Invitation Homes - The Strangest Stock I Know OfInvitation Homes NYSE:INVH presents a fascinating and somewhat enigmatic story within financial markets - especially as a stock that can be traded. I personally, am quite bearish and think its crash would benefit countless home buyers across the country. Let me explain...
Founded by Blackstone, this company has evolved into the largest single-owner entity of homes in the United States. Today, they own over 80,000 single-family and multi-family homes. How did they do this? Invitation Homes took advantage of low-interest rates to amass its portfolio, buying home after home, and using the cash flows from renting those homes, to secure loans to buy even more homes.
As far as I can tell, they own 80,000+ homes that are all dependent on the cash flow from renting those homes out being greater than the costs to service them whether it's repairs, taxes or something else.
In a way, this kind of card game, cards stacking on top of cards, reminds me of the financial crisis. Remove one card and...
For a little more historical context: Invitation Homes has managed to become the fastest-growing entity of single family home purchases that has ever existed. Even more interesting, one can't help but wonder if their acquisitions have, in some way, artificially inflated housing prices in certain areas. Did home prices really rise as much as they did an organic fashion? Or did one single buyer prop up entire markets? And now, their purchases have nearly halted, meaning the buying power in those regions is shrinking dramatically. It's possible that they were cornering the market on themselves!
In essence, Invitation Homes serves as a captivating case study in the intricate dance between the real estate market, financial markets, and now trading/investing. I wonder what kind of implications a home purchaser like this could face if the market were to realize some cracks in its model. What if it was forced write down its book as home prices correct? What if rents drop? What if counties raise their taxes? What if the wear and tear of certain homes exceed their monthly rental costs?
It's on my watchlist as a SHORT, because the company that could be worth $0.00 if the market turns on them faster than is being realized.
No position right now, but watching.
INVH trade ideas
Invitation Homes Inc. DCA - Rectangle PatternCompany: Invitation Homes Inc.
Ticker: INVH
Exchange: NYSE
Sector: Real Estate
Introduction:
Today's technical analysis focuses on Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH), a key player in the Real Estate sector, listed on the NYSE. The daily chart presents an unfolding Rectangle pattern, indicating a potential breakout scenario for bullish investors.
Rectangle Pattern:
The Rectangle pattern is typically observed during periods of market consolidation and can signify either a bullish or bearish reversal or trend continuation, depending on the direction and place of the breakout. It's characterized by a trading range where the price oscillates between a defined support and resistance level.
Analysis:
Earlier, Invitation Homes was experiencing a distinct downward trend, as represented by the blue diagonal resistance line. However, the trend appears to be shifting, with the price now consolidating within a Rectangle pattern that has been forming for the past 238 days. It acts as a reversal pattern.
Recently, the price closed not only above the 200 EMA but also above the rectangle's upper boundary at 34.15, so we could enter this trade directly. We would ideally like to see the price break above the diagonal resistance line.
Assuming the breakout is valid, the price target is projected at 39.73, indicating a potential upside of approximately 16.34%.
Conclusion:
Invitation Homes' daily chart suggests a promising setup in the form of a Rectangle breakout, implying a potential bullish reversal. This configuration could provide a favorable long trading opportunity.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions..
INVH consolidating again before the next move higher?Recently INVH had an explosive break out from the $38 resistance. With tonnes of volume following even after the break.
Now that volume is slowing down, it seems like INVH is in consolidation mode again.
Will it give another leg higher? No one can be sure; but judging from the technical performance $39.50 seems to be support.
Thoughts:
* Volume is relatively calming down
* Seems to be consolidating before the next move higher
Trade idea:
* Look for buying opportunities around the $39.40 to $39.50 area
OR
* Wait for a break and close above $40.20
Cup and HandlePossible stop under 27
Large player interest with effective volume noted. No rrising wedges
Invitation Homes is the nation's premier single-family home leasing company, meeting changing lifestyle demands by providing access to high-quality, updated homes with valued features such as close proximity to jobs and access to good schools. The company's mission, "Together with you, we make a house a home," reflects its commitment to providing homes where individuals and families can thrive and high-touch service that continuously enhances residents' living experiences.
INVH long term short is looking even betterMy last graph described a short term catalyst (Earnings didn't work out) but the long term short catalyst is as strong as ever. With the market downturn incoming this will get hit hard and it doesn't matter what management wants to say, a lot of people will be unable to pay rent or buy homes.
longterm great shortShort term- Any honest answers to rent payments during the conference call will make this an easy short. Broke below current support trendline
Long term- The unfortunate events of coronavirus is hard working people can't afford rent without a job. It's going to be hard over the long term to find renters during a depression as well.
My advice, draw your own conclusions and trades. Good luck!
IPO - Invitation Homes $INVH - CEO John Bartling95% occupancy
$1600 avg rent
62% margins
13 markets
3700 homes in each market
97% of markets has over 2000 homes
All rehab teams are in the market.
Buy, renovate, rent.
COMPETITION:
American Homes for Rent
Colony
Starwood
INVH is Part of the American Rental Housing Council
Provide a consistent experience for renters
Create best practices
John Bartling, CEO
Saw him on Bloomberg on IPO day Feb 1, 2017