SMG trade ideas
How I am allocating my weed stock portfolio - SMG and MDCLSome quick commentary on which Marijuana stocks I am bullish on and which ones I am avoiding.
SMG low risk entryWant a MJ play that's not a MJ direct stock. Buy SMG here, low risk. set your stop at $102. I don't have a buy signal yet, just betting on past performance. + dividends
$SMG Add Miracle Grow to your investments.======UPSIDE TARGET $140======
MASSIVE BREAKOUT IN PLAY, SLIGHT BACKTEST POSSIBLE.
LONG AND STRONG.
Closing Bull Call Vertical SMG, Nearly Max ProfitWe are closing out our 90/95 bull call spread, earning a debit of 4.99 by selling the 90 Cs and buying back the 95 Cs. We have made a profit of 49.7/contract, with a maximum potential profit of 50. The potential possible gains of holding the position are nearly negligible, so we are taking the successful trade and closing it out now, to best preserve strong risk/reward characteristics.
Below, we've attached our methodology for why we took the position initially. We sat the vertical below the market, essentially betting on the market staying above a place it already was very far above. This is one of our favorite strats, and has proven profitable often, despite the natural consequence of having to risk an amount significantly larger than the potential reward.
-- Jan 20, '19 --
" We are bullish on both the technicals and fundamentals of SMG . The multinational corporation, known for its consumer fertilizers and pesticides and new expansion into hydroponic equipment for the marijuana industry, has been trading in an up-channel. 2019 Q2 earnings beat estimates, with EPS of $3.64 (.22 above forecasts) and a top line of $1.19 billion (greater than the estimated $1.16 billion). The biggest growth opportunity is in its Scotts' Hawthorne subsidiary, which provides various products (hydroponics, fertilizers and lighting systems) to the cannabis industry. "
Miracle Gro has reasons to-- well-- grow!Normally I'd be suspicious of an uptrend as long-term as the one that SMG has been in, but back on June 5 it revised its guidance upward, which should help sustain the uptrend. I expect a breakout above resistance sometime soon.
SMG 90/95 bull call spread With the July contracts, a 90/95 bull call spread can be placed for a debit of 3.97. This places our break-even at 93.97 on the July 20th expiry. The max profit of $102 per contract occurs above the upper strike of the sold call at 95.
We are bullish on both the technicals and fundamentals of SMG. The multinational corporation, known for its consumer fertilizers and pesticides and new expansion into hydroponic equipment for the marijuana industry, has been trading in an up-channel. 2019 Q2 earnings beat estimates, with EPS of $3.64 (.22 above forecasts) and a top line of $1.19 billion (greater than the estimated $1.16 billion). The biggest growth opportunity is in its Scotts' Hawthorne subsidiary, which provides various products (hydroponics, fertilizers and lighting systems) to the cannabis industry.
Inversed Head and Shoulders On Scott's Miracle Grow WeeklyThis looks like a good summer trade, with a textbook target around 105.00 due to the pattern I picked up; but some analyst's are placing it a little lower at around 95.00 from TA signals alone. See the following from Stockinvest.US :
"Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) lies in the middle of a weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 9.26% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $86.63 and $94.86 at the end of this period."
I don't think we could ask for a better entry because we are just above support which is 83.44, and we just confirmed the pattern with a breakout above the neck/shoulder line. This is a low volatility stock, so a long term trade shouldn't be too nerve racking; the trend should be rather slow and steady and relative risk is currently seen as low among industry professionals. At 90% probability I see this one as a gift.
This is not financial advice, and good luck on your trades.
SMG: Super seasonal and this year should be good yearOnce this hits 82.45ish (which can happen in 1-2 trading days), this will be off to races. Prices marked. I am bullish and opened few calls yesterday.
gl fellas
$SMG SCOTTS MIRACLE GRO, SAFE CANNABISScotts miracle gro is a very safe means of joining the Cannabis revolution through supply of manufacturing products for the growth of the cannabis plant. SMG has had a forgettable 6 months but in our opinion the correction has finished and its now safe to enter into a impulse move up. All indicators have turned positive and we have price alert set for a break above $84 to enter a long position.
$SMG - I might be reaching here, butAn eerie reminder of how wrong I was about $TSLA back before the surge. Nonetheless, I've come to find more than a few tickers that get (seemingly) stuck in a strong down-trend. I had $CHKP on watch a little over a week ago once I saw the crab-legged type breakout over the 180WMA after being in the choppy, downward trend it's been since last year. Nonetheless, I've come to find a handful more of tickers that resembled the same pattern with/without a few slight differences $TSLA had before its breakout. Few examples ($DTE, $EQIX, $CHKP) - I used $CHKP as a comparison because essentially, I look for a pretty big gap down below 3yr WMA for the start of a setup (like $TSLA) - but beggars can't be choosers. Argued with myself to post the $MMM chart with the potential to show same type of breakout, but, how about we say I did & just keep it on watch (Earnings 07/24).
SMG - WeeklyPrice action is coming out of a downward wedge. It seems like it is in a bottoming process.
SMG Short following break down from channelSMG has recently broken down from monthly trendlines. We will wait for it to recover to volume node and then enter a short position, risking off the 78% fib retracement, which is unlikely to occur. Do not enter position until signs of weakness or target is reached.
Dow drops once again #24 (SMG)Technical Concept: Support broken becomes Resistance (Red Arrows= Resistance) (Blue Arrows= Support)
I not use sophisticated Technical jargon in an attempt to persuade and impress the reader because I not a Charlatan
I do not use fancy Charts plenty of Indicators, Oscillators, and other stuff, all in a stock chart in an attempt to impress
the reader with my knowledge because I not a Tutor or Mentor.
I am not either a Business man, Engineer, Doctor, Inventor or Innovator; this requires different skills and personalities
Who I am?
I am End of Day Analyst and Stock Picker, I support myself in Charts, but I not self-proclaimed Technical Analyst Expert
I do not fall into the mistake of comparing and affirm that Technical Analysis is better than Fundamental Analysis .
I am a person without Higher education, and not have math skills.
I am a right brain oriented person and I focus in my strengths, for this reason I use Charts and I no try to become a Quantitative Trader, since it is a lost cause, in my case.
I use a simple method based in Support and Resistance , accompanied with moving averages, and I do a Top down Analysis with multiple time frames
My first view of a Stock is a 10 year Weekly Chart, Then I do a zoom in and I focus in the action of the last 2 or 4 Years, I look my Daily Chart and 4-Hrs Chart too
What I do?
I pick Stocks manually I watch one by one without the use of a Stock Screener
I follow approximately 1300 to 1400 Stocks , distributed in 10 industries, with different market cap
I do not follow Penny Stocks and Over-The-Counter stocks
I not follow Stocks with an Avg_Volume bellow 100,000 with (Low Liquidity)
I dedicated 10 lonely years of deliberate practice and in this process, I eliminated all kind of thoughts.
I open and reset a lot of Demo Accounts for this purpose
I tried and practice with different Markets (Forex, Options and Stocks) with different Time Frames (Intraday, Scalping, Swing/Position).
I tried Mechanical Trading too, But definitely I am Discretionary Analyst or Qualitative, It took me years to know it, and a lot of books.
I've learned by myself, but I do not think I'm smarter than the others, “Ego is a sin”
I understand the concept of Short Selling and spend hours searching this kind of patterns including the weekends.
What I can do for you?
I can put ideas in the desk of Professional Traders, the ideas are based in Price Patterns + Price Action,
and they can trade with your own system or set up
My ideas are not influenced by the media or my neighbors,
I have no preference for a particular industry I follow 10 Industries even Public Utilities
I only focus in Price Patterns + Price Action
This was my Resume and Cover letter
Sincerely
Alex_Quiroga
Bigger Breakout ahead?Trading above 99$ should initiate up-momentum and cause a dynamic Breakout. Imo we don`t will cross this resistance with the first attempt, because the RSI is already hot. TP could be 116
SMG Break Above $100 next?I've been long a few weeks already but looking to add on more if it can hold above $100. Like this as a (tangential) pot legalization play as well.
Playing this as a breakout, but if you squint your eyes, kind of looks like an inverted head & shoulders pattern.
2% dividend / 25x earnings. Not super cheap, but nice growth, margins, ROE, etc. As I said, I'm long...
