SE AnalysisPrice played out well to my analysis last week. Price is mitigating the bullish POI at 45.00, going deeper right now. I'm expecting price to consolidate around this range until Q3 earnings release.
SE trade ideas
SE AnalysisPrice consolidated last week while mitigating the bearish POI at 50.79. My expectations are unchanged, expecting price to go lower, further mitigating the bullish POI at 45.00
SE AnalysisPrice played out accordingly to my previous analysis. Price has mitigated an old bullish POI at 45.0o and reacted. Price is currently at the bearish POI at 50.79. I'm expecting price to continue lower following the bearish order flow.
SE short: a follow up (price target <$25)I've been calling for SE short since the very week that it made the peak.
My last 2 calls were for 1 short and 1 technical rebound. Well, the rebound did not invalidate the long-term SE short call.
I've also voiced my opinion that Shopee's cost cutting is a little too little, too late. As of now, nothing changes. But the cost to rectify gets heavier everyday for them. Previously I had said that a 30% pay cut across the board might be necessary, now, it's probably closer to 50%. But then, this is just my guesstimate. No fundamental analysis whatsoever.
With the impeding breakdown and crash of SE together with the general market, it seems evitable that more of the multi-millionaire and billionaires may no longer enjoy such fame much longer.
My previous price target of <$40 stays. But, I think now <$25 is maybe a more precise estimate.
SE ~ Lower Lows incoming? Buying Opp incoming?SE, Sea Limited has been suffering massive losses ever since its peak in the fall of 2021. This massive bull run was led with the Tech & Growth Stock boom that's bubble has recently bursted through out the current Bear Market of 2022!
Sea Limited owns multiple varieties of Business in the South-Eastern Asia Region. Businesses Like :
Shopee - Ecommerce Giant
Garena - Gaming + Esports
& Much more smaller companies
Sea Limited has grown a massive amount of revenue, but has most definitely struggled with its debt and spending to make a profit.
Nonetheless, let's get to Technicals!
SE has suffered such huge losses, many wonder where is the bottom!?
My thesis for this Stock is a short / mid term short position, followed by long term accumilation.
Short : SE has 2 major gaps to still be filled from back before COVID, and the gigantic Rally that took place on SE. I see huge potential for this company's future growth, but I think more downside is to come to give SE fair value.
Along with fair value, and these gaps SE has been unable to reclaim any weekly moving averages, and the TTM_SQUEEZE Momentum Indicator shows more bearish momentum coming.
The monthly chart will get to the point of being oversold, probably near these gap fills. At these gap fill areas, and the way down would be a proper time imo to be covering short positions.
The market also seems to have some more pain ahead, and interest rates will only hurt this company and the markets more, driving the stock down fundamentally.
Long : I do believe in this company's long term outlook and performance. I do think that this will take a while to turn around... But if these gaps get filled, the Risk/Reward on SE will be favorable if the company has only grown. I am going to be extremely patient on SE but will be ready to hunt the discount if these gaps do become filled. I Will also keep my eye on the TTM_Squeeze on the MONTHLY chart, as the Monthly chart has been getting extreme momentum to the bearish side, and will look extremely oversold in the coming months with more downside.
Thesis : Short to Gaps ; Long @ Gap Fills
SE AnalysisPrice played out exactly as analyzed last week. Free signal given with a final take profit at 62.19 was hit (+16.16% or +6.09RR), mitigating the bearish POI at 62.15 and price reacted strongly and fall from there. Next target for this down move is 53.85. If the bullish POI at 53.85 holds and breaks market structure to the upside again, then we have a confirmed spring for an up move. If the bullish POI is violated, we should see a continuation to the downside.
SE AnalysisPrice is playing out as analyzed last week. The signal I called is up 4.54% so far. It seems like the price is making a spring right now and if it is, we should see price going higher from here. If price breaks the market structure to the downside at 52.38 from here, we should see a continuation lower.
SE AnalysisPrice played out as analyzed last week. Right now, price took out the lows at 54.06. If price were to play out according to the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, this will be the formation of a spring to go higher once we have confirmation on the lower timeframe.
SE long: technical rebound It's just recently that I called for a short on SE. But now, it seems like there is finally some hope of at least a technical rebound.
SE: Short (target < $40)Recently job cuts were announced at Shopee and the “seniors” are not going to take pay. All expenses are going to be reduced until the company turns profitable enough to be self-sustaining. But this stock is still a short. Whatever costs cutting they’ve announced is still not aggressive enough and is only meant to pacify the market. Naively thinking that that could help.
In the first place, those “senior management” are most likely those whose compensation components are largely non-cash salary. Then, cutting flight from business to economy is not going to help that much if the airlines they chose are expensive. Like Emirates,SIA, etc. I certainly hope that they weren’t flying people all over the globe previously and thus thinking that such cost cutting is going to be effective.
What can really help? If they announce 30% pay cut across the board. They could have a chance of turning sustainable next year. How did I come out with this figure? Gut feel. Maybe it’s not even enough going by what I know about their offers and how they have been indiscriminately giving increments.
I foresee the stock price will fall before $40.
SE AnalysisPrice is playing out according to my last analysis. Price mitigated the bearish POI at 62.15 and moved lower. Right now, I'm expecting price to play according to the Wyckoff accumulation schematic to create a spring by potentially taking out the lows at 54.06.
SE AnalysisI was expecting price to take the lows at 54.06 and forming the spring to the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Price has currently broken minor structure to the upside, mitigating the bearish POI at 62.15. I'm expecting price to go lower according to my initial expectation.
SE analysisThis is a big picture macro observation. Not the 5-minute nor 4hr chart, day traders look elsewhere. Over the next 12 to 24 months the European single currency is going to outperform almost every other currency, USD included (see charts below).
SEBottom of current channel, decent risk reward for a former high flyer focused on the economic hub of Singapore.
I CAN SEA CLEARLY NOWSome sort of south east asian Amazon/Paypal/Tencent hybrid
Sounds good right?
Been obliterated
Looks like it's trying to bottom to me
Some targets as shown
GRI 2022
SE AnalysisPrice is playing out as my last analysis. Price is heading towards the lows at 54.06. Price looks like it's doing a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I'm expecting price to take out the lows at 54.06 to make a spring before initiating an uptrend.
SE AnalysisPrice is on a higher timeframe downtrend. Right now, price is in consolidation. Price recently took liquidity at 90.38 before breaking market structure to the downside. Liquidity has been taken from the sell-side, possible target is the lows at 54.06 before we head back up to the bearish POI at 82.07
RectangleIt appears earnings were not received well.
Sea press release (NYSE:SE): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$1.03 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $2.94B (+28.9% Y/Y) misses by $90M.
Short interest is around 6.65%.
Former Parabolic Arc that has fallen beyond the .786 of the impulse wave up.
ARCs consist of both panic buying on the way up and panic selling on the way down. Prices move up almost vertically until it reverses. The steep, vertical move up is not sustainable long term but can be very profitable on the way up. This pattern is often seen more clearly on the weekly timeframe.
Parabolic Arcs are a pattern of hysteria and on average will pull back between the .618 and the .786 level of the impulse wave up. The 50% level is often the first target to the downside.
No recommendation.
ARCs are a reflection of human psychology to the max degree. Folks are dying to get in. Then they are dying to get out )o:
Resistance in channelSE broke above some resistance levels on the log scale; however, still resides within a longer parallel channel on a regular scale.
Expect a short term rejection at the upper channel at ~90, which coincides with resistance within a symmetric wedge on the log scale.
Longer term SE can go either way, but would be very bullish if either upper channel (regular & log) are broken.
Targeting another drop to 65-70 level in the short term, followed by a long term increase.
$SE 1D BUY SETUP FOR +70% MOVE!Sea Limited is good stock if you are thinking about adding a digital gaming, software and cloud communication/network stock to your watchlist/portfolio. It is currently showing a possible sign of retracing to$120 area, but I think it will report good earnings and have a positive move up from the news. It is also coming out of a contraction which always means a big move is coming!
SESE earning thios week, Algo looks positive hoping for good bought leaps on this monster ... Manage your own R/R
SE ShortIn big downtrend, bounce back to resistance
3rd touch down trendline
Up trend line break
Earning 8/23/2022 Estimate -1.23
Short 79
Stop 92
Target 57, 38
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
