HUI trade ideas
HUI - WeeklyI realize this doesn't match the counts shown on my Daily idea, but if I'm off by a wave degree on the Daily then we'd be looking for something like this in the big picture. Confirmed primary wave 1-2 will refine the target for wave III.
HUI - Daily (GDX, GDXJ)Miners have been a tough trade lately, especially for bulls like me that had become accustomed to shallow retraces. I'm treating this bounce as a corrective rally unless an impulsive move takes out HUI 286.05 strongly. Targets for yellow waves (3) through (5) will have to wait for confirmed completion of wave (2). White wave 3 of (3) could be expected to reach 463, hold 332 in wave 4 of (3), then stretch to at least 645.75.
Remember, the placement of labels are meant to suggest price targets, not timing.
Similar patterns are possible on the GDX and GDXJ ETFs as well as a large number of individual mining stocks.
HUI (GOLD BUGD INDEX) - HEAD AND SHOULDERSTrendlines are not made of stone. I still see perfect symmetry here.
Buy where risk is clearly defined (green zone).
HUI weekly - expect some (healthy) pullback - 7/12/2016RSI overbought and diverged, expect this index to pullback a bit (20 ~ 30%) and there may be another leg up.
Gold bugs have more room to runthinking of taking profit after 100% move? think again there is more to run before we get any form of technical resist.
HUI Bottomed ?Time between previous major bottom (october 2008) and last week was done in 377 weeks (Fibo Number).
A 3 drive bullish pattern was completed on july 2015. Level always saved in weekly closing.
Psychological level at 100.
Yellow trendline as target.
Bulls Bugs Beware | $HUI $Gold $XAU $AUD $CAD #forexFriends,
While bulls are attempting to gore through a significant bearish entrenchment at 201.65, the possibility of a pullback to the predictive model's worst-case scenario level remains a fair plausibility - This level is defined as:
- TG-x = 134.86 - 13 JAN 2015
Combined against an expected advance is an overhead resistance projecting from the most recent high-point of the current swing (blue dashed line).
Surmounting this 201.65 level, however, is only half the battle, as the real bearish reinforcement is expected to occur at the 251.82 level.
The long-term outlook remains bullish, with a mitigated directional bias for the most immediate term, based on the structural concerns mentioned above - For this reason, the directional bias indicator is left at "Neutral" until the price untangles from the current time-consumptive background geometry.
If and once released from the 251.82 cap, a set of prop-based bullish target lurk far overhead, defined as:
1 - TG-Hi = 489.50 - 13 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-Hix = 572.69 - 13 JAN 2015
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Gold bug channelThis gold bug index really has a silver mirror attached to it at 146.8
The 311.74% increase from 2001 to July 2002 can be projected almost identically by using reflection which resulted in same % of price target hitting around 600 before it collapsed. If the current narrow downtrend channel is valid and price broke below 146.8, the next cluster of support would most probably be around 125-130.
Using HUI/VIX on weekly chart to anticipate major HUI movesHUI (Gold Bugs Index) throws signals relative to the VIX that are pretty obvious and allow plenty of time for entries and exits. I'll describe how in a minute - before that think about the aspect of Gold trading that is a "worry trade" and think about what the VIX is. As that sinks in, you realize that gold buyers are often playing a much longer time frame than the options traders who drive the VIX. So the signal mix here shouldn't surprise anyone with trading experience.
The Chart - I've taken the Heiken Ashi of the ratio of HUI/VIX. The rationale for HUI/VIX? "Worry traders" - those who buy gold and those that track the VIX - aren't always the same people, but both are often hedging (or betting on) a market crash - or worse. This chart shows the ratio in the red/green candles and in the background the gray is HUI itself.
The Sell Signal - I drew three horizontal lines where HUI/VIX pivots are common and pulled up the RSI (important - the Heiken Ashi is important here - it makes the RSI divergences easier to read). The signal pattern for a SELL of HUI is a bearish divergence on the HUI/VIX followed by a simultaneous spike in HUI to the top zone while the HUI/VIX moves down to the middle zone. In those cases HUI plunges shortly after. Why? I think of it as "hang time" - the gold believers are the last to give up - the VIX has moved lower and the S&P isn't showing worry anymore. Gold as a worry asset then follows suit because fewer new buyers are converted to owning Gold.
The Buy Signal - Worry assets bottom when no one is worried. Yet worry is cyclical. We are very close (maybe 3 to 6 months out, IMO) from a worry low, and the chart shows it - we are sitting above the "no one is worried" pivot line, but we aren't there yet, at least according to past patterns on this weekly chart. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HUI HASN'T BOTTOMED. Sorry for the caps, but ratio charts are tricky - we can move firmly down into that bottom zone with HUI trading sideways (consolidation) and VIX dropping. I am actually expecting that very thing to happen and have linked a chart showing why I see VIX lower for 3 more months.
HUI (Weekly)
Large Head and Shoulders formation, targeted
at potential 6 year double bottom.
3 months double bottom, initial target 210(50 daily and 200 weekly sma) and 235 level measured, fib confluence.
Short term retracement possible.
HUI Beautiful Completion Of Domed House And Three Peaks PatternFriends,
-Perfect completion of dome and 3 peaks pattern in terms of price action and timings.
-Sitting on a critical historical support line at the moment, this could be a good opportunity to get into this for the long haul.
This pattern did complete a while ago, but it's important to use this pattern now as a tool in the future indicative trend.
I will publish a trading plan for this separately in the near future.
For observation purposes only.
All the best,
Tom
HUI Index. Daily. ScenariosHUI Index Daily.
Filled the 18/6 Gap.
Tagged Support 200 sma.
BB Percent Bandwidth at reversal levels.(negative)
50 retracement reached.
26.18 setup retracement at 241.31.
Double Top pattern at 211.74.
Ratio:Miners index, priced in small capsNotice how Gold is moving inversely from HUI
-priced in small cap miners ETF- since Jan 2013.
My view is it pays at the time being to be in
well financed, little debt small company stocks.
Ratio currently at the lower boundary of possible
megaphone pattern, right below of the non confirmed
yet H&S's neckline. All eyes in yellow box, wick tail of
June 16th area, for a possible break, or failed break.
Big money are being made on big failed patterns.
So far, ratio follows the path of a possible bullish Butterfly.
Kumo (not shown) just turn red for the first time since
Dec 2010
All the best
P
