Cloudflare (NET): In low risk / high reward territory (buy) Cloudflare has strong fundamentals and was recently oversold to nearly the lower 200 day 2nd standard deviation.
A reversion to the 200 day mean yields 30% (my estimate: over the next 1-2 months).
A visit to the all-time-high would be 420% (my estimate: over the next 2 years).
A recession may force it lower, however.
NET trade ideas
NET: My Last Trade & the Next One: Patience & RenkoI just posted a note on the power of using Renko charts in preparing for a position - linked to this one.
NET (Cloudflare) is on my watchlist for new positions. Had a quick trade on NET around the earnings earlier this month - and i'm now watching the chart for the next trade. would like to share some details showing another example of the power of Renko charts
- entry @ $59 on the 8th - as marked on the chart
- exited @ $69.45 -- triggered by a 3% trailing stop on the gap down on 16th .. P&L% was 17.7% -- not bad for a 1 week position (my P&L% was a bit higher as i also sold a weekly covered call as an earnings play)
(Note: yellow vertical line shows where my entry would have been if I entered based on the chart signals - but i entered ahead of the earnings on strong fundamentals and expecting strong earnings.. the earning day's action confirmed the position was at little risk)
so now, i'm looking for my next entry to ride the next leg up - believing that NET is starting what might be a strong trend as the market recovers - and the most important tools to help me pinpoint my next entry are: patience and Renko. here's how:
- we can see 3 "FOMO Traps" in 3 consecutive days .. where NET opens with a gap (up or down) then runs up fast, only to close lower than open, trapping traders who thought that "this is it! the move up started .. let me in" - or those who have tight BUY STOP orders
- these FOMO Traps don't even show on the Renko - and the Renko chart clearly shows that we're still "not there yet"
- the MACD and the Strength Inspector on the Renko are both far from a positive setup. the MA's are still heading down .. clearly NET still needs to "build up" a bit more before the next leg up;
- The entry setup i'm waiting for has been specified - My Alerts are set .. and the "Fisherman patience" mode is on :) .. waiting for the next ride.
(As usual: This is not a trade recommendation !! but i hope it helps provide couple of good trade analysis nuggets :))
NETNET – some observation
Since reaching a low of around $40 early this year, stock has been rebounding. Tested the $40 level couple of times. That level is likely to act as a strong support.
Additionally, since its IPO (2019) to Dec 2021, the weekly RSI remained above 50 (highlighted); prices generally moved higher during this period.
In Dec 2021, RSI dipped below 50 and remained under that level in 2022, prices moved lower.
In 2023, weekly RSI is back above 50 and if it continues to stay above that level, prices should generally be higher
Cloudflare continues in a trend of lower highs.Cloudflare - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 52.98 (stop at 56.11)
Our short term bias remains negative.
Daily signals are bearish.
The medium term focus remains bearish and intraday rallies continue to find sellers.
The trend of lower highs is located at 54.00.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 54 found sellers.
Our profit targets will be 45.15 and 44.15
Resistance: 47.00 / 51.00 / 54.00
Support: 43.00 / 41.32 / 37.37
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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NET - Breakaway Gap (huge volume!)NET gap out of a right angle triangle with extremely huge volume. This is likely to be a "breakaway gap" which usually occurs at the beginning of a trend and the odds of this gap closing in the near future is slim.
There is a near term possible resistance coming up (filling of a prior gap) at around 77-78. Any dips going forward should be opportunity to long as there is room on the upside.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NETI have been seeing this in a few sectors, but I see a Wyckoff Distribution (#2) occurring here as well. There is a gap at around $50 that I'm expecting it to fill.
1Y
RSI is topping.
MFI is overextending.
5Y
RSI is rising.
MFI is trending up.
ALL
RSI is showing a short incline, but could be peaking at 20 for a drop down after.
MFI is in a decline.
Volume also looks to be trending lower with lower highs.
The indicators could give a case for going higher with some of them being bullish.
Prediction: I believe we will see this fall.
For my educational purpose, not to be used as financial advice.