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SHOP trade ideas

SHOP 1D BULLISH FLAG LONG TRADEBull Flags are a Range type pattern. Bull Flag Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns. Descending Bull Flag chart patterns will have a directional bias (Long Trade) depending on the previous incoming trend. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of volume average for a full position size. b - If 75% of volume average then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) If not 75% then stand aside from the trade. 2 – If candle breaks out of a trendline, 15m before the close of the day prepare your buy/sell order. Enter two trades. 1st trade will have a SL & TP. It will close automatically when the 1st TP is hit. 2nd trade only has a SL and will be allowed to run. When 1st TP is hit move the SL to breakeven. Look at ATR and prepare SL at 1.5 of ATR. Prepare 1st trade TP at 1 of ATR. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade don't wait for SL to be hit. *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Tradingstrategyguides
SHOP, enters Uptrend as Momentum ascends above 0 level on Nov 23This indicator may be signaling that SHOP's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price exceeds the price logged 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor backtested 68 similar cases where SHOP's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, and 63 of them led to a successful outcome. Odds of Success: 90%. Current price $965.00 crossed the resistance line at $949.78 and is trading between $1021.62 support and $949.78 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 10/22/20 - 11/23/20, the price experienced a -3% Downtrend, while the week of 11/16/20 - 11/23/20 shows a +7% Uptrend. Bullish Trend Analysis The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP just turned positive on November 20, 2020. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise Tickeron A.I. detected that in 47 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%. Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 331 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%. SHOP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by AlTorress
Trade Update: Move stop to breakevenIngenuity Trading Model- Swing Trading Algorithm used in all markets- stocks, forex, futures, and crypto The model is a Geometric Markov Model : In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions. Our model focuses on the current wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For more information visit our website and check out our previous signals
NYSE:SHOP
by IngenuityTrading
SHOP Is Becoming Unstable - Minervini DissectionThose of you who have been following me for a while now know that one of, if not my absolute favorite piece of trading literature is "How To Trade Like A Stock Market Wizard" by Mark Minervini. The book is an incredible tool for finding super-performing stocks, dissecting them, and understanding how the most common stock models used by institutions are structurally deficient at pricing them accurately. I thought I would take the opportunity today to dissect one of the most prominent superperformers of the last two years - SHOP (Shopify), and explain why this stock is headed for lower prices in the coming year(s). If you're unfamiliar with the book, essentially Mark argues that there are a select number of extremely high growth stocks that, when targeted and traded properly, can yield unmatched returns. Here is a bit about his process: Traits of Superperformers 90% of superperformance stocks began their phenomenal price surges as the general market came out of a correction or bear market - In the case of SHOP, the huge slowdown in early 2016. Superperformance phase occurs during the first 10 years after the stock’s IPO. Stock is a small-cap or mid-cap that hits a period of accelerated growth. Stock has a relatively small total market cap and amount of shares outstanding - Yup! Low float count and relatively unknown name back in 2017. Majority had periods of outperformance in terms of fundamentals as well as technical action before they made their biggest gains. Many traded at more than 30 or 40x earnings before they experienced their largest advance - Can't buy a Ferrari for the price of a Kia. Key to Making Big Money in Stocks The key to making big money in stocks is to align supporting fundamentals with constructive price action during a healthy overall market environment - 2017 as healthy as it gets. You want all the forces behind you: fundamental, technical, and market tone. What matters is what big institutions think, because they are the ones that can move a stock’s price dramatically. Therefore, it’s your job to find the companies that institutions perceive as valuable - hard to model growth in standard DFC / DDM / CAPM modeling, assuming growth rates and periods is pure guesswork and beats = massive outperformance. Fundamentals Drive the Stages of Stock Price Movement From a fundamental perspective, the cause almost always was linked to earnings: from lackluster performance to upside surprise and accelerating growth, eventually followed by decelerating growth and then disappointment. These underlying fundamental changes drive big institutional players into and out of stocks. Five Key Elements Trend: Price in definite uptrend Fundamentals: Improvement in earnings, revenues, margins Catalyst: Hot-selling product, approval by FDA, new CEO, new contract, etc. Entry Points: Enter at a low-risk entry point Exit Points: Establish stop loss points. Pass the Trend Template filter Filtered by earnings, sales, margin growth, relative strength, and price volatility Scrutinize for similarities to a Leadership Profile to determine whether they are in line with fundamental and technical factors exhibited by past superperformers. Manual review, considering Reported earnings and sales Earnings and sales surprise history EPS growth and acceleration Revenue growth and acceleration Company-issued guidance Revision of analysts’ earnings estimates Profit margins When looking at stocks in this light, it's easy to see how everything came together for SHOP, an incredibly high growth, young, market leader with good margins and price action. All it required was the ignition from stage 1 - where the groundwork is laid - to stage 2 - where the stock goes parabolic. What we have now is a great example of a superperformer stock that's finally made it into stage 3, the distribution phase, where expectations for continued gains in fundamentals diminish, and the stock gets rapidly re-priced to reflect that - almost always resulting in a price correction. Another way to think about it is buying the hype cycle early and selling at the peak before it finally comes back to reality, which can take some time. Right now, we are finally distributing without new and convincing highs - the end is neigh. I really like how SHOP fits the superperformer mold to the T, looking extremely similar to all of the charts in the book. Well worth a read, and stay clear of buying SHOP at these prices!! Cheers
NYSE:SHOPShort
by PropNotes
22