NYA trade ideas
WAVE 1 OF THE BLOWOFF TIMING IS EVERYTHING Back in late aug I had a fib and spiral turn sept 2 which based on a fractal gave me two downside target s 1 st 2334 2nd was 2278 the low was 2346.58 cash but in the NYSE AND THE DOW it was an near perfect .618 AT THE LOW AS WELL AS IN THE BANK SECTOR . So were to we go from here ? . iF we stop here into my fib projection was 2762 plus or minus 1 the only real alt target for wave 1 was 2788 from here we should see a strong drop into 2604 plus or minus 5 and form a right shoulder bottom . And then the upside in wave 3 sometime from march low the peak should be MID JULY . From that top is my guess the next bear market into 2022 . over the last year I have made it very clear I saw the jan 27 peak as the bull market . In 1920 s bull the sept 29 top was that of a blowoff I see the same here . BEST OF TRADES !! WAVETIMER
BULL CASE NYSE THE WEAK LEAK IS KEY ALWAYS The NYSE could be counted as ending the correction from jan peak now based on the drop jan 27 to feb low x 1.618 from the b wave top oct 3 within 30 point I am now moving to a 75 % long as of this morning pull back and will move to a 100 % on any new low under 12/26 I SEE THIS DROP AS WE SAW IN 1998 PANIC DROP NOW . BEST OF TRADES IF RIGHT WE SHOULD SEE 3059 TO 3150 INTO SUMMER OF 2019
Examination of the NYA and SPXThe NYSE Composite (NYA) has been much weaker than the three main US stock indices.
Today 12/26/26 was the last day of the Full moon widow for a bullish turn.
12/26/18 was also the 58 trading day of the decline since the DJIA 10/3/18 top, matching the 58 trading day decline of the SPX correction in 1998.
The 1998 SPX correction was down 22.4% so far the 2018 SPX correction at the low today was down 20.2%
Today the NYA went just 10 points below a .618 retrace of the bull move from February 2016 to January 2018.
Toady daily Stochastics had bullish cross over.
I will have another post on 12/27/18 examining a fascinating SPX retracement.
I remain bullish and believe the decline from the all-time high is just a correction within the bull market that began in 2018.
If the SPX did not bottom today it could reach 2280 in a few trading days.
Mark
Long NYA 15M TF on breakout of trend indicatorTop - trend indicator with TL over its peaks. Recently violated (right)
Below- NYA price
NYA is a measure of market breadth and/or broad sentiment.
Reset of 9 years of FED pumping ?While everyone was paying attention to the SPX NDX and DJI, the NYA was showing the early divergence. Following a parallel pattern, the 13th month would be FEB 2019, which corresponds to NOV 2008. Almost every indicator I follow confirms a 3rd wave down. A 5 week average of the advance/decline line which I have been doing by hand for decades is even below the 2008-09 low. The all time bullish sentiment by Investors Intelligence had been a little over 5 at the beginning of 1987, with a secondary peak of about 3.5 in August. The reading for JAN 2018 eclipsed the 1987 peak by a small percentage. The secondary reading in SEP 2018 was about 3.2. The smart money last hour index has been going straight down since JAN. The 8 month double top was obviously a huge distribution pattern. Usually, nothing ever repeats in the same manner, but I would sell all violent rallies. After 9 years of zero percent interest rates and corporations using that free money to highly leverage their companies, this reset should be quite ugly.
Has Capitulation Already Occured ..?Margin Debt Liquidation, according to the website WolfStreet.com
hit 40 Billion Dollars in the Month of October 2018,
the highest monthly sale of debt since the Lehman Crisis,in November 2008.
If you were asking yourself, WHY DID, the market go down so far,
so fast,look at the massive amount of forced selling.
feeding on each other, as prices continued to drop, thus forcing
more selling, and so on.
So if if that selling has already occurred, and out of the way,
and the market is in the process of making higher lows,
as it tries to recover, and rally back,
the question that needs to be answered is..
because the light bulb just turned on..
Has Capitulation Already Occurred...?
I don't know for certain the answer to that question,
but certainly margin debt selling is compelling new evidence,
that the capitulation that many have been waiting for,
... might have already have occurred.
Very important subject matter, that requires for a revisit soon.
THE_UNWIND
11/27/18
NEW YORK
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE UPDATED FOR NYSE TARGET 11370 TO 10850 IT NOW APPEARS THAT ODDS ARE WE HAVE JUST STARTED WAVE C FROM 12682 WAVE B TOP WHICH WAS .61B RALLY WAS THE PEAK FOR WAVE B OR 2 WHICH WOULD MEAN A CYCLE LOW DUE NEAR 12/4 TO 12/11 FROM OCT 3 PEAK BEST OF TRADES
NEXT BULL PHASE IN NYA THE PULLBACK WAS A VERY CLEAR ABC DOWN AND THE PULL BACK HIT A .382 LOOK FOR AT LEAST A YEAR END RALLY
Here a good proxy for the marketI am back and back with a nice chart of the New York Average that sports a textbook ZigZag down implying a couple of things. First we should see a rally from current level with any more weakness, if needed, should be limited. Then a 3 waves down is a counter trend move meaning the long term trend is up. Though we might have to be patient. Maybe this Zig Zag is part of a larger correction that might last many more months. We just don't know.
So let's focus on the short term. I labeled the count as being not over yet but it might be. Regardless a rally is in the cards and we will keep you eye on it. Anymore weakness should be limited at 11650 where we have equality between waves.
Bottom line the bulk of the damage has been done and a good rally is in the card. Short term and long term
Keep in mind, every storm eventually runs out of rain !
A case for a i.t bottom targets in NYSE 11830 TO 11660 THE MARKET TOPPED WORLDWIDE ON JAN 27 2018 . AND THE SPIRAL POINTED TO A PANIC INTO FEB 4 TO 10 FOCUS ON FEB 9 ON TARGET AND CYCLES POINTED TO A UPTREND TO START ON 4/2 BASED ON THE 10.8 TO 11.3 WEEK CYCLE. AND I POSTED THE SPIRAL OF 8/31 TO 9/12 WAS DUE AND A PANIC INTO THE WEEK INTO OCT 10 TO 20 . THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS THAT THE PEAK OF JAN 27 WAS THE PEAK AND THE FEB 9 LOW WAS WAVE THE RALLY INTO 9/3 WAS WAVE AND THAT WAVE DOWN IS ABOUT OVER BASED ON NYSE WAVE C SHOULD BOTTOM AT 11861 TO 11633 WERE THE WAVE A = C AND .382 FROM LOW OF 2016 AS FOR IDEAL TIMING THE CORRECTION FROM MAY 2015 TO JAN 2016 35 TO 38 WEEKS IS NOW TO NOV 10 SPIRAL HE WORST IS OVER IF THE BULL IS INTACT AND IF IT IS THIS DECLINE IS MATCHING TWO DATES BULL CASE OCT 1998 PANIC OR LATE 1999 BOTH WOULD BE A BLOWOFF WAVE TO FOLLOW . BEAR CASE IS A MATHING TOP SEE 2000 AND 2007 PEAK ALL HAD A FIRST PEAK AND 7.5 MONTHS LATER THE DECLINE FOR A NEW BEAR STARTED BOTH COUNT
NYSE will crash to 11800I see that the US market start to collapse
so I think that it will move toward 11800 area
this previous crash the first time I think that it is impossible to recover to uptrend
So I'm bearish in this NYSE composite
strongest rally of the yearelliot analysis on NYA
13550 expected to be hit before the end of september
