11/4/24 - $kvyo - ~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:KVYO
~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps
- new one on my radar and reports this wk so using as an opportunity to augment/ refresh my thinking on ad-tech related names
- first there's no denying quality here, in a sense reminds me of NYSE:S in the cyber security space. expensive, but marginal winner. so i'm not going to fade this, nothing seems broken
- but valuation of 70x next year ('25) and 50x ('26) seems too much for low 20's top line growth. in earnest, i think you'd sleep better at night buying NASDAQ:META if you want to play ads + ai + other, add some calls to it for lighter fluid.
- but looking across the other comps, NASDAQ:TTD continues to look like a "stay away" valuation implosion eventually... but again perhaps not imminent. just v little upside for the R/R here.
- NASDAQ:SPT looks too expensive for a dead stock paying too much out in stock comp growing MSD+ and with mediocre margins. highly shorted...
- but $cxm... also shorted like NASDAQ:SPT with better balance sheet, less SBC issue and similar margins. I'm waiting to get another risk off pullback on mkt before i'd complicate my pretty streamlined PnL and esp this week election is going to be whackydoodleland... so names like this probably not worth adding just yet. if they run, they run. whatever.
- investigating $dsp. looks like the best growth and pretty good valuation (despite coming from behind). good opex flex. perhaps that's the smaller one that's the immediate buy for me. chart still in upward trend. thoughts on this??
- TBD for NASDAQ:MGNI , $pubm... need to look further.
- any insights welcome. i'd love to buy NYSE:SHOP , but just need a valuation that's not going to make me cringe. i get it, i get it, it's going higher over time, but i like valuations AND stories that both work *today*.
any and ALL comments helpful. lmk what you think of the bunch. i bet i left a few out too.. help me add those to my list!
V
