HUI trade ideas
Relationship Between Gold, Stocks and CurrencyGold and currency goes the different way in the same entity. But in different economical entity, it will depend in how close the economy of the area or country relies on the US dollar.
One place to hideMaybe the HUI is not for you, but find a way to own gold or those who dig it out of the ground. Get long and be patient while the the Big Bear runs its course....
Golden spiral in trading Arca Gold Bugs (HUI)We all know why gold stocks should go higher. It looks like (HUI) found a bottom and started to trade higher. I use my unique trading strategy based on Fibonacci numbers and Golden spiral.
HUI in reversal patternFollowing the negative trend in Gold the HUI index has lost 27% within 2 months approx.
It has left the negative trend channel to the bottom, forming a new and tighter trend channel (red). But also this pattern has been broken.
And now the index has entered a diamond pattern, which is a reversal pattern.
As Gold and Silver also are signalling more strengt, it is possible that the HUI will have seen its low and we´re in front of a new rally.
The indicators RSI and MACD are also turning, confirming the possibility of a new and positive trend.
If the index breaks out the diamond pattern to the top the next aim should be the swing trend line at ~ 160$, which is also the lower limit of the longer negative trend channel. This will be a stronger resistance and it has to be broken if Silver shall continue to rise.
EW: If this has been the low of the last move, it would be the turning point C of an ABC-correction wave.
This is no trading advice!
HUI -- staying awayI'm on watch to short any and all rips on this chart. I don't want to chase this decline though but I'm sure we'll get some nice spike ups thanks to the huge short interest
HUI desasterThis chart looks horrible for the goldbugs. The long fight about the EMA 20 is lost and therefore a rapid decline is probable, which may accelerate with the bearish crossing of the important horizontal support (yellow). Target is the lower leg of the bullish wedge. Afterwards there may be a big move to the upside as a wave 3.
HUI modest move upThe Index swings within a negative trend channel. It rebounded on the lower limit of the channel, also the fib retracement 38.2% (170). Since march 18 it climbed with little steps to the next resistance - a falling trend line, that is coming from june 2011. This had to be broken - what happened - to confirm the positive move.
The trend line is now support and has been tested several times.
In the last days the index has moved sideways, veering away from the support-line.
While the index stayed on the same level, RSI has rosen - so there is a positive divergence between the index and the indicator with some probality that hte index will close it. Possibly RSI will fall or go sideways - both would not destruct the positive movement; unless the support doesn´t hold!
HUI has much pace to the upper limit of the trend channel which is at around 200. That would be a gain of 11% from today.
Once reached the limit we have to analyse if the momentum is strong enough to break through the resistance. Shortly behind there is a swing trend line and a double fib retracement! - I think at least at these levels we have to think about taking profit.
No trade advice!
Trading possibility within trend channelHUI has fallen from the upper limit of the descending trend channel to its lower limit.
It rebounced on the lower level and now has rosen above the long descending trend channel - this is a good sign.
If gold and silver don´t get weaker than they are actaully then we´ve got good chances that the HUI - Index will test the upper limit of the trend channel.
Dollar is getting stronger; normally that is a good support for precious metals and the mines.
Take profit-zone in the red circle.
Stop when breaking the falling trend line.
HUI has left the roomHUI has just broken the lower limit of the trend channel, but also the support at 170 pt (fib retracement 38.2%).
This is a very bearish sign, if it doesn´t turn immediately to re-enter the comfort zone.
If not there is the risk that HUI would fall on 143 pt (fib retracement 23.6%) - with only one support line in between (160$).
What is estonishing as well is the big gap between the HUI index course and the course of Gold. This "cries" for a correction and I wonder which it´ll be? Gold down or HUI up?
Indicators are signalling more weakness so I do not expect that HUI goes up with the consquence that Gold will also have some losses.
HUI buy opportunityHUI has fallen from the top of the trend channel to its bottom. On this support level it has rebounded and could now be on the way to the opposite side of the trend channel.
For short term investors this offers good buy opportunities.
From bottom to top: + 21%
Have in mind that there is the long term trend line (descending) and the index has to break through the resistance.
Stop: when the index is leaving the trend channel to the bottom!
HUI in dangerThe index has crossed from the upper limit of the trend channel to its lower limit and is now very near to it.
On this level we also find the fib retracement 38.2% .
If it´s broken and the trend channel is left behind then HUI could continue to fall until the fib retracement at 23.6% (143 pt).
On the other hand, if the price rebounds from the lower limit then short term gains can be made.
Not to forget, there is a long trend line crossing the channel. Once above this trend line the index should gain strength.
Watching the indicators RSI and MACD I see little chances for the better scenario, because the long trends aren´t broken yet.
buy: only after the rebound with aim fib retracement 61.8% (214 pt)
stop / short: when leaving the trend channel to the bottom
HUI still in good positionbuy: above the dotted line (green arrow)
the line connects three peaks of the past week
stop: below the dotted line (red arrow)
the line connects four valleys of the past week
The index is above the long descending trend line (dashed line)
RSI and MACD without strong signals = neutral
With stocks and cryptos going down a switch of investments in metals and mines is possible (not yet).
Interest rates are announced to rise (FED) but only in little steps. This shouldn´t stress the prices.
HUI buy opportunityHUI has touched the support line and has tested it twice.
We can expect now rising courses to the fib retracement at 190 points.
MACD: signal line triggered but weak
RSI: turned to positive direction - 43 is not strong
