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NYA trade ideas

NYSE in a bear market for past 16 monthsThe NYSE is the biggest and most liquid equity market in the world. It has been highly volatile since the start of 2018 and has been making lower highs and lower lows since Jan 2018. Yet there is still talk on the ongoing equity bull market in the US. From all time high in Jan 2018 to the brief low in December 2018 the drop was over 20%, meaning we are technically in a bear market. www.multpl.com (not for the NYSE index but a reasonable proxy) shows that the S&P 500 currently sits at 31.05 average PE ratio as at May the 3rd. A valuation of 31 times earnings is very high and has historically proved to be unsustainable. The earnings are diluted too much and dividend returns of 2-4% become common (unless the Company juices the dividend returns with borrowed money or increases share buy-backs), which is okay when the equity price is rising... but when it is volatile or dropping the calculus changes. Investors realise that the risk adjusted returns are too low and will seek lower but safer returns, or higher returns elsewhere (possibly in growing emerging markets). This situation will result in profit-taking (as is happening). On the way down, I expect average PE ratios to blow through a fair 15:1 level and go below (the bottom of my blue box is where (if earnings remain stable) PE ratios will equal roughly 15:1. Waves (1) through (5) appear to form the 5th wave of a much larger multi-decade move (not charted due to space). Hopefully, I have charted a plausible scenario. If you use the Elliot Wave principle in practice you would look for: - wave (2) to retrace not below the start of wave (1) which is the case, - wave (2) to retrace more than wave (4); wave (2) retraced 50% while wave (4) retraced more than 38% but less than 50% (its just a guideline - but a useful guideline), - wave (3) to generally be the longest wave (often the longest nut never the shortest) and to normally exceed a 1:1 extension of wave (1) - which is the case, - wave (4) should not enter into the wave (1) territory (some exceptions exist) - which is the case, - and wave (5) to normally end around the 1.618 extension of wave (1) which is ALMOST EXACTLY the case. - This will precede an ABC correction that retraces a significant portion of the previous move (which seems to be unfolding). - The past 9 years of the NYSE is a textbook example of an impulse wave - the only thing missing would be for wave (3) to be a bit steeper / faster moving price move. Sometimes it is hard to arrive at a wave count, but not in this case. Sometimes waves extend, but seemingly not in this case. Fundamental justifications for my bearish view include corporate debt loads, volatility, risk adjusted return, downward revision in global growth prospects, money managers reducing exposure to equities, and my views on the manipulation of interest rates and currency supply by the fed among other factors. I have already added significantly to my margin via successful short trades last week and will be looking to re-enter short once a lower high has formed. The hard part will be holding on. Just one last comment (if this wasn't already long enough); I don't revel in my bearish view. If I (and a lot of other people) am right this will mean employment and investment losses and everything negative that is associated with that. All I am trying to do is to protect myself and my family. Thanks for viewing and protect those funds.
TVC:NYAShort
by flyinkiwi10
1
WAVE 1 OF THE BLOWOFF TIMING IS EVERYTHING Back in late aug I had a fib and spiral turn sept 2 which based on a fractal gave me two downside target s 1 st 2334 2nd was 2278 the low was 2346.58 cash but in the NYSE AND THE DOW it was an near perfect .618 AT THE LOW AS WELL AS IN THE BANK SECTOR . So were to we go from here ? . iF we stop here into my fib projection was 2762 plus or minus 1 the only real alt target for wave 1 was 2788 from here we should see a strong drop into 2604 plus or minus 5 and form a right shoulder bottom . And then the upside in wave 3 sometime from march low the peak should be MID JULY . From that top is my guess the next bear market into 2022 . over the last year I have made it very clear I saw the jan 27 peak as the bull market . In 1920 s bull the sept 29 top was that of a blowoff I see the same here . BEST OF TRADES !! WAVETIMER
TVC:NYALong
by WilliamSignorile
Examination of the NYA and SPXThe NYSE Composite (NYA) has been much weaker than the three main US stock indices. Today 12/26/26 was the last day of the Full moon widow for a bullish turn. 12/26/18 was also the 58 trading day of the decline since the DJIA 10/3/18 top, matching the 58 trading day decline of the SPX correction in 1998. The 1998 SPX correction was down 22.4% so far the 2018 SPX correction at the low today was down 20.2% Today the NYA went just 10 points below a .618 retrace of the bull move from February 2016 to January 2018. Toady daily Stochastics had bullish cross over. I will have another post on 12/27/18 examining a fascinating SPX retracement. I remain bullish and believe the decline from the all-time high is just a correction within the bull market that began in 2018. If the SPX did not bottom today it could reach 2280 in a few trading days. Mark
TVC:NYALong
by markrivest
4