PCG trade ideas
PG&E trend line breakoutAfter some recent analyst upgrades, PG&E got a big breakout above its downward trend line this morning. It could move upward or it could move downward, but it should stay above that trend line. This is the first bullish sign that PG&E is looking to form a bottom. I've taken a small entry here. If it moves downward to form a U-shaped bottom, I will look to take a larger entry near the bottom.
$PCG The fire might be out in PG&EThe California energy company has been the center of attention for all the wrong reasons for months and the price drop reflects that.On the 03/04/19 named a new CEo and 10 new board members, these sweeping changes found the support of investors as the price gained 5% on the news, expect future gains.
Pacific Gassing the GaPMarkets are on general path down. PCG is setting up nicely to continue its run up in the short term with minor resistance at $20 and strongly at $24.00.
Things are not totally in the clear for PCG as there is lots of headwinds fundamentally (bankruptcy, liable, costs to prevent infrastructure mishaps expected to increase...etc..). This is not the first time PCG ran for BK, so experience is on their side and the uncertainty of how things will go can present some very nice short term swing trades in both directions (options). Keep a close eye on the momentum direction and play the trend.
PRICE ACTION:
Long Term S/R Level at 14.50 and 17.00 (set back in 1988) along with bouncing out of the sub-10 levels set back in 2001 and again 2003, when a nice "W" appeared and $24.00 was touched. (sorry you need to zoom out to see this). These levels are identified with S/R lines @ 14.50(S), 16.92(S) and 23.96(R). Technically, the uptrend from the start of the year to present was pretty consistent with the overall market, however unlike the general market, the UP trendline set in January has not broken and still has room to move sideways. Additionally, the Down trendline established from Nov-18 to Jan-2019 was broken, and with confidence. Likewise the 1988 Support at 16.92 held wonderfully and trading resumed higher along the January 2019 trend line.
If 19.00 is broken and the PCG can stay away from negative news, then a march to 20 could be very realistic. For the short term, I like the swing trade between 19.00 and 20.00. Ill take $1.00 all day. Should the 20.00 break then look to hold into $24.00. For me the GAP Down on January 7, 2019 is a level to watch closely.
EXPECTED ENTRY/EXIT: 20.00/24.00
TIME FRAME: 6 months
TYPE of TRADE: Short Term Swings (19-20) and hold to 24.00 if the 20 breaks.
PCG down again?This is hard to say if this is the case or not but PCG is looking mighty tasty for another price implosion.
They have pushed their earnings not once, not twice, not three times but five times. They were supposed to happen on the 8th, it was rumored that they were going to happen on the 12th 15th 22nd and now the 28th. The longer they push them out the less likely they are painting a pretty picture...
Now we have Gavin Newsome stepping in to create his version of trumps plunge protection team; but he calls it a strike team to save PCG and to keep other utilities in the state from being held liable. Sounds like a bailout to me. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
Bearish chart-Hit long term resistance at 14.51 today and was rejected
-Hit long term resistance at 14.11 and was rejected
-Hit long term resistance at 14.03 around market close and seems to have been rejected again
-After hours saw higher lows but kept hitting resistance at 14.00.
Currently Price sits at 14.07
Due to current bankruptcy filing pending approval it would seem that this would be the ideal time for major players to make their exit. It is my belief that recent increase in share price has been in preparation via manipulation by major players to pull out before or at news regarding bankruptcy status.Now no longer in the S&P500 having been booted PG&E fully intends on pursuing chapter 11 Bankruptcy. In light of mounting debts caused by recent disasters in which PG&E has been found liable an argument can be made that the company is solvent (meaning their debts do not eclipse their income) but as of right now the total debts can only be estimated and may wind up being far more than the company is capable of handling without filing for bankruptcy.
If bankruptcy is approved i expect that the stock price will rapidly decline or existing shares will be wiped out completely.
if bankruptcy is not approved i expect to see this spike before diving downwards.
71.385 billion in total assets
51.68 billion in existing debt
Estimates of +30 billion from California wildfire liabilities.
19.444 billion in tangible assets which include 12.833 Billion in common shares
Unless liabillities for California wildfire are less than estimates in the ball park of under 20 billion i don't see much upside for bullish share holders