HUI GDX GDXJ Gold : staying realisticUpon completion of the inner Head and Shoulders Formation by retesting the NeckLine, an outer Head and Shoulders Formation is created ! Inner Formation has 150 Region as a Target, the outer 110. Bulls have to hold 200 line. With COT positioning of Gold this is quite unlikely.
HUI trade ideas
HUI - Daily (GDX, GDXJ)Miners have been a tough trade lately, especially for bulls like me that had become accustomed to shallow retraces. I'm treating this bounce as a corrective rally unless an impulsive move takes out HUI 286.05 strongly. Targets for yellow waves (3) through (5) will have to wait for confirmed completion of wave (2). White wave 3 of (3) could be expected to reach 463, hold 332 in wave 4 of (3), then stretch to at least 645.75.
Remember, the placement of labels are meant to suggest price targets, not timing.
Similar patterns are possible on the GDX and GDXJ ETFs as well as a large number of individual mining stocks.
Bulls Bugs Beware | $HUI $Gold $XAU $AUD $CAD #forexFriends,
While bulls are attempting to gore through a significant bearish entrenchment at 201.65, the possibility of a pullback to the predictive model's worst-case scenario level remains a fair plausibility - This level is defined as:
- TG-x = 134.86 - 13 JAN 2015
Combined against an expected advance is an overhead resistance projecting from the most recent high-point of the current swing (blue dashed line).
Surmounting this 201.65 level, however, is only half the battle, as the real bearish reinforcement is expected to occur at the 251.82 level.
The long-term outlook remains bullish, with a mitigated directional bias for the most immediate term, based on the structural concerns mentioned above - For this reason, the directional bias indicator is left at "Neutral" until the price untangles from the current time-consumptive background geometry.
If and once released from the 251.82 cap, a set of prop-based bullish target lurk far overhead, defined as:
1 - TG-Hi = 489.50 - 13 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-Hix = 572.69 - 13 JAN 2015
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Gold bug channelThis gold bug index really has a silver mirror attached to it at 146.8
The 311.74% increase from 2001 to July 2002 can be projected almost identically by using reflection which resulted in same % of price target hitting around 600 before it collapsed. If the current narrow downtrend channel is valid and price broke below 146.8, the next cluster of support would most probably be around 125-130.
Using HUI/VIX on weekly chart to anticipate major HUI movesHUI (Gold Bugs Index) throws signals relative to the VIX that are pretty obvious and allow plenty of time for entries and exits. I'll describe how in a minute - before that think about the aspect of Gold trading that is a "worry trade" and think about what the VIX is. As that sinks in, you realize that gold buyers are often playing a much longer time frame than the options traders who drive the VIX. So the signal mix here shouldn't surprise anyone with trading experience.
The Chart - I've taken the Heiken Ashi of the ratio of HUI/VIX. The rationale for HUI/VIX? "Worry traders" - those who buy gold and those that track the VIX - aren't always the same people, but both are often hedging (or betting on) a market crash - or worse. This chart shows the ratio in the red/green candles and in the background the gray is HUI itself.
The Sell Signal - I drew three horizontal lines where HUI/VIX pivots are common and pulled up the RSI (important - the Heiken Ashi is important here - it makes the RSI divergences easier to read). The signal pattern for a SELL of HUI is a bearish divergence on the HUI/VIX followed by a simultaneous spike in HUI to the top zone while the HUI/VIX moves down to the middle zone. In those cases HUI plunges shortly after. Why? I think of it as "hang time" - the gold believers are the last to give up - the VIX has moved lower and the S&P isn't showing worry anymore. Gold as a worry asset then follows suit because fewer new buyers are converted to owning Gold.
The Buy Signal - Worry assets bottom when no one is worried. Yet worry is cyclical. We are very close (maybe 3 to 6 months out, IMO) from a worry low, and the chart shows it - we are sitting above the "no one is worried" pivot line, but we aren't there yet, at least according to past patterns on this weekly chart. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HUI HASN'T BOTTOMED. Sorry for the caps, but ratio charts are tricky - we can move firmly down into that bottom zone with HUI trading sideways (consolidation) and VIX dropping. I am actually expecting that very thing to happen and have linked a chart showing why I see VIX lower for 3 more months.
HUI Beautiful Completion Of Domed House And Three Peaks PatternFriends,
-Perfect completion of dome and 3 peaks pattern in terms of price action and timings.
-Sitting on a critical historical support line at the moment, this could be a good opportunity to get into this for the long haul.
This pattern did complete a while ago, but it's important to use this pattern now as a tool in the future indicative trend.
I will publish a trading plan for this separately in the near future.
For observation purposes only.
All the best,
Tom