NKE Short position 20241107Trade NKE Short
Downtrend, high on the curve at a strong, fresh demand zone.
NKE trade ideas
NKE D1 Long Buy Entry @ 84.10
S/L @ 70.82
T/P @ 97.32
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action analysis based on Breakout of target level.
Nik by Dl InvestHello community,
A little daily analysis in log scale, because I use the "Adaptive Trend Finder" and "Price Action Ultimate" indicator.
The channel is bearish.
I drew a Fibonacci retracement in log, to see if there is a golden zone.
If the theory works, we have a target around $90.62.
Nothing says that the title will rebound, change of CEO, so we can hope for change in a while.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Potential Bear Flag in NikeNike has been under pressure since late 2023, and now some traders may look for bearish momentum into year-end.
The first pattern on today's chart is the price area around $88.66. The athletic-apparel stock bottomed there in September 2023 and April 2024. It peaked in the same zone last month before dropping. Has old support become new resistance?
Second is the series of higher lows since August. NKE has been pushing against that trend line recently, which may create potential for a bear-flag breakdown. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is in roughly the same place.
Next, NKE gapped lower after its last quarterly report on October 1. Since then, it's been unable to fill the resulting space on its chart.
Finally, the stock is slipping back below its falling 100-day SMA. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also remained below the 21-day EMA. Those signals may reflect bearishness in the long and short terms.
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Nike Support Zone: Potential Buy OpportunityIf Nike’s price returns to the green support zone, it could present a great buying opportunity. This level has shown strength before, and I believe that buyers could step back in, leading to a potential rebound from this area. Keep an eye on this zone, as it could signal a shift in momentum with the return of bullish activity.
WHY I'M BUYING NIKE STOCK IN 2025 (October 17, 2024)A video explaining why NYSE:NKE potentially has a once in a 40 year buying opportunity, & what I'm personally doing to potentially take advantage of what's next for Nike Stock!!
Nike - Catch this reversal!NYSE:NKE continues its overall uptrend despite the recent drop of -60% to the downside.
All you need in order to catch the reversal of the decade is simply one line: a support trendline. Nike is currently approaching a support trendline, which has been sending prices higher for the past 30 years. Just this fact alone makes me believe that we will see (much) higher prices on Nike over the next couple of weeks and months, but we still need bullish confirmation first!
Levels to watch: $70
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
nke - just do itlong since 81$. If trend holds this would be a nice short term trade. But NKE is also highly undervalued for a long term position so 2 birds with one stone type a thing.
NKE (NIKE, Inc.) BUY TF D1 TP = 94.49On the D1 chart the trend started on Aug. 1 (linear regression channel).
There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 94.49
This level, which I have outlined above, is certainly not a “finish” level. But it is the level that has the “highest percentage of hits on target.”
Using a trailing stop is also a good idea!
Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you!
Good luck!
Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
Calls ideaApparently is forming a double bottom at the support. I bought some calls for 10/18, strike 84. Let's how it goes.
NKE buy gonna grab shares to hold into the new year. looks like we made a lower high and have gaps above to fill. will also grab $100c into Q4 earnings
NKE is still BULLISHNKE took a beating after missing revenues by $50M (.5%) and providing soft guidance. Yet, they continue to buy back their shares (decreasing supply). I fully expect NKE to hit $89.15 by the next Earnings reports, if not $94.10.
There's 10-15% upside within the next 3 months. Don't miss the train!
POSSIBLE BUYS ON NIKE💡 Today we analyze Nike (NKE)
Nike is a solid company in a downtrend, approaching a key resistance and the bearish trend line at $100. Breaking this barrier could signal a recovery.
1. Operational Strength: Nike leads the sports sector and its digital channel continues to grow.
2. Global Expansion: Its focus on sustainability and technology gives it an advantage.
3. Technical Opportunity: Breaking $100 would confirm a possible trend change.
4. Risks: It is crucial to wait for technical confirmation and consider external factors such as inflation and changes in consumption.
This analysis is not an investment recommendation.
Technical Analysis of Nike (NKE)Looking at Nike ’s stock on a monthly timeframe, we can clearly observe that it has been in a downtrend since November 2021, following the formation of a Double Top pattern, confirmed by the development of a Shooting Star candlestick.
The downward movement has currently paused at a support level (SUP) in the $70 area, where the stock has shown a reaction.
At the moment, the stock is trading near a crucial volume level, the Point of Control (POC). Above this level, up to $110, there are significant volumes that could make upward movement more challenging.
Bullish Scenario
For a bullish scenario, the stock needs to break above the current POC level and the descending trendline. The first target could be the resistance (RES 1) around $110.
If it successfully breaks through this resistance with strength, the second target could be the $130 area (RES 2), which has acted as both support and resistance in the past.
Bearish Scenario
However, if the stock lacks the momentum to break through the POC and the entire high-volume area up to RES 1, the downtrend could continue, with the next support (SUP1) located around the $50 area.
This analysis outlines both bullish and bearish scenarios for Nike's stock, offering a clear view of the key price levels to watch.
$NKE with a neutral outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a neutral outlook for NYSE:NKE after a negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 66.67%.
Nike's Sales Drop by Nearly a Billion Dollars During the OlympicNike's shares fell for the fourth consecutive time following the financial release, but this correction was less pronounced than in previous instances. Although the Company narrowly met its revenue targets and failed to offer positive signals for the future, it appears investors believe that the primary negative factors have already been factored in. Furthermore, the new CEO has garnered a degree of "trust credit" from stakeholders. However, the true impact of the report will only become evident today.
Quarterly revenue declined by 10% y/y to $11.6 billion, slightly missing consensus forecasts but aligning with the guidance issued three months prior. Regionally, domestic and EMEA sales faced the steepest declines, dropping 11% and 12% y/y, respectively, which is much worse than a quarter ago. In contrast, sales in China, which represent 15% of total sales, declined by only 4% y/y, defying more pessimistic expectations.
This quarter marks one of the most challenging periods Nike has faced in years. The Company is witnessing a significant erosion of its market share across critical markets and segments. Apparel and footwear sales have plummeted by 11% y/y, a stark contrast to the previous quarter. Direct sales are down by 13% y/y, and wholesale segments have declined by 8% y/y. The initial signs of this downward trajectory were evident last winter, in December 2023, when a dismal financial report and earnings call led to a more than 10% plunge in share value. Yet the current situation appears even more dire, with no clear indication that the downturn has hit its lowest point. Not even the Summer Olympics, which typically boost sales through increased consumer interest in sportswear, managed to reverse this negative trend. During the recent earnings call, management acknowledged the underperformance of key initiatives like the Nike Direct and Nike Digital franchise programs, which saw a sales decline of nearly 15% y/y. The outlook remains grim, with management forecasting that this trend is likely to persist, projecting a double-digit drop in revenue for FY2025.
Profit margins remain stable despite a dip in sales. The gross margin rose by 120 basis points to reach 45.4%, aligning with management's projections. However, demand creation expenses rose by 15% y/y, reaching $1.22 billion. Meanwhile, operating profit fell by 22% to $1.26 billion, even with a slight reduction in general and administrative expenses. As a result, the EBIT margin decreased to 10.9%, reflecting a decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year.
Nike reported quarterly diluted EPS of $0.70, surpassing the consensus forecast of $0.52. A significant driver of the Company's EPS growth has been its share repurchase program. In the recent quarter alone, Nike repurchased 14.8 million shares for a total of $1.2 billion. To date, the Company has spent over $10 billion of its $18 billion share repurchase program.
Following a comprehensive analysis of the financial report, we will revise the price target accordingly.
Georgy Vashchenko, equity analyst Freedom Finance Global:
Nike’s Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations, but Stock Dips 7.85% Nike Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:NKE ) recently reported its Q1 earnings, which beat Wall Street’s expectations, but the company’s stock has since dropped by over 7%. This decline was primarily driven by the company's decision to withdraw its full-year guidance and postpone its long-awaited investor day. Investors are now left grappling with several fundamental and technical concerns as Nike undergoes significant leadership changes and faces headwinds in its core North American market.
Earnings Beat, Revenue Decline, and Leadership Transition
Nike (NYSE: NYSE:NKE ) exceeded analysts' earnings estimates for Q1, reporting earnings of 70 cents per share versus the expected 52 cents. Despite this, revenue fell by 10%, driven largely by a steep 11% decline in North American sales. North America, Nike's largest market, has been a significant point of concern, with sales missing the mark amid lower digital traffic and weak consumer demand. The company’s net income dropped by 28% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, reflecting a broader slowdown.
The most impactful development, however, was Nike's decision to pull its full-year guidance. The company cited a leadership transition, with Elliott Hill set to take over as CEO later this month, replacing John Donahoe. The withdrawal of guidance, along with weaker sales projections, has created uncertainty, leading to a 7.38% drop in pre-market trading.
Adding to the uncertainty, Nike postponed its first investor day in seven years, heightening concerns over how the leadership transition will affect its long-term strategy and financial performance.
Weaker Consumer Demand and Shrinking Margins
Nike’s CFO, Matthew Friend, emphasized the challenging environment, citing weaker digital traffic and reduced retail orders for the upcoming spring season. The company has also faced shrinking margins, primarily due to higher markdowns in an effort to offload inventory. Gross margins fell by 1.5 percentage points, further pressuring profitability.
The company now expects an 8-10% revenue decline in Q2, marking a significant drop from its earlier projections. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales fell by 13%, which has been a focus for Nike's growth strategy. The declining DTC sales add further pressure on its bottom line, as the company must now rethink its approach amid weaker-than-expected performance in both digital and retail channels.
Technical Overview
From a technical standpoint, Nike’s stock has been trading within a falling wedge pattern since its peak in November 2021. This classic chart pattern, characterized by converging downward trendlines, typically signals a bullish reversal once the stock breaks out. However, Wednesday’s sharp earnings-driven decline threatens to derail the recent upward momentum.
Nike (NYSE: NYSE:NKE ) shares rallied more than 25% from the lower trendline of the falling wedge in recent weeks, reflecting investor optimism surrounding the leadership transition. However, the current selling pressure following the Q1 earnings could see the stock retrace to key support levels.
Key Lower Price Levels to Watch
The $85 level will be a critical support zone for Nike. This level is linked to multiple peaks and troughs on the chart, stretching back to 2018. If the stock falls below this support level, investors should be prepared for a potential retracement to $79, where the stock is likely to find buying interest. This $79 level is significant, as it is supported by a multi-year trendline dating back to June 2018, making it a crucial point for bulls to step in.
Higher Price Levels to Watch for a Recovery
On the flip side, if Nike (NYSE: NYSE:NKE ) manages to stabilize and resume its bullish momentum, key resistance lies at $96, just above the 50-week moving average. This level coincides with a countertrend high from June, which could be a point where short-term traders look to book profits. If Nike can clear this level, it could continue rallying towards $104, where the stock may encounter strong overhead resistance near the falling wedge’s top trendline.
However, with significant uncertainty surrounding the company’s future earnings potential and the delayed investor day, Nike’s stock will need a strong fundamental catalyst to break through these resistance levels.
Gap Patterns: Potential for Volatility Ahead
Adding to the technical complexity, Nike’s stock chart shows a series of gap-down patterns that have yet to be filled. This suggests a high likelihood of volatility in the coming days and weeks. Historically, gap-down patterns tend to act as a magnet for price action, as stocks often attempt to fill these gaps during rallies. However, the recent series of failed attempts to fill these gaps suggests continued weakness, with sellers overpowering buyers at key price levels.
Conclusion
Nike’s Q1 earnings beat expectations, but the company’s decision to withdraw full-year guidance has created uncertainty that is weighing heavily on the stock. While the leadership transition brings some hope for a fresh strategic direction under new CEO Elliott Hill, the immediate outlook remains clouded by weak sales and shrinking margins.
Technically, Nike’s stock is at a critical juncture, trading within a falling wedge pattern with key support at $85 and resistance at $96. Investors should closely watch these levels, as a break below $85 could trigger a deeper retracement to $79, while a breakout above $96 could reignite bullish momentum.
In the near term, the stock will likely remain under pressure as investors digest the financial uncertainty and await further guidance from the company’s new leadership. With mixed reactions from analysts and several headwinds facing the company, Nike's path forward will not be straightforward.
$NKE Trade IdeaNYSE:NKE Trade Idea
Puts under $82.5
Target: $80.83, $79.97, $78.10, $76.82
Calls over $83.60
Target: $84.76, $85.40, $86, $87.83
FIBZONE RETRACE after the earnings report may sink lowerAfter canceling the event till the end of the year, the catalyst was not looking good. It is going to be bearish for a while, with two potential spots for the long term: the bottom box in the 70 and then the fibs in 80.
$NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024NYSE:NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
NYSE:NKE price is now approaching the 88.00 - 89.00 level that was a previous support level (week of Apr01'24). Bearish momentum from Jun27'24 earnings broke this level. We are now revisiting it from a bullish rally that was spawned by the CEO retiring and a new one being appointed. The support, the break, and the retest are three visits to this level, which is why I'm now viewing it as a potential entry for trades. Keep an eye out for the Oct01 earnings call.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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NKE bounce on monthly EMA?They are restructuring, changed top designers and laid off 10% of their work force. This should show at the bottom line and boost share price. It's currently at the 52 week low and completely oversold on the daily chart. $72.44 is the first area to consider, the second if that does not hold is $61.71 and the last area to watch is $50.79. Hopefully it bounces sooner than later!
