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Novo Nordisk A/SNovo Nordisk A/SNovo Nordisk A/S

Novo Nordisk A/S

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NVO trade ideas

Finally a stock I like...this one is a real dealFinally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk. You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor (for my sins) and I just didn’t see a lot of value there — it was priced in. Imagine my surprise as I was thinking about “megatrends” (vom) for the year ahead — AI, data, 'zempy. Novo stock has fallen 37.80% in the last six months. And you know what that means…that’s a real deal! Why is it a real deal? (Don’t you like booze stocks Eden?) Ozempic is not going away. At this point it is synonymous with weight loss as “Uber” is to ridesharing or Google is to search. Note this data per Barclays, from recently issued rx data in the US — Ozempic script issuance has grown +8.4%, while WeGovy slightly trails it at 7.4% — both owned by Novo. While Eli Lilly also makes a GLP, Novo is still the leader. Strong guidance from management on sales — +16% - 24% — roughly implies revenue of $48bn for ‘25 and $57bn for ‘26…that’s a compounder. America and much of the western world has an obesity problem. There is a clear incentive for governments to underwrite the drug because obesity has a clear social + fiscal cost on society — per UoA, the fiscal cost of obesity in NZ is at least $2bn¹. People have an incentive to use Ozempic, because they are vain. This is a nice hedge against the booze stocks I like so much. Benefit from both sides of the trade — buy booze at low teens multiples; buy Novo and benefit from lower drinking rates as there’s several studies that imply ‘Zempy reduces drinking. I don’t want Ozempic, because I like to live the good life. This does not mean the vast majority of people won’t use Ozempic. At the moment, one in eight Americans have used a GLP. That’s +334mn people. 40% of Americans are obsese. There’s a Lollapalooza effect happening here — a bunch of incentives — vain people, governments wanting less obese people, the various side health benefits of GLPs, etc. I like when a lot of incentives are aligned because you’re relying on psychology rather than projecting numbers on an excel spreadsheet. Novo has sold off recently due to a trial of its CagriSema drug missing expectations. Eyes on the prize, though — current GLPs, which still have plenty of market to saturate. Eli Lilly has traded up in recent times, while Novo has traded down. The two tend to trade in lockstep so the disconnect is an opportunity to buy the world’s leading GLP maker at a good price. Eli Lilly is the closest comp, but it trades at a 38x fwd multiple, while Novo trades at 20x — i.e. an almost 50% multiple discount (see chart). I like that too… Note analyst recs on chart also… This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
NYSE:NVO
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Buy Opportunity for NVONovo Nordisk A/S – Financial Summary and Outlook (2024): Sales Growth: Up 23% in Danish kroner (DKK 204.7 billion) and 24% at constant exchange rates (CER). Operating Profit: Increased by 21% (DKK 91.6 billion). Net Profit: Rose 18% to DKK 72.8 billion. Product Highlights: Wegovy (Obesity): Sales surged 48% in Q3 (DKK 17.3 billion). Ozempic (Diabetes): Slight sales dip but remains a key contributor. Challenges: CagriSema Trial: Missed expected weight-loss targets, leading to stock decline. Outlook: Adjusted sales growth forecast: 23%-27%; operating profit: 21%-27% (CER). Focus remains on high-demand products (Wegovy, Ozempic) and R&D for future growth.
NYSE:NVOLong
by datavanza
Opening (IRA): NVO March 28th 76 Covered Call... for a 74.50 debit. Comments: Taking what amounts to a modest directional shot with a break even below the 52-week lows, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 74.50 Max Profit: 1.50 ROC at Max: 2.01% 50% Max: .75 ROC at 50% Max: 1.00 Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit by expiry.
NYSE:NVOLong
by NaughtyPines
$NVO more pain ahead! Headed down to $46-55 - NYSE:NVO was one of the hottest stocks of 2024 is now facing immense challenges by other healthcare companies in weight loss drug. - With weak results, it sets up for disappointment for 1-2 quarters. Quick turnaround in experiments isn't feasible and would need considerable time to show promising results. - It's better to put it on watchlist, attend earning call however it is likely that it might underperform FY 2025 or alteast first half of FY 2025.
NYSE:NVOShort
by bigbull037
7
Novo Nordisk | NVO | Long at $86.74The Good: NYSE:NVO expects its GLP-1 drugs Wegovy and Ozempic to soon come off the Food and Drug Administration's official shortage list. Just reported better-than-expected net profit in Q4 2024, amid soaring demand for its obesity drugs. Revenues for the Q4 2024 came in at $11.6 billion, up 30% compared to the same quarter in 2023. From a technical analysis perspective, hovering near my historical simple moving average which may lead to a near-term price increase due to positive earnings The Bad: Slower growth in 2025 (16%-24% for 2025 vs 18%-26% in 2024). Chart has been on a major run since 2020 and may be due for further correction. Personally, the positives outweigh the negatives given the obesity drug demand. Thus, at $86.74, NYSE:NVO is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $96.00 $105.00
NYSE:NVOLong
by WorthlessViews
Final Puke in Process - Wave 5We are approaching a strong trendline support level which begain back in 2017. The stock is heavily oversold, RSI is in a descending wedge pattern. We are also approaching the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement which can provide additional support. I expect a reaction at these levels and a breakout from the falling wedge pattern on the RSI. So far patience has been the best strategy, I do think this is the final Wave 5 of the correction and so this puke can continue a little further. It's hard to get the optimal entry on a falling knife, to play it safe you can await the wedge breakout with strong bullish volume. Not financial advise.
NYSE:NVOLong
by NoFOMO_
4
NVO: A Strong Buy Opportunity for 2025 **NVO: A Strong Buy Opportunity for 2025** 🚀📈 NVO is shaping up to be a compelling buy for this year. The setup is there, fundamentals remain strong, and the market conditions could favor a significant move. Keeping a close eye on key levels—this could be one of the best opportunities of 2025. Chart incoming on TradingView! 📊 #NVO #Investing #Trading #StockMarket Novo Nordisk shares rise on fourth-quarter profit beat, Wegovy sales jump
NYSE:NVOLong
by Maximus20000
NVO presents an opportunityNVO has been getting absolutely slaughtered lately, I cannot help but be more bullish than ever on this. The stock falls deeper into the long-term demand zone. Stocks usually bottom on bad news, this is the market pricing the stock in as more and more bad news comes down the road. A final blow is given, and the market realizes the fundamentals do not match the price. This will happen for NVO. BBWP needs to cool off here, the stock needs to consolidate. Stochastic has reset.
NYSE:NVOLong
by Apollo_21mil
1/7/25 - $nvo - Probs a buy in low 80s... but...1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NVO Probs a buy in low 80s... but... Friend who highlighted some good calls last year DM'd me (ty!) about this one. Figured i'd copy/paste my response in case anyone could add to this logic or is more knowledgeable on catalysts timing etc. 1/ i typically stay away from pharma (mainly bc i look at so many sectors and this is the singular one i've never covered professionally) 2/ the financials look great. growth, margins, cf generation - all "A" grade 3/ unclear how the NASDAQ:SAVA result will affect px performance in the coming days given diabetes seems to be a relevant part of the portfolio (but obviously this is a mega diversified name) so in short, it's defn a buy here, but given my conviction on maybe 5 other names that i can really size up, i've set an even greedier entry look closer to sub $80... not that i'd not own it here, but just i don't want to overcomplicate my book at the moment while i'm moving/ shaking aggressively on other stuff. 4/ also, what the banana hammock happened on dec 19 - unlocking that "event's bottom"/ implication looks like the key to determining how low this goes. it's already massively oversold, so if it wicks much further, it's simply a buy on mean reversion anyway - could probably pick up an easy 5+% under $80 without even trying (which is my lazy approach here). but i don't fault u if u own it - looks legit. 5/ options chain implying meager MT move keeps me wondering if this is dead money for the immediate term and i should only be a greedy buyer in the mid 70s. i think there's a way to generate yield here, but feels too risk adverse for my style (high octane) until i can gear it up at these lower levels with a better sense for mkt rippity-do-dah so - what do u think, anon? V
NYSE:NVOLong
by VROCKSTAR
NVO LongNovo Nordisk, a global leader in diabetes and obesity treatments, has traditionally maintained a solid financial standing with strong revenue growth, impressive profitability, and a robust pipeline of new treatments. However, the company has recently faced a significant dip in its stock price, largely due to market concerns related to its obesity treatment segment. While these concerns may reflect short-term volatility or market uncertainty, it’s important to recognize that the company's underlying fundamentals remain strong. When evaluating the company through the lens of intrinsic value indicators—such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratios, and projected growth rates—Novo Nordisk appears to be trading at a favorable price relative to its long-term growth potential. This suggests that, despite the recent drop in stock price, the company’s shares may be undervalued, offering a potentially attractive entry point for investors who are willing to take a long-term view. In the long run, the obesity treatment market is expected to grow, and Novo Nordisk’s leadership in this space, along with its diversified portfolio and innovation-driven strategy, could well position it to benefit from future market developments. Therefore, the current stock price may present a buying opportunity for those who believe in the company’s continued strength and market leadership. #DYOR
NYSE:NVOLong
by zdmre
Novo Nordisk's The recent drop in Novo Nordisk's stock price is attributed to several factors. A key issue is the company’s struggle to meet the surging demand for its weight-loss drugs, such as Wegovy. Although demand remains strong, investors are concerned about Novo Nordisk's ability to scale up production and deliveries, which is creating downward pressure on the stock. Additionally, some recent financial results failed to meet Wall Street expectations. Despite revenue growth in key product categories, overall revenues in some reports came in below forecasts. This underperformance has contributed to a negative investor sentiment. However, analysts emphasize that Novo Nordisk's core products remain in high demand, and the company has significant long-term growth potential if it addresses its supply chain and production challenges
OMXCOP:NOVO_BLong
by ForexCompany
$NVO - gimme a POP LONGWassup folks, so: some of my ideas have proven to be correct and I'm watching others. NYSE:NVO has earnings approaching eom January. They have also experienced a sell off recently, however I think there's some potential for a pop to the upside... this underlying has some juice in it too, currently holding an IVR of 55%. There's some rich premium to be sold! Entering a put credit spread 01/31 selling the 88 strike and buying the 86 strike! Break even will be the sold put strike minus credit collected = $87.50 ish!, I'LL ALSO BE RUNNING A TIGHT STOP HERE... ANYTHING WITH A CLOSE BELOW $80 HANDLE IS AN OUT FOR ME
NYSE:NVOLong
by taekwone1
NVO highest conviction trade of the yearNVO has sold off brutally after breaking the macro momentum trend. This stock was indeed overheated but sold off even worse after a miss on projected weight loss percentage of a new med. We have hit the golden pocket correction. BBWP is maxed out, and stochastic RSI is bottoming. This is extremely overblown, this new med is not even adding to their already massive revenue. I expect NVO to hit well over 110$ this year as healthcare in general lags into uncertain markets. I love trading these gap style plays or massive over reaction sell offs. Novo Nordisk is one of the most fundamentally strong companies in the world. As SPX becomes even more expensive, investors will look internationally. My plan: Short term side ways I plan on layering into out of the money LEAPS, likely 110 as that will allow me to capture a lot of delta expansion
NYSE:NVOLong
by Apollo_21mil
NOVO has developed an H&S formationAs others have also mentioned on Trading View, NOVO has developed an H&S formation. The formation is to some extent supported by volume. Volume should be large when forming the left shoulder 1, as well as when forming the head 2, and when the price goes down at the right shoulder 4, but when forming the right shoulder the volume should be low 3. It is not. Since May, the volume balance has been negative, i.e. high volume at the price bottom and low volume at the price peak. At 794, there will be a significant break of 3%, especially if it is supported by high volume. There is no significant break yet. The object is heading towards 629. An H&S formation is a reversal formation. NOVO has been in a bullish trend, according to MA. However, the price is now below SMA 200. The price momentum indicators go from sell to buy within a month on Trading View. The price is well below a red cloud in Ichimocu. It is not possible to say now whether we will have a significant break down or whether the price will recover. The forecast will depend on this. Fundamentally, analysts are predominantly positive about the stock. Many companies would like to enter the obesity market, but there are far from good results in a phase 1 study to a finished drug, if it becomes a drug at all. Disclaimer: I have a relatively large position in the stock, which I bought when the shares plunged during the covid19 epidemic. I have sold 1/4 share when the price had tripled, so I am thinking of sitting still now even in the face of the technical picture - I am long. In the past, price has fluctuated between two pivot lines at times. Then I have swing traded NOVO. NB: Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
OMXCOP:NOVO_B
by scorpiris
1