep the sizing reasonable.
memestonk <3
V
$GME - Small Update"PLEASE READ"
Seems that the last little indication of something happening didn't actually quite pan out according to my data. There's very little chance of something occuring this and next week although the possibility exists.
I see from a different dataset that i have that it's more likely that we may see something around the 5'th of August or 28'th. It's WAY too early to say anything for sure, these are just very very very early indications of something occuring. My data may flip negative way before we even reach these dates.
Obviously i will let you know before those dates wether my data still looks positive or if it's flipped negative. The above chart will be invalidated if it flips negative, so please keep an eye out on UPDATES to my post as these are more important than the graph i've drawn.
I have a lot of data but nothing publically digestible/understandable yet which is why i'm not sharing anything here today. It would take too long to explain the charts/data that i have and very few people would understand, instead i'm letting you know verbally what's happening so you don't have to worry about the analysis part.
$GME - Another updateMy calls are expiring this week, i went too hard on the risk unlike most of you.
I see that something either will happen this week or on the 10'th of Sept.
That's it for now.
I don't like moving goalposts, especially 3 times in a row, but yeah. It is what it is.
Another Bear Flag for GMEI shared a longer term bear flag on GME recently as reasoning for my short position. It's looking pretty good so far, another bear flag on the 15m. First target for me is the 21.50 area and eventually the lows from early August as a final target.
A further 1700% move to $600 for Gamestop in 2024?Bet that title got your attention.
Well it might not be as crazy as it seems. An exercise performed by yours truly is to scan through monthly charts on the beginning of each new month. Takes more time than you imagine. Gamestop is certainly worthy of attention on the monthly time frame.
On the above monthly chart:
1) It is without question, past resistance confirms support with the close of May on the horizontal support / resistance. Blue arrows.
2) The print for May is a bullish engulfing candle. A candle besting those that printed in May of 2020. 4 years later… Look left.
3) The “Breakout” in stochastic RSI is significant on this time frame. Momentum is surging.
4) The Bull flag pattern breakout is impressive but not yet confirmed. Ideally a backtest would print around the $15 dollar area.
5) Should a back test confirm support then price action is forecast to make a run to just over $600.
Is it possible price action delights short sellers with urgently needed corrections? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Don't be scaredThe price can go up and down in short timeframe but eventually it will go new ALL TIME HIGH, maybe even in 2024.
