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IBM trade ideas

THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SLB, KMI EARNINGS; XLU, SMH, IYR, EWW, VXXEARNINGS The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up. KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on the 17th after market close. The January 19th expiry's implied volatility is at 40%, with the 26th's at 31.4% (a 27.5% potential contraction). Given the underlying's price, it's probably best to go short straddle. Unfortunately, the Jan 19th's 19.5 short straddle isn't paying much -- .70 at the mid, with break evens clear of the expected move. Given what that's paying, a defined risk play won't pay. IBM (implied volatility rank 93/implied volatility 26) announces on the 18th after market close. January 19th's implied's at 43.2; the 26th's at 31.3 (38.0% potential contraction). The January 19th 157.5/170 short strangle (23 delta) is paying 2.30 at the mid; the 152.5/157.5/170/175 iron condor's only paying 1.49 (<1/3rd wing width), so would probably pass on a defined unless implied volatility frisks up running into earnings. SLB (rank 100/implied 27) announces on the 19th before market open. January 19th's implied is 35.4 vs. Jan 26th's of 27.9 (26.9% potential contraction). The 19th's 76/80 short strangle's paying 1.07 at the mid. Defined -- not worth it. NON-EARNINGS Another area in which implied volatility rank makes potential plays look promising, but where background implied volatility isn't up to stuff. Currently, there are no exchange-traded funds whose implied volatility rank is in the upper one-quarter of so of where it's been over the past year and where background implied is greater than 35%. For what it's worth, though, here are the top ones: XLU (73/15), SMH (59/23), IYR (57/14), and EWW (51/24). VOLATILITY PRODUCTS Recently I've been working VXX* in two ways: (1) "price agnostic," where I enter either a long put vertical or short call vertical when the next weekly expiry open on Thursday or Friday; and (2) on pops where the VXST/VIX ratio is >1.0 (the higher the better). Unfortunately, it's tough to forecast a pop (although I've seen people repeatedly make the attempt), so you just have to set up an alert to trigger on a VXST/VIX ratio print of >1.00 or a VVIX print of >110 and keep powder dry for when it happens. * -- I've been waiting for UVXY to reverse split on the notion that a 1/2 strike of movement in an 8.67 (UVXY Friday close price) underlying is somewhat more of a heavy lift than a 1/2 strike of movement in a 25.85 one, even though UVXY is leveraged.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
1
Good pattern on IBM before the announcement of resultsIBM will announce its Q4 results this 18-jan. What is interesting is the current "cup and handle" pattern on the stock. The figure is 260 days length and 16% height. In addition, there is still a GAP of march 2017 that haven't been fulfilled. From there 2 scenarios are possible: 1) The results are not exceptional and IBM pullback on the green support of the figure and the bullish trend take longer to start (blue scenario) 2) The results are excellent, there is no pullback, the Gap is filled and then the stock jump to the resistance of 180$ (red scenario) The good news is that both scenarios are bullish and algorithms confirms these predictions at 91%.
NYSE:IBMLong
by fdeltenr
IBM Meeting Heavy ResistanceIBM has been one of the worst DOW stocks of 2017, but things might change going ahead. IBM which should be seeing a bottoming in revenues as they return to growth from data analytic initiatives and a upgrade cycle in mainframes is on the verge of breaking out. Currently, IBM sits at a major resistance line. Watch for a breakout which could see the stock retest all time highs around $181.00, but a failed breakout may retest rising support around $155.00.
NYSE:IBM
by gthom9
Warren Buffett is out - IBM is an idea for me!IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) is an American multinational technology company headquartered in New York, United States. The company manufactures and markets computer hardware, middleware and software, and offers hosting and consulting services in areas ranging from mainframe computers to nanotechnology. Newsflow: In October, IBM ended its third quarter of 2017 with $11.5 billion of cash on hand. The company was able to surprise investors by publishing a positive quarterly earnings report. After IBM announcement of its third-quarter earnings report, the stock jumped about 8%. The reporting period brought IBM revenue of 19.2 billion US-Dollar and diluted EPS (GAAP) were $ 2.92. According to the full-year expectation for the fiscal year 2017, the company is expecting operating (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share of at least 13.80 US-Dollar. Based on 14 analysts offering 12 month price targets for IBM in the last 3 months: The average price target of 164.08 US-Dollar The maximum price target of 200 US-Dollar The lowest price target of 125 US-Dollar Today IBM’s stock price is about 151.77 US-Dollar a share. Fundamental Data: P/E ratio: 12.21 / Sales growth: -2.23% / Profit growth: -9.99% / Dividend: $5.50/3.62% (Source: teletrader). Chart Tools: What say the technical analysis methods I use? Oscillator: RSI of IBM is around 50, moving upwards and the situation could be considered as an opportunity to buy the stock. Trend indicator: In the mid-November the MACD found its bottom and since then it is moving upwards. From the chart it’s seen that MACD could move into positive zone. The risk management tool used here is the own-developed “Traffic Signals System” (TSS) and it will be implemented in my future analyses. The black line in the chart: the starting price of the idea is 151.82 US-Dollar. The red line in the chart: the stop loss is lying at 145 US-Dollar. Here could be a support. This represents a risk of around -4.49 percent. The green line in the chart: here for me the first further turning point in the idea = first goal at about 162 US-Dollar. CONCLUSION: From the fundamental- and news-based point of view, I consider the idea very interesting. Even though the financial legend Warren Buffett is currently repatriates his IBM investment. Chart-technically this happened after the GAP in October, as the consequence to profit taking. These seem to be completed now and support could be developed. In any case, IBM is worth an idea for me. Main parameters of the idea: Start of the idea: $151.82 Recent stock price: $151.82 (+ 0.00% from the starting price) Stop-Loss of the idea: $145 (-4.49% from the starting price) Take Profit of the idea: $200 (new highest price target) This idea has been running since November 22, 2017. Disclosure: "The trading ideas published here are neither to be understood as a recommendation nor as an offer or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments and should not be understood as such. You must also assume that the author holds the recommended position in his portfolio and benefits from the implementation of his trading ideas.”
NYSE:IBMLong
by Ritschy
1