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Virgin Galactic Friday, 15 October 2021 19:27 PM (WIB) Virgin Galactic is getting near to the base ground support lines. It was suddenly fall deep from $24 into $18.50. At the moment the price bounce up to $20. I need to focus on Virgin Galactic now for finding the best spot to enter the market. Stochastic + RSI shows the downtrend is very low. But it's still possible to touch the ground support when Stochastic Lines hit below 0. Best regards, RyodaBrainless "Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
NYSE:SPCE
by RyodaBrainless
2
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading. Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same. They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side! I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share! I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me! RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share! I experienced the same situation over and over again: NASDAQ:WKHS NASDAQ:TLRY NYSE:SPCE Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more: Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as: 1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing, 2-The phase transition turning point, and 3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions. I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well: Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge." We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. The Dunning-Kruger effect The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities. A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert. Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do. Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Keep learning and practicing Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper. Ask other people how you're doing Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism. Question what you know Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias. Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again. Conclusion: you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience. Best, Moshkelgosha Reference Articles: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov psycnet.apa.org www.britannica.com www.verywellmind.com www.psychologytoday.com
NYSE:SPCEEducation
by Moshkelgosha
4
SPCE Falling Wedge ScenarioSPCE is currently in a falling wedge pattern that can best be seen on the 1HR chart. This is still a bearish development showing lower highs and lower lows, but a breakout above the wedge could signal a +/- 20% move to near $28. From my experience, falling wedges typically break to the bottom for a final sell off (capitulation) before they break upward. That is not always the case, and these are very hard to trade as stop losses have to be moved lower and lower. As long as the price is best contained in the falling wedge, the trade is in play presenting a worsening risk:reward for longs. The best way to trade this would be to wait for a break above the top line of the wedge and then enter when the price comes back down to the top of the wedge (retest). This can be difficult as well as the price may retest the top of the wedge a few times before finally deciding to go up, so again it's another difficult scenario for a stop loss as the top of the wedge lowers as time goes by. Place see my related SPCE ideas.
NYSE:SPCELong
by ttrending
Virgin Galactic.Continuation.Correction according to new data. Virgin Galactic. My thoughts about the company, industry. A high-risk asset. The desire to acquire a part of the company appears only if the profit from the asset is not less than the profit with the same risk from other assets that we can acquire. If the risk is greater -> premium risk is paid -> bigger estimated profit. The risk of the company consists of systematic (the risk of the economy as a whole) and diversifiable risk. It is believed that diversifiable risk is fully diversified (disappears when the company is added to a portfolio) -> Risk premium is paid only for systemic risk. In this case, since there are no similar companies, diversification is relative. -> More risk and potential profit (due to the presence of unsystematic risk.). The systematic risk, in this case, is also relative because there is little that can greatly change the situation in this industry (unless, of course, you expect a new great depression). In general, I wanted to tell you that this asset, in my opinion, is less dependent on the economy as a whole than other assets(the risk premium is smaller), but here we are paid for our unsystematic risk. (balance in the universe)( This is a feature of this asset, in my opinion.)(And I like this feature because something strange is happening in the economy right now.) In my opinion, nothing good should happen in the near future. (Many different factors can lead to a drop of 20%, as well as their absence since the value of the company is determined by its payments, which are less and less over time (the time value of money), then there is no information about the next payments, we postpone them -> it reduces the value of the company. The growth of oil can become this factor (do not forget about other conglomerate companies)). Disclaimer/ On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up. The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.
NYSE:SPCE
by loco_mango
3
SPCE: Playing the volatility!Space is a volatility game. You buy options when it's all nice and quiet and sell them to profit from increased IV. Another strategy is to buy shares at these prices and sell options at the top. Either way you play this stock, you will need volatility to profit from your options swing trades. On this chart, you can see SPCE sitting right above a major support forming a tight consolidations, which has been going on for weeks now. MACD shows different periods of consolidations in the past and the volatility that followed. There is also a gap to be filled at 31. There are a couple of upcoming catalyzers: 1. FAA re-approval 2- October flight. No matter which way it goes, the volatility is about to go up very soon. Historically, SPCE has gone up after these tight consolidations. But is it going to hit 53 or would max out at 35, that depends on the hype behind the next flight. Another possibility is 73!
NYSE:SPCELong
by MarkitMaven
10
Virgin Galactic AnalysisI’ve uploaded a previous idea but I can’t figure out how to edit or remove it, so I’m uploading a revised version. Virgin Galactic has a history of large price spikes leading up to significant flights. In February, anticipation for the SpaceShipTwo test flight corresponded to a 170% increase in price from January lows. This price action was preceded by a bullish break above Ichimoku Conversion and Base lines, a golden cross on the MACD, and a significant bollinger_band compression (all on the 10 timeframe). In July, anticipation for Richard Branson's flight corresponded to a 300% increase from May lows. This price action was preceded by similar bullish breaks as the February run up. The upcoming Unity 23 flight was unfortunately delayed, pushed from late September - early October to around mid October due to possible component issues and an FAA inquiry. However, should these issues be cleared up, we may expect a massive run to begin soon leading up to the mid October flight. We have solid support at $24, but the current price region of $25 is an adequate region to start accumulating. Below this, we have a gap fill at $21 and at $17. If you're waiting for a clear bullish signal, you can wait for news about SPCE's next flight to come out. I expect a massive spike whenever Virgin Galactic clears up their component investigation or the FAA situation. Good news like this can easily deafen the overall market trend, sending this stock into space. Other notable examples of recent stocks that have defied the S&P 500 pullback include UBER and LCID. So far, SPCE managed to break above several down trends (originating from the July peak). The bollinger bands are in a relatively compressed state, suggesting movement in the near future. Bullish indicators include a golden cross on the MACD and a break above the blue ichimoku conversion line. Stochastics are heading up to the overbought region while the RSI is near neutral, angling itself upward. Price target at around the $30 gap fill. If we break past this, then $50, in accordance with the resistance trend line formed by the previous two peaks in February and July.
NYSE:SPCELong
by Sleesc2
Virgin Galactic and CatalystsVirgin Galactic has a history of large price spikes leading up to significant flights. In February, anticipation for the SpaceShipTwo test flight corresponded to a 170% increase in price from January lows. This price action was preceded by a bullish break above Ichimoku Conversion and Base lines, a golden cross on the MACD, and a significant bollinger band compression (all on the 1D timeframe). In July, anticipation for Richard Branson’s flight corresponded to a 300% increase from May lows. This price action was preceded by similar bullish breaks as the February run up. The upcoming Unity 23 flight was unfortunately delayed, pushed from late September - early October to around mid October due to possible component issues and an FAA inquiry. However, should these issues be cleared up, we may expect a massive run to begin soon leading up to the mid October flight. We have solid support at $24, but the current price region of $25 is an adequate region to start accumulating. If you’re waiting for a clear bullish signal, you can wait for news about SPCE’s next flight to come out. I expect a massive spike whenever Virgin Galactic clears up their component investigation or the FAA situation. Good news like this can easily deafen the overall market trend, sending this stock into space. Other notable examples of recent stocks that have defied the S&P 500 pullback include UBER and LCID. Price target at around $50, in accordance with the resistance trend line formed by the previous two peaks in February and July.
NYSE:SPCELong
by Sleesc2
Space Been posting about SPCE for a while. Calling for this 24$ area holding as support. As it’s long term support line that broke one and dropped us to 16$ however I didn’t feel we would break this time. Throughout all this correction the market is currently undergoing… we still are holding it. We actually had a breakout of this potential falling wedge and a backtest. This would mean when this correction is over spce should see some decent upside. I’ve been looking for 35$ at least here for months. We still need to reclaim the 27$ range we failed last time we came up here but it is looking like a decent setup. I’m still in my postions with an averge of 24$ Watching closely
NYSE:SPCE
by Erictaylor
7
Why i expect SPCE to fall again ?Why i expect SPCE to fall again ? Under $20 SPCE go up only when we fly, and apparently we are not going to fly soon. Bad News - FAA Don't allow anymore any flight until investigation end - Major Technical issue is investigated with a supplier (needed for reentry in atmosphere) - Flight postoned, but it will postoned again from previous reason - High wind deviation in November (Flight window limited) - Possibility to liquidate shares again - Virgin Galactic is very prudent, if there is any doubt they don't fly, because they already had a accident in the past. Good News - November Q3 results My Forecast is Under $20 from now to November When all the bad news are gone, its time to invest again !
NYSE:SPCEShort
by jamdejam
5
SPCE - Bottom is In?The bottom may be in for Virgin Galactic (SPCE). As you can see, SPCE has bounced from this trend line 5 other times in the past. There was one instance where it broke beneath this line with force but the catalyst was based on false news (rumor that flights were grounded until 2022). For investors and traders alike, this may be a great entry. There is still a possibility that we may drop as low as the red line, but as you can see, the purple line that it's currently resting on is much more influential.
NYSE:SPCELong
by ttrending
5
FAA Investigation and Commercial Mission for Italian AirforceSPCE switched from vertical growth and fall to sideways accumulation. SPCE tends to grow massively on News, yet fall in the absence of any. It's probably due to the emotional bond to space research many people & investors have and all of us want to see SPCE succeed. Their main advantage is efficiency. The plane-like runway take-off burns less fuel, so does the feather-like descend. SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other potential competitors use rockets with a vertical start. A disadvantage is that they only approach close to space without getting actually there. My first two analyses on this stock were turned out to be incorrect as I expected FOMO to be bigger after I saw what happened to GameStop. A third one expected a drop to high liquidity and a sideways action until a significant event takes place. A temporary bottom was created according to the expectations. A last one marked area of liquidity where we are right now. Today, I would like to mention two events that might influence price but are unlikely to be anywhere close to Richar Branson's personal approach to the border between Earth & Space. CNN: Richard Branson's flight to edge of space is being investigated by the FAA (Sep 2) Apparently, the ship was knocked off-course during the parade and Federal Aviation Administration didn't like the red lights in the pilot's cabin either. The course was corrected quickly after realizing that. It's one of the disadvantages of flying planes as opposed to rockets which would get less influenced by the upper atmosphere winds. I think FAA won't stay in the way of progress and it's probably nothing serious. If they didn't figure it out, Branson wouldn't join the crew in the first place. Also, I don't see FAA staying in a way of the progress of the most fuel-efficient company in this field. Virgin Galactic: Virgin Galactic Announces First Commercial Research Mission (Sep 2) And I thought that's what Virgin Orbit is for. Anyway, it's a mission from the Italian air force and the goal is to measure bodily functions such as heart rate. Why neither positive FAA investigation outcome nor success in the research mission shall bring comparable rally? Neither is as exciting as the company founder flying to space himself. They have already proven, they can do it. Lastly, the public stream is what attracted so much attention to their previous event. SPCE should return and exceed its previous highs but not until they start putting tourists on board. Hearing some of Branson's ambitious plans, I expect him to release even more shares to raise the company's capital by then like he did last time. It's best to invest now and take profit before a company decides to start building new ports everywhere .
NYSE:SPCELong
by OrcChieftain
3