RIG trade ideas
RIG Might Top SoonRIG is one of my biggest long holdings but it might top soon. Since it's shorts favorite pig it could fall fast once peaked.
Good long term hold once dropped.
Rig updatedMy previous analysis now seems a bit optimistic. The larger picture is still unchanged though.
Several points:
1. Rig is the leader in OSD so the strength of the overall market helps a lot
2. The market is pricing in a lot of the negative news. Even if no deal in this OPEC meeting, any news on continuous deal efforts could keep oil bears in check
3. There is a strong technical support around $8.70-$8.80 area
4. $11.35 still obtainable by year end
5. The blue and red arrow provide 2 likely path for the next few days
RIG One of the Most Bearish StocksIf you want to short individual stocks look for the ones that are weak compared to the broader stock market.
RIG is an excellent example of a stock to short. It has underperformed the market for years. Its most recent rally up to 13.03 is just the most recent example of weakness as it failed to move above the prior high at 13.48 made in February.
Compare this to the SPX which has moved above its February high.
RIG is a great stock to short if it has another rally. Minimum downside target is 7.67 lower targets could be difficult to determine because the stock has never been lower than 7.67.
Mark
#RIG COULD MOVE UP QUICKLY UPON BREAKING $11Severely oversold. Extremely good payback when strength starts to show, which is long delayed. 75% ROI is not an over statement.
RIG bullish chartPrinted a maribozu right at trendline support and gapped up on earnings. After couple of days of digestion it faces immediate resistances from MA's congestion above. If it can clear 11.60 (above all MA) it can bode well for higher prices in coming months. A long can be initiated here or waiting on break of 11.60 with a stop below close under 10dma.
MACD is about to make a bullish cross and RSI is rising which is again bullish.
RIG- Short from 10.87 to 9.77RIG broke down from upward channel. We have EMA lines (5 & 9) cross down & declining money-flow. Crossing down MA 50 with strong volume suggesting strong downward momentum.
Our first target is 9.77
You can check our detailed analysis on RIG in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 3:10"
Trade Status: Trade is entered (Jul 28th) & running in small profit.
Rig Long ShortRig is getting ready to decide were it wants to go I will be looking to go long or short for a longer term swing trade.
RIG short then long .. then repeat. ride the price cyclenotes on chart... will follow oil price and be very volatile.
RIG goes higherI might be a little early here, but I like RIG and I'm BUYING. After a 78.6% retracement off the highs it looks promising. The RSI and %R are oversold and have acted as a good buy spot in the past. The company has positive net income so fundamentally pretty solid. Earnings are a way off so no near term shocks. The 15 min chart shows a double bottom, which usually gives a bounce if only near term . I like $8.97 as a buy point, very low side risk.
BOUGHT RIG APRIL 9/14 SHORT STRANGLE TO COVERCovering this at nearly 50% max profit for a .51 debit. I got in for a .93/contract credit, and am out for a .51 debit, so realized a profit of .42 ($42)/contract -- ridiculous for an $11 underlying .... .
SOLD RIG APRIL 15 9/14 SHORT STRANGLEHigh implied volatility rank plus high implied volatility equals good premium selling ... .
RIG April 15th 9/14 short strangle
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: .93/contract ($93/contract)
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break Evens: 8.07/14.93
Notes: Ridiculously good premium for such a low priced underlying.
RIG - May consolidate/channelRIG exploded past its anticipated resistance at 12, settling at 12.71. In fact its price and volume have been increasing massively each day for a week now.
I'm hesitantly expecting the price of this stock to increase further, but the timeframe is unclear. It's quite possible that we have a bit of a gap on monday, and it opens high. I do not expect the stock to exceed resistance at 14.45. The market is less risk averse than it has been - but large question marks remain for oil companies and a price surge above the levels seen over the summer would be unexpected at this point.
The price has move so high so fast that soon, possibly as soon as first thing monday (especially if the stock opens high) I would expect to see more and more investors taking profits and the price to drop back down.
The selloff should take the stock at least to its support at 12, and I expect it to trade and consolidate between 12 and 14.45 until more definitive news pushes it one way or the other. If the stock does perform as I expect and oscillates between those two levels for a few days buying at 12 could be a good position to take for a few days, taking profits ASAP with a mind to the ease with which the price could plummet. The same is true of a short position taken at 14.
Again, both strategies are predicated upon the stock establishing resistance at 14 and support at 12 and trading between them. Its entirely possible RIG explodes up above 14 again in a single trading day because of huge short covering, or that investors take their profit now in such a massive selloff that we drop below 12.
I trade risk-averse, and will not be jumping into this stock either way as things stand right now - especially since traders have had all weekend to mull things over.
RIG - TOO CHEAP FUNDAMENTALLY - FACE RIPPING SHORT SQUEEZE Monthly chart shows divergence in momentum and price , this will soon lead to no more sellers , because now the float is hostage. Any buying triggers a massive short covering , which should lead a stock price north of $25 dollars a share 3 - 6 months
Stock has been under masterful accumulation and will continue to be. This trade is almost identical to the playbook of buying CHK , SDRL , SUNE , FCX , HTZ
Enterprise value = $10 billion
Market cap = $4.6 billion
Revenue = $6.9 Billion
This stock looks like many energy companies , which were priced for bankruptcy. With improvement in the junk bond market, I feel accumulating this stock and others like it.
10-------------15----------20--25---30 Try accumulating between 10 and 13 and adding on a break of 15.
Rig BreakoutThis is taking a bit of a risk on the oil sector. However due to the breakout of RIG and the fact they have fallen so much I purchased the Jan 18 Leaps for a few dollars. you can see the Break Even lines. This is a potential runner, but being that the sector has been in a bear it is a speculation play...I will keep an eye on it. If however it starts to break down will look to exit the trade. I purchased enough time to be more like a stock surrogate
Oil drillers - way overdue for a huge bounce This is a time where all fundamentals about the oversupply of oil, glut, and worsening global economy should be ignored.
It is simply so oversold that it in the near term it will vastly outperform most other assets. There's simply a limit to how low it can get before it bottoms.
No, WTI (USOIL) isn't going to $20 in the near term yet. I do see a possibility of it testing $48~51 range again.
Seadrill Limited (SDRL)
Almost 20% away from the lows made in 2009.
Price have not recover the slightest bit despite oil price recovering recently. Near term target is $9.5 range.
Best of the 3 drillers and current price is a huge bargain here! I am accumulating this at current levels.
Transocean LTD (RIG)
Price recovered 27% from the recent lows.
Not much opportunity unless you're going to hold it for over a year, a recovery to $26 is almost entirely possible. I would wait for a retest of $12 to pick this up.
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO)
Keep a lookout for $17~19 level for longs. I don't see much demand in this relative to SDRL and RIG yet.
WTI price:
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Good luck :) and have a good trade.
