HLI | A Low Key High Flyer | LONGHoulihan Lokey, Inc. engages in the provision of investment banking services. It operates through the following segments: Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory. The Corporate Finance segment provides general financial advisory services in addition to advice on mergers and acquisitions and capital markets offering. The Financial Restructuring segment provides advice to debtors, creditors, and parties-in-interest in connection with recapitalization or deleveraging transactions. The Financial Valuation and Advisory Services segment provides valuation of various assets including companies, illiquid debt and equity securities and intellectual property. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, CA.
HLI trade ideas
Houlihan Lockey purchase ahead of quarterly reportKey arguments supporting the idea
- Investment banking activity resurgence powers big banks.
- A wave of surprisingly good earnings reports may take the shareholders
on a ride.
- Technical support highlights positive risk balance.
Investment thesis
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (NYSE: HLI) is a global investment bank with expertise in
mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, financial restructuring, and financial and
valuation advisory. Houlihan Lokey was founded in 1972 in California and since
then gained the position of the No. 1 investment bank for all global M&A
transactions.
The stock's correction amid the general market drawdown could mean a
favorable entry point. The stock is trading 7% below the local high, with a
moderate pullback ahead of the quarterly report seeming reasonable given that
consensus suggests strong net income growth. The company will report results on
Wednesday, May 8. The RSI is showing signs of the stock being overbought as it
moves out of the zone below 40 points.
The results of all major banks were generally positive. Goldman Sachs (GS) EPS
rose 31.7% YoY, better than expected, and Morgan Stanley's earnings rose 18% YoY,
also better than expected. Although Bank of America (BAC) earnings fell 18%, the
bank's CEO Brian Moynihan accompanied the report with positive commentary
and an optimistic outlook. Citibank reported 35% increase in revenue from the
banking segment (corporate and investment banking). JP Morgan reported a 21%
growth in YoY fees from IB, and Wells Fargo increased IB revenues two-fold. These
peer group dynamics could mean that Hoolihan Lockey could post similar (or
better) results.
EY confirms growing issuer activity. There is momentum for private equity (PE)
IPOs in 2024, with average deal size in the first quarter of 2024 up 26% from 2023.
CEOs of major banks in the US reported strong inflows from investment banking
activity. Financials Sector (XLF) consolidated NTM EPS has been constantly revised
throughout 2023 and 2024, reaching $2.7 per share (+7% YoY). The consensus
forecast also indicates expectations of 20% EPS growth for the company, strongly
above comparable peers. The high growth rate fully explains the company's high
comparable valuations.
A higher appeal for capital market in 2024 may drive up the revenues of
investment banks. Morgan Stanley CEO said 'existential' need for M&A will revive
IB. As the year progresses rising oil prices are supposed to bring the attention of
the O&G players to new equity raising. Moreover, after two years of heightened
interest rates, the companies should revive their strategies, which opens the door
for a new wave of M&A and IPO activity. M&A fees could rebound in 2024, with
fundamental support in corporate cash and private equity dry powder giving us
confidence in the growth potential, which will likely help adjacent financing fees
HLI to take a breather?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
HLI to continue higher?* Exceptional earnings year over year
* Very strong up trend since inception
* Broke out of a month long consolidation with 72.99% more volume than average
* Under very tight accumulation for the past 5 weeks
* Pays out dividends with a Payout ratio of 26.70%. This means the company has a lot more room to grow and possibly increase dividends as well.
Trade Idea:
* Now is the perfect time to enter as it's still close to the broken level and is picking up momentum with volume.
* If you are looking for a small discount, this may come down to retest the $88.90 area before heading higher.
Summarised Heiken Ashi (HA) TutorialInvestopedia defines the Heiken Ashi (HA) as:
Heikin-Ashi, also sometimes spelled Heiken-Ashi, means "average bar" in Japanese. The Heikin-Ashi technique can be used in conjunction with candlestick charts when trading securities to spot market trends and predict future prices. It's useful for making candlestick charts more readable and trends easier to analyze. For example, traders can use Heikin-Ashi charts to know when to stay in trades while a trend persists but get out when the trend pauses or reverses. Most profits are generated when markets are trending, so predicting trends correctly is necessary.
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Combinations of other technical indicators in conjunction with the HA can provide accurate entry and exit points for traders.
The HA is not a replacement to the standard candlestick chart, but is a useful indicator to consult alongside your standard candlestick as it filters much of the 'noise' away from the price action.
Apply a FAST (5,8,5) and slower (default settings) MACD further helps to give precise indication of entry/exit points, looking for crossovers and divergence within the two MACD's.
Look for larger body candles within the HA which suggest a strong trend in the applicable direction.
Minimal wicks on the lower, predominantly or all on the top alongside larger body candles indicates a bullish trend, the opposite for bearish.
The educational chart above shows worked examples of the effectiveness of this indicator.
Use higher timeframes first in your analysis to check overall trend of the stock (daily/weekly) and confirm entries using the 4hr timeframe.
Optional indicators that also work well with the HA include Ichimoku (entering trades on crossover of the cloud) and RSI indicators where price crosses the 50 mark.
We hope you enjoy this short tutorial, and are happy to answer further questions in the comments below.
Please remember to like, and good luck!
HLI ( Houlihan Lokey) - Bullish end to the quarterHoulihan Lokey
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. is an investment bank that focuses on mergers and acquisitions, financings, financial restructurings and financial advisory services. It operates primarily in the United States, Europe, Asia and Australia. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. is headquartered in LOS ANGELES, United States.
Analysis/Commentary
Really strong EPS and Sales Growth Y-on-Y
Based on the study of the previous quarterly earnings reports and subsequent price moves:
- Current quarter has given price move to the LOW point
- Turn in Slo Stochastic will initiate BUY
- Expectation for the price to move to MID or higher
- Trailing stop-loss on price above MID point
GOOD LUCK.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
Is HLI next to find one of these price targets?Here is another interesting pick. In the case of HLI, 4 of my algorithms signaled a BUY on April 16, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move up, but sometimes it may continue to move down first. We are not quite past the point of the stock charting a permanent course higher as I have laid out, but it is off to a good start.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Daily chart after a BUY signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement downward before the stock finally moved upward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement downward, before the stock moved upward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential bottom in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final top. I would consider the movement a success once it reaches a level equivalent with the bottom of the smaller green box. This may happen earlier or later the box that is outlined, but the most like location is in this box.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could rise the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never rise (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
HLI LongAfter a couple of false starts, HLI finally broke out from it's consolidation pattern (Inverse H&S Continuation) and has come back to the scene of the crime. It is also getting support from the 20-day EMA and printed a really nice reversal candle on heavy volume. I took this trade and placed my stop below the low of the day.