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SPCE trade ideas

SPCE - An Excellent Long Term Investment OpportunityTechnical Analysis SPCE is starting to show some bullishness and strength here. I think SPCE will continue trending up, and my key price targets are $2.15 and $2.33 on this move up. A lot of stocks have experienced huge gains after earnings, if SPCE has a similar situation I can see a move up to the $3.07 to $3.47 resistance zone. I wouldn’t count on it, but that is the type of market that we are in right now. Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPCE) has made significant strides in the commercial spaceflight domain, as evidenced by its 2023 financial results and operational achievements. With a notable increase in revenue and efforts to reduce losses, Virgin Galactic stands at a pivotal juncture in its quest for profitability and sustainable growth in the burgeoning space tourism sector. This blog provides a comprehensive analysis of SPCE’s financial performance, highlighting the company’s strengths and weaknesses as it navigates the complexities of the aerospace industry. Financial Performance Highlights Revenue Growth In 2023, Virgin Galactic saw its annual revenue increase to $7 million, up from $2 million in 2022. This growth is primarily attributed to the commencement of commercial spaceflights and membership fees from future astronauts, signaling the company’s entry into operational commercialization. Net Loss Improvement The company’s net loss showed a marginal improvement, narrowing to $502 million in 2023 from $500 million in 2022. This slight reduction in net loss reflects Virgin Galactic’s ongoing efforts to streamline operations and manage costs effectively. Operating Expenses And Adjusted EBITDA Virgin Galactic succeeded in decreasing its GAAP total operating expenses to $538 million in 2023 from $502 million in 2022, demonstrating a focus on operational efficiency. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA improved slightly to $(427) million in 2023 from $(431) million in 2022, indicating a cautious optimization of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Strong Cash Position A pivotal strength for Virgin Galactic is its robust cash position, with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $982 million as of December 31, 2023. This financial cushion is essential for the company’s sustainability and future growth ambitions. Strengths Virgin Galactic’s progress in 2023 underscores its capability to increase revenue streams through its innovative space tourism services. The successful conduct of six human spaceflights within six months is a testament to the company’s operational excellence and commitment to delivering exceptional experiences to its customers. Moreover, the strong cash position enables Virgin Galactic to continue investing in research, development, and expansion, positioning it for long-term success in the space industry. Weaknesses Despite the positive developments, Virgin Galactic faces several challenges. The net cash used in operating activities and negative free cash flow highlight the capital-intensive nature of the aerospace industry and the significant investments required to maintain competitive edge and innovation. Furthermore, the marginal improvement in net loss and adjusted EBITDA suggests that while the company is moving in the right direction, achieving profitability remains a challenging endeavor that requires strategic focus and operational efficiency. Future Outlook Looking ahead, Virgin Galactic is focusing on the completion of its spaceship factory and the assembly of the initial Delta ships, with commercial service expected to commence in 2026. This forward-looking approach is crucial as the company aims to scale its operations and meet the growing demand for commercial space travel. Conclusion Virgin Galactic’s 2023 financial results reflect a company at the cusp of significant growth, armed with the strengths of increased revenue, operational achievements, and a solid cash position. However, the path to profitability is fraught with challenges, including managing high operational costs and achieving financial efficiency. As Virgin Galactic continues to pioneer the space tourism sector, its ability to navigate these challenges while capitalizing on its strengths will be key to its long-term success and profitability.
NYSE:SPCELong
by realchartchamp
1
Virgin Galactic New All Time Lows & Price Decline TargetsHi Guys! This is a Technical Analysis on Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) on the 3 Day Timeframe. We have been on a continual PRICE DECLINE since our MAJOR REJECTION, June 22, 2023. Its depicted by the Massive ENGULFING BEAR Candle. This area was also a Major RESISTANCE area with convergence of the RED and PURPLE lines. Note that Previous times we've had touch points on the PURPLE Upper Trendline of the Channel we've had massive PRICE DECLINES. 1st one = 53% 2nd one = 60% 3rd one = 54% At the time of my previous posted Idea, we had closed below the BLACK SUPPORT trendline. But i mentioned we needed "Confirmation". Well its absolutely CONFIRMED, and thus continual price decline. (Check out my previous idea on SPCE BELOW for more context.) We have also reached 2 of our 3 TARGETS mentioned on my previous idea, with continual BEARISH momentum therefore the update. We are Currently in the process of printing a New Lower Low for SPCE, with the break of our MAJOR SUPPORT RED Dashed line. Note also: Since this is a 3 day chart, we close the candle on the 17th of August. We also would need atleast 1 more candle after that if not more, that confirms the BREAK of SUPPORT. With our current momentum i believe we may have further DECLINE. 1st Target = BLUE Support Trendline 2nd Target = PURPLE Lower Support Trendline of Channel For Awareness -> It is possible we bounce from the BLUE line, a potential retracement being the BLACK trendline we initially broke out of. Keep an eye for Confirmation of Support. But I still do think its PROBABLE we touch the PURPLE Channel as our Final Target, and potential BOTTOM. Whether right away or after the bounce play mentioned above, hard to tell currently. I like this area because it would Strengthen the BULLISH DIVERGENCE currently forming. (Provided the signs of BULLISH DIvergence remain in our indicators). I see this as a necessary capitulatory move, flushing out weak hands and setting out a Bottom Base. At the end of each PRICE DECLINE, when we interact with the PURPLE Lower Trendline of the Channel. It leads to a significant bounce back up to the Upper Trendline of Channel. I won't highlight the % gains. I want you to Measure them for yourself but there MASSIVE gains. Keep that in mind. On the RSI, we've been REJECTED. Now we are moving towards the lower Support line that coincides with the BULLISH DIVERGENCE Play. We need to maintain SUPPORT here. Furthermore, for our BULLISH DIVERGENCE to play out we need to BREAK ABOVE Rejection zone. STOCH RSI is currently Below the 20 level. We don't want to be here for too long. We need to see a BULLISH cross above the 20 level. It moving towards the direction of the 80 level. The BULLISH cross should occur after touching one of the 2 TARGETS. Just keep in mind, if we are going to go to the PURPLE line, we may be staying down here for weeks to couple months. Keep an eye Notice also our VOLUME -> Our volume has been picking up since RJECTION. Which validates this Downtrend. Was giving us some hints before New Lows. Just food for thought: As a trader always have your options open and be flexible. We do not have crystal balls of what price will do. Being unpredictable, markets do what they want based on human psychology so never fixate on one target. Keep an open mind to different possibilities. __________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again. ***Read my Previous Analysis BELOW From 08/06/23 For More Context! Stay tuned for more updates on SPCEin the near future. If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
NYSE:SPCEShort
by SafofAllTrades
13
My Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Exit StrategyMy SPCE trade has been going horribly wrong to say the least, but I’m still optimistic about exiting near breakeven or profit. I was bullish for SPCE’s August launch, which marked a key milestone for Virgin Galactic since they finally delivered on their long-term promise to send customers on a unique space flight. August turned out to be a bearish month for the stock market with a 3-week correction, which sent SPCE below the buy zone. I was okay with being in a temporary loss, but SPCE continued to bleed week after week as I continued to wait for an uptrend to exit. Yellow Trendline This yellow trend line is a key trendline that SPCE has been following on this move down. SPCE had a breakout above this yellow trendline at $2.50 (marked by the white circle) However, SPCE’s breakout flopped and SPCE drop back down to retest the yellow trendline as support at $1.85 (marked by the green arrow) Exit Plan As traders and investors we have to live by our trading decisions. I chose to DCA down to $2.75 instead of putting a stop loss or manually exiting the trade. SPCE has dropped even further, which resulted in a steep loss. I placed one last buy order at $1.90 and I will patiently wait for the next uptrend As marked by the white arrows, SPCE has downswings and upswings. SPCE’s recent downswing has lasted for 6 weeks, and I believe that there will be some upside sooner rather than later. Key Price Targets - The first price target is the buy zone between $3 and $3.50, which is likely to act as an area of resistance on the way up. - My other two key price targets above the buy zone are $4.43 and $5.71. Technical Analysis Technical analysis tools are providing several bullish signals for SPCE at $1.90. The RSI is oversold on the 1-day time frame and trending up SPCE formed a bullish bounce off the yellow support line SPCE dropped below the lower range of the Bollinger Band ($2.10), which signifies a discounted buy opportunity on this drop. The lower range of the EMA ribbon is sitting around $3.33 on the weekly time frame, which is ideal for opening a long at current price levels.
NYSE:SPCELong
by realchartchamp
2
SPCE - Flight pathAre we at the bottom or is there more downside to come ? currently sitting at $3.24 which is very near the all-time low of $3 This level has acted as a horizontaol support several times a decending curved support line appears to be levelling out. The daily RSI is in the oversold mark which has historically acted as a catalyst for an uptick For the past year the price has dropped in waves by around 25% then gone up - could that repeat Possible outcomes: A: Ready for Lauch we see some positive news come out that shows a clear(er) path to profit and we have a new impulse taking us up to $11 over the space of a year B: Landing Gear Out The downward pressure and burn rate is still too much for people to stand and the price continues to decline and ranges between $2-3 for a while. Personally keen for a swing trade on this.
NYSE:SPCE
by dsypher
1
Virgin Galactic In the process of Bottoming out? Hi, this is a Technical Analysis on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), it is viewed on the 1 Week timeframe. Our current candle is currently in the process of breaking out BELOW our UPSloping Support Trend Line, highlighted by the RED circle. Note: The candle closes, end of trading session on 7th of August, Monday. Meaning our current candle is not accurate, so we need keep a close eye. If we close ABOVE, our trend continues, giving us yet another week to tread along and hopefully break our ressistance trend lines. Our RESISTANCE is 2 FOLD 1. Upper Resistance line of DOWNWARD CHANNEL 2. RED HORIZONTAL LINE above us If we close BELOW, it means we are attempting a "Trend Change", but this candle alone is not enough, We would need to look for CONFIRMATION. This can be way of a specific single candle printing or a candle pattern formation. (I will be sure to update in the coming weeks). Our 1st Target would be the BLACK Horizontal Support line below Our 2nd Target, which is also a CRITICAL ZONE is our STOCK LOW @ around $3.11, depicted by RED LINE ->Below this, we form a lower low and make NEW LOWS Our 3rd level would be where Lower BLACK line of the DOWNWARD channel and PRICE meet, below the RED Horizontal line. Our overall DIRECTION currently, is DOWN. Evident by the DOWNWARD CHANNEL drawn with BLACK lines. **Until PROVEN OTHERWISE**. -> For us to break the downtrend, we need to break and CONFIRM ABOVE the upper trend line of DOWNWARD CHANNEL. So when im looking at the current candle, im thinking its MORE PROBABLE we go down. Notice how the Week of June 12th and June 20th, we had Large Upper Wicks form, this indicates SELLING PRESURE. The pressure was due to convergence of resistance of the BLACK and RED Resistance lines. The pressure from this event, can be whats pushing our price down. My thought process is that i actually want PRICE to hit the LOWER SUPPORT LINE of the CHANNEL. Doing so, as long as the RSI maintains Higher Lows will lead to the formation of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE. This leads to prices MOVING to the UPSIDE, in most cases. Can be a BOTTOMING pattern, in my opinion. Now lets look to my indicators for more evidence. RSI is getting tight in this symmetrical triangle pattern. We will soon see a breakout ABOVE or BELOW. If we break BELOW, look to the RED line, we want to stay above here for the possibility of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE to be in the picture. ALso note: Symmetrical triangles usually break out to the upside. ORANGE RSI line, should also stay ABOVE the Black moving average. Look left, everytime we CONFIRM below, PRICE DROPS DOWN. STOCH RSI, is in the process of a BEARISH CROSS, this if confirmed on Monday will bring in momentum to push prices DOWN. ADX which is also a momentum indicator, I would like to see the BLACK moving average, curve up, GREEN Line also curve up breaking out of the upper border of rectangle. This would indicate to me that a large amount of bullish momentum is coming in. CONCLUSION: Overall, i believe SPCE is in the process of carving out a BOTTOM. Its evident by the range highlighted by rectangle, we are in some sort of CONSOLIDATION. Our current price action must be observed. In the chance we do CONFIRM below and go lower in price, it will provide great entry levels for BUY ORDERS. If we also hit the lower support trend line of the down channel, the potential for a BULLISH DIVERGENCE may become more probable. With all the evidence being presented, it is important to observe SPCE to see what it does in the coming Weeks to Months. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again. If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
NYSE:SPCE
by SafofAllTrades
7
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) - Q2 Interest - Potential Accumulation 📊 Fundamental Analysis: Virgin Galactic has been gaining attention in the market due to a positive Q2 performance. The company's strong quarterly results have sparked interest among investors, potentially indicating positive growth prospects ahead. 📈 Technical Analysis: The chart above illustrates a potential Wyckoff accumulation phase for SPCE. The price action appears to be forming a classic Wyckoff pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. We've seen a series of higher lows forming over time, indicating increasing buying interest. 🔄 Anticipating the Spring Phase: The final confirmation for the Wyckoff accumulation pattern often comes with the "Spring" phase, which involves a liquidity grab at the bottom. In this case, we're watching for a potential dip to the 0.272 Fibonacci level around $2.36. This could act as the liquidity grab, setting the stage for a potential bullish move. 📈 Bullish Confirmation: To confirm the bullish scenario, we're looking for a higher high (an outbreak) in the price action, potentially around the $8 to $10 range. This breakout would validate the accumulation phase and signal a potential trend reversal. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: Support: 0.272 Fibonacci at $2.36 Breakout Confirmation: $8 to $10 range Let's discuss in the comments below! What are your thoughts on SPCE's potential accumulation phase and breakout scenario? Share your insights!
NYSE:SPCELong
by Soldi75
SPCE Swing Long For Aug 10 Space Launch This SPCE long trade is centered around the second commercial space launch on Aug 10. SPCE had a successful first launch in June of 2023, and there is optimism that this launch will also go well. Initially my plan was to buy in the buy zone between $3 and $3.50, but SPCE was struggling to drop lower. I readjusted my range to $3.68 to $3.72. These target prices are time sensitive because there could be a drop near the Aug 10 launch date. Last time there was a long 3 day candle up and I’m looking for a similar scenario here. Target Price TP 1 The red resistance line is my first price target at $5.75 TP 2 The white resistance line is my second price target at an estimated price of $6. The price could overshoot with a successful launch or strong earnings report.
NYSE:SPCELong
by realchartchamp