NYA trade ideas
BEARISH CASE CRASH 1929 /1987 THE CHART POSTED IS THAT OF THE BEARISH CASE .THAT THE SIDEWAYS MOVED FROM JAN 2018 ENDED A TRIANGLE IN OCT 2019 FOR MAJOR WAVE 4 .IF THIS CORRECT THEN THE SP WOULD SEE TWO TARGETS FIST IS 2334 AT A .382 1987 MODEL THE ALT IS THE SP WOULD SEE 1708. I DO NOT SEE THE DROP SO FAR AS PANIC BASED ON TRIN OR VIX I AM STARTING TO GET TARGETS IN THE VIX AT 59
LINE IN THE SAND THE NYSE JUST HIT .618 AND WAVE A X 1.618 200DTHE PANIC CYCLE DUE FROM FEB 10 WINDOW STARTED ON 02202020 AND WE DROPPED MIN 6.1 TO 6.6 DROP IF THE BULL MARKET IS STILL ALIVE WEE MUST HOLD THE 13100 AREA IF NOT THE FORECAST THAT MARKET THE RALLY FROM DEC LOW 2018 IS WAVE A LOW AND THAT THE HIGH WE SAW WAS WAVE B IN A VERY LARGE TRIANGLE FOR ALL OF 2020 . BEST OF TRADES
Don't be fooled by bloated tech!This week, the market threw the bears in for yet another shocking reversal, just as it seemed the tide was finally turning. It knocked the bears over with a "history making" week of 1% overnight gap ups. That is until Friday, when the gap direction suddenly turned back in the bears' favour.
So what's the deal? When in doubt, I look at this more ancient and comprehensive market index that is not as deformed by bloated tech stocks. And what is this wiser signal telling me? Looks like we have formed a major double top with significant down turn technical signals in place. This includes, weekly RSI divergence, weekly red MACD, titanic crash warning, hindenberg crash warning, rising vix, rising bond prices, consolidating metal prices, falling liquidity, falling oil prices, fully completed elliot wave cycle, apple falling, and tsla (finally) falling.
Should this evidence suffice? Who knows? All I know is I have started my battle plan and I intend to outlast the central banks with my friends. Short until end of 2021 (at least) and will hold through all illusionary (manipulated) rallies.
Good luck all!
NYSE - AnalysisThis is a chart of the NYSE since March 2009 the beginning of the current bull market. The NYSE Composite has made new highs in the last couple weeks and has finally breached the underside of the control line for the first time since last year's sell-off. I broke the chart into four time periods that represent the beginning of a run to its peak and through its correction using FIB retracement. The total gain over the last 11 years has been roughly 330% - very impressive for a basket of 1900 stocks. Looking at each of the four time periods the first run saw prices climb 108% before a 50% retracement. The second run saw prices climb 75% with again a nearly 50% retracement. The third run saw prices rise 52% and a 61.8% retracement (the largest of the retracements). The fourth run that we are currently in has seen prices climb 30%, and has finally made it above the control line and back into the channel that it fell out of last year. What does this all mean? I'm not sure but what I do see from looking at the numbers is that each successive run is having smaller and smaller percentage gains. This is in part due to the fact that we are in year 11 of a super bull market and the law of large numbers will prevent those percentages from expanding as prices rise. Taking a look at absolute gains, the first run was a 4,500 point gain, the second was a 4,800 point gain, the third was a 4,700 point gain, and the fourth so far has been a 3210 point gain. I'm not sure if we will see something in the 4.500 point range for this run but if we do that would imply a move over the 15,000 area or so which would push this index to the top end of the channel. Based on market sentiment, greed index, VIX and the factors it does not seem likely that this would occur but at the end of blow off tops all bets are off and anything can happen. Looking at RSI, with the exception of the beginning of 2018 where RSI hit a peak of nearly 90, this indicator has stayed between 30 and 70 with no wavering. We are at the top end of that range right now and I would anticipate that a turn is coming soon. We went from 30 at last year's bottom to 70 through 12 months. How long it takes to get back down to 30 is anyone's guess but what I suspect is that we are getting really close to this index rolling over and what may be looked back upon as a double top when all is said and done. I truly believe without the FED stimulus the last month this market would have already rolled over. Mr. Greenspan's term irrational exuberance could not be more applicable than it is right now. AMD has not had a down week since September. Nothing has changed but the stock is up 60% during that time and absolutely nothing has changed with their story. Chips are leading the melt up and will have to start the meltdown. Look at MU's results this week relative to last year's numbers.....down remarkably and continuing in that direction despite the CEO attempting to say that this last quarter marked a bottom. Something is out there. Not sure what it is but when it hits it will be extraordinary and something we will all say ..... Oh Yeah, that was obvious!
At breaking point...I believe market is at a breaking point. It should either make the decision to melt up in a moon shot or fall off the cliff soon, with either event far exceeding the average population's expectations.
I will boldly continue standing narrowly on the bearish side, although it could easily go either way. Why? Technical indicators still suggest to me that a massive bearish event is about to unfold. Sentiment indicators are extremely worrisome. For example, tomorrow's SPY P/C ratio closed at an insane level of 0.29 with the largest p/c volume spread between 305 and 322. The fear & greed index also closed at an extreme greed value of 91. See for yourselves: money.cnn.com
Good luck friends.
NYA makes ATHThe NYA broke through ATHs today, essentially eliminating the most bearish of possibilities imho. As long as the XLF still remains under it's 2007 ATH there is still a *very slim* chance that these possibilities exist. However, my guess is we will gap right through that top tomorrow morning.
There remains one bearish count in which we will complete a large degree 4th wave dropping toward 2016 levels. However, every other alternative count favours the bulls now imo. In fact, the most bullish count which suggests DOW skyrocketing toward 40000+ is now a very real possibility. My only hesitation on trading to that level is seeing extreme bearish divergence in the charts.
Stay safe, friends.
NYA at critical juncture againToday, the NYA *nearly* made a new secondary high and the XLF *succeeded*. (However XLF still has yet to exceed the 2008 ATHs).
This suggests we are yet again at a critical juncture where the most bearish considerations could be eliminated within a day; and where a megafold of bullish possibilities could unravel.
However... I maintain my primary count as bearish for the time-being because there still exists *enormous* bearish divergence on the chart. Thus, it could very well be a final trick of the central banks which *should* eventually be proven wrong by the elliot waves.
Trade safe.
NYA and XLF fail to breech ATHsBoth the very important NYA and XLF indices failed to break ATHs and turned down viciously today. With the daily MCO now negative again, embedded within 30-day H.O.+ T.S. signals, there is potential for catastrophic system failure here.
In terms of saeculum world view, I'm still convinced we are entering the 4th turning of the globalization phase of humanity. Believe me, I would much rather be alive in the New Awakening period where we may enter a blissful exploration universe like depicted by Star Trek. However... this is what events in the world today tell me today. There is growing social unrest and tension in all corners of our planet, with Brexit, trade wars and escalation in Hong Kong about to explode to more dangerous levels still.
Waving my YELLOW warning flag now. My primary elliot path is now down, with the bullish alternate in dotted lines. My RED flag will come out if the downtrend persists for multiple days.
Trade safe, friends.
A second critical juncture (see my post on XLF for the other)I suspect that if the NYA fails to breech the 2018 ATHs, a devastation wave beyond imagining shall arrive to likely completely a large degree 4th wave or, worse, a bull market termination megaphone pattern. Currently the daily and weekly RSI and sudden red shift in daily MCO suggest this is the higher probability. This bearish shift has suddenly arrived in the presence of both H.O. and Titanic Syndrome signals.
If we break above the ATHs, there is indeed a chance that a 2016-2017 type rally will resume. However, I still do not think it is a high probability, given where we are in the economic cycle. Rather, I suspect, something very strange would play out instead.
Trade safe, friends.
NYSE Composite - Also looking toppyOld measure and still has not taken out the old high from 2018 top. Broader measure of stocks. This looks like it is ready to roll over. Patience!
Is this the reality?Perhaps this ancient index is the one that represents the true reality of the stock market.
No, we have not made ATHs since Jan 2018. This means we are likely already in a bear market.
Yes, the Hindenberg Omen, Titanic Syndrome and negative MCO have triggered as of today's close.
Yes, RSI divergence since Jan 2018 is enormous.
Consider this question carefully. What typically happens at the next stage of a bear market of this size? Has anyone alive today even seen such a large (potentially topping) structural formation?
Please stay safe.
TREND CHANGE SPIRALS IN TIME FOCUS 9/20 TO 9/23 TOP 2019 THE PEAK IN TIME 2019 BASED ON SPIRALS AND FIB
Peak of bull market was 1/22/18On January 22nd 2018 the bull market peaked and we can expect that highs were put in. We have been sideways since as retail isn't sure what's going on yet. We are in a bear market we just don't know it yet.
NYSE Potentially Setting Up H&SThis pattern will delight and disappoint bears, as it leads to short term squeezes with long-term payoff. Would be hard to hold a short through this cycle, especially given the need to roll contracts beyond September.
Invalid if price dumps early, which it may.
makes the case for a bounce heremy gut doesnt agree with a bullish stance, but I follow the lines, not my gut. DISCIPLINE TRUMPS CONVICTION
NYSE medium-term target -35%Thanks for viewing.
I have talked about fundamental factors in previous posts that point in the same direction. This post is almost 100% from the chart.
- The NYSE has been making a series of lower highs since January 2018 (The Dow and the S&P 500 are smaller samples of the market and have been making higher highs of late),
- Even the Swing high (which is well below the all-time high) of 13,261.770 set in Sept 2018 wasn't able to be broken last month,
- My target is a 1.618 extension of the price action between Sept 2018 and July 2019 which sits right around a key support level from April 2011,
- The one major fundamental factor (I am ignoring worsening of the trade war here) that happened since my last posts is that the Fed dropped rates 0.25% (taking interest rates back below the inflation rate - back to negative real interest rates) and the market reacted by selling-off. If you look into previous market cycles, the Fed normally dropped rates BEFORE the price drops started. This seems to be more of a key signal to the market that hard times are upon us, as opposed to the intended support of the markets. The monetary policy experiment of the past 10 years hasn't worked unfortunately. Expect interest rates to trend to zero - and possibly below while the world moves to save-haven assets.
My target is NYSE at or around 8500 level in the next 6 to 18 months. This isn't the end of the world, it is just the market heading for more reasonable valuations while the world deleverages significant debt levels.
NYSE Composite at Key Pivot PointThe NYSE, a laggard compared to $SPX, $NDAQ, et al, is just points away from printing a higher high (Sep/Oct high), but also bound to the peak of a potentially dangerous ascending wedge. Should a higher high be printed, this would be very bullish for the market in general. However, if it does indeed top here, it suggests a strong reversal is likely across all the major indices. Hardly a coincidence, given that next Wednesday's FOMC notes will reveal whether or not a July rate cut is coming. The market has currently priced in a 25bp rate cut in July. Pausing, or hiking would be incredibly bearish and probably spark a prompt sell off.
NYSE bear market short entry before DEEP correctionHi all,
Where we are right now:
1, Historically over-valued equity markets (average PE in excess of 30 in the SPX) / low dividend returns on equity (dividend yields approaching the return rate on Treasuries),
2. Volatility high and increasing (i.e. investors 2-4%pa dividend payouts can be wiped out in a day or two of bearish sentiment),
3. The market hasn't made a higher high in 17 months,
4. Global growth outlooks are being downgraded (New Zealand, Australia, China, and the USA and more just within the last few weeks and the IMF downgraded global growth outlooks for 2019 on the 9th of April),
5. Interest rates are set to drop again (it is becoming apparent Quantitative Easing monetary policy is a box that cannot be closed again),
6. There seems to be capital flight to safety - especially into USD treasuries and into the JPY,
7. Gold up 5% since the 22nd of May,
8. There are deeply concerning political signals being sent to the U.S. economy (and the world) by politicians who appear to be working AGAINST the best interests of the nation (despite what are probably good intentions).
9. Plus, if Douchebank goes under it may necessitate liquidation of 47 trillion in derivative contracts www.wsj.com
My original bearish position on the S&P500 was simply based on points 1 and 2. Despite everything else, these two points are sufficient to explain why this drop will be a big one. If all the gains (capital and dividend) from the past 2 years can be wiped out in a few days or a week, then the investors are clearly taking more risk vs the reward they are receiving (if they are in profit). Tiny dividends are okay as long as the share price continues upwards, but sideways or down just won't do the trick anymore. Most of the buying of the past 18 months seems to have been from buy-backs and leveraged traders. Most of the buying of the past 10 years can be traced directly to Quantitative Easing monetary policy - cheap cash looking for a place to go. There is a chance that the experimental remedy for the 2009 crisis removed the symptoms temporarily while the underlying illness progressed.
I don't want to mention Elliot Wave, as so many people write it off, but EW points to the maturing of a very long-term cycle - I see the bull-run post 2009 as being the final impulse wave up before a correction. Lets ignore EW, but the past 10 years has seen the weakest economic expansion in history parallel with a very strong bull-run in the NYSE / SPX / DOW, is it more reflective of central bank monetary policy instead of real growth? www.bigtrends.com
Oh well, that's enough. Good luck everyone. You might read the above as in a completely different way - and remain bullish. I just can't see how right now. All I see from todays bullishness is a place to note the end of wave (1) down. Next should be a lower high.
