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Scorpio Tankers Inc.

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STNG trade ideas

A weak dog on his last legsMost people here are bullish but I don't think that's the case. This company is saddled with debt and will not make it through if refined demand destruction from Covid continues. CEO is shady (most Tanker CEOs are really), often does interviews on minor YouTube channels with 2,000 views. Also buys derivatives expiring 6 months out on his own stock? I think the market is pricing in share dilution or something along those lines. Target price somewhere between $10 to $8 by EOY
NYSE:STNGShort
by aussiemandias
1
ADDED TO MY STNG POSITION @ 12.54 AND 12.65. STILL LONGWhat's up bots, friends, and turds - I share this with you, stocktwits peepz, all you sexy strangers, and of course, the much revered , elite pedos .....(It's unclear whether Ghislaine Maxwell actually has covid or is already dead...but Epstein didn't kill himself so we gotta watch this chick). I don't want to get bogged down in the weeds ;), but we are literally sitting in a pile of shit with these tanker stocks. Scorpio, of course, doesn't own VLCC's and doesn't benefit from the crude tanker market or any uptick in oil storage capacity issues. We are a refined petrol transporter and we have a mighty fine fleet. Some might say best in class fleet, definitely the youngest average and many retrofitted with scrubbers already for IMO 2020; a C- management who I find to be aligned with shareholders. Fundamentally, the market is ripe for a sustained uptick in clean tanker rates... Right now, lower rates should cause scrapping of ships for those companies that might need the cash to fund operations... I'm not privvy to the specific scrapping. Anyway, the total fleet shrinks because of aging ships/scrapping; we have a super low order book, meaning the rate of replacement is not going to be sufficient to account for any unexpected/increased demand for moving of clean products. Downside? Fucking covid19 and the closure of the world and total slowing of business, economy, and petrol demand (and refined product demand). Another downside risk, which no one else is talking about, is the shutting down of 1/3 of all previously traveled tanker routes (I'm not 100% versed on this but suffice to say its something we need to look into collectively to understand the downside risk we otherwise may not have considered). These routes might never going to come back online - definitely not until we have 100% back to normal recovery in demand - but even then, maybe never... Then there is also always the potential for accounting issues and straight up fraud (THESE ARE TANKERS, NOT US BASED, and ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN). They are not GAAP Accounting practices, so we need to be more vigilant in reviewing any filed docs to find the turds in the reports. This covid19 bullshit is fundamentally changing life on this entire planet and the way we operate globally, regionally, country, state, city, etc. COVID19 is definitely causing us to see lower prices on the spot rates for LR1/ 2s and MRs and Handymax, although we did get SEXY ASS rates for Q2 2020 and our upcoming ER is going to show that. The immediate risk is continued lower rates with another storm on the horizon (more closures and reduced demand further??). But I trust a free market to balance itself out and think STNG is primed to take advantage of the upcoming market conditions which favor increased rates, and on a sustained multi-year basis, which could make this company a 5-10 bagger in the next 3-5 years. The good? We made money Q2 2020 to pay for operations for 1-2 years even if rates stay low. Q3 2020 rates are believed to be higher than Q3 2019, but they show a loss for Q3 2019 so I'm not sure how good that is. From what I can tell, whether or not we are going to be profitable, and to what extent we are, will likely be shared on the earnings call (if this isn't discussed, it might be a total shit show of a quarter and it's probably why we are priced where we are...::idea?::...). So rates can't stay this low forever, unless there is a just utter breakdown of the petrol refineries and the entire world economy just goes to shit. I just can't really see that happening and with the world coming back online, oil demand is picking back up (thinking like 70% demand recovery might be something I saw, but I also make shit up... so DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH). TECHNICALLY: This is a technical nightmare shit show; but I think we are seeing decent bottoming/consolidation happening at 52wk Lows. This looks ugly, but not ugly to someone who is buying right now in 12s. I recall people calling for 10s and the way this exponentially shit the bed along with the SPY makes me ponder BIGLY. MY OWN PERSONAL BIASED OPINION is that there is a strong potential for a reversal over the next 2 months to $20-$23 and even beyond. The last wave we saw in March took about 6 weeks and got you about 125%+ return if you bought at the low. ONE DAY THIS TURD WILL TURN INTO a DIAMOND. Just not anytime soon. I think in terms of technical indicators and personal pattern recognition, there is a STRONG thesis for a push above 17 and closer to $20 within the next 6-8 weeks (maybe even 10 weeks). Something is different about the state of this stock today... We aren't as volatile (although we are still volatile). It looks defeated. That's why I put a limit order in @ 12.54 to add to my position and it filled. The only thing I see is capitulation has not happened... and my personal belief is that it will not happen, but a longer consolidation may occur before any reversion to the lines. Side Note: Other people are starting to see the value here and I think we will start seeing consistent green days once they turn on the "buy" spicket on the algos holding this thing down IN SUMMARY: 1) I own a shitload of this stock. 2) I am absolutely biased and if you blind-follow me into this trade you are dumb AF. 3) Do your own due diligence. 4) 60-80% upside by September, and if you buy here, watch closely for a sustained break of the line I drew - that would be bad... Like $8 downside bad bc this shit is on crack. LAST WORD: Most of the original pumpers from back in April have sold out and turned bearish ... Which is just ironic. It goes to show you that you can't trust anyone on the internet. This thing is going lower short term, likely getting into my BTFTU level and my predictive curve shows continued consolidation before a steep rise as summer comes to an end. PLACE YOUR BETS ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS THE RICH PERSONS CASINO - AND FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD.
NYSE:STNGLong
by IAmSpoli
3
Balls Deep and all I feel in numbnessWhat is up my random internet bots, autists, and turds! If you're following me, WHY?!?! Just kidding, I have some good ideas sometimes (Check out my MIK chart that wasn't so spot on but would have gotten something like 200-400% depending on if you followed random internet man's random chart with random lines. Anyway, lets keep it real - I am balls deep in a Scorpio Trade that reminds me of one of my first trades back in 2016 before I had any clue WTF I was doing. The fact that I'm here again 4-years later after much more experience and knowledge, leads me to believe that I HAVE NOT LEARNED A DAMN THING EXCEPT MY BALLS ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID. I got in here because I believe in the super cycle. And I feel like that crazy guy who bet against the US Housing Market back in 2007 and looked like a huge autist until he eventually had everyone gagging on the almighty dollar. STNG is the US Housing Market circa 2006 and I am the man who keeps throwing his cash at the trade despite it not working in his favor. I've done so much due diligence on this one stock, I might even suffer from a deep bias. I acknowledge that here, but I also know more about this stock than my family history. I started here with a light nibble when we saw a pullback in the low 30s in early 2020. I was WAY fucking early. This is why I ALWAYS buy in TRAUNCHES. MULTIPLE TRAUNCHES. Then COVID came and I got DECIMATED and unabashedly kept buying on the way down. I made some timely purchases, and some not timely purchases. Then we saw a nice reversal from the decimation based on a beautifully recited (almost too perfect) idea of floating storage and a record Q2 earnings. I saw my deep in the red, holy-shit-honey- the kids-can't-go-to-college, turn into a a small, but nice profit.... DID I sell? Of course not. Why would I sell five dollar bills when I could sell twenty dollar bills? GREEDY LITTLE PIG I was. I had CASH in my hand and I was like... LET IT RIDE BABY!! NO WHAMMY!!! Well, we know how that went because I'm writing here as we just cracked $14 and now the entire fucking world is falling apart, covid is spreading like wildfire in forest, there is rioting, CHAZ (Veganzuela/Soymalia/ANTIFAstan), and honestly, no one knows abso-fucking-lutely anything anymore. We are down 50% from 8-weeks ago, and I suspect some more downside is possible, but unlikely beyond a true double bottom. So, we sit in the 13/14 range, on decently strong support, with absolutely shit everything else. Everyone is calling for us to test 52 week lows, which is why I'm going against the grain and saying that's not going to happen. The indexes have a chance to fall precipitously, covid numbers are at all-time highs in many of the most economically important states, and the economy is open for some kind of "new norm" business and probably will never shut down again... The oil glut that apparently didn't exist, certainly exists.. It's going to take at least a year to unwind all of the extra oil we have out there; but STNG is not an oil tanker company- but instead ships refined products. Demand for refined products has suffered, and so has this stock. That being said, Q2 coming up and $4/share is no joke. The only joke is that money will sit on the balance sheet and not really be put to work until the future is more knowable... And the market kinda hates that... But despite the unknown of the future demand of refined products; no matter what happens, we know Q3 is likely to be better than 2019 Q3 Fundamentally, there is nothing wrong here. I think we are actually being punished for not being a US company...We got pumped because of the internet pumped us on a beautifully articulated narrative. And now people are either panic selling, or psychology selling, or... there is manipulation to keep the price here to allow big accumulation by the big boys. The float is so stupidly small, that the fact we are trading this low smells of something disgusting... Now, I'm not exactly sure how we get out of this, or even if we ever get out of this; but here is what I do know. We are sitting with one of the lowest order books for ships, and STNG has one of the youngest fleets, and a very nice breakeven. I think the growing pains felt after the 2015 cycle are mostly over, and I think this company is going to have pulled in (in earnings) $4/share (ins just 1/2 the year) going into the slowest part of the year. I think COVID is not causing the USA to close down anymore and that COVID is not too bad for younger people - and deadly to older folk and ones with pre-existing conditions (JUST LIKE THE FLU, BRO!). Leaders know this, and also know they need the economy to not absolutely take a shit on itself because if so, everyone is getting voted out. So here is how this plays out and I'm willing to bet I don't know a damn thing because I AM ABSOLUTELY NUMB TO THIS TRADE AND COMPLETELY BIASED. The trend I saw on a separate chart is about 2-3month decline followed by a RAMP up above the 600dma (currently at low 23). We are likely going to bottom out here, go back to 16/17 and consolidate for a week or two, before we go up to $21/$22 by the time earnings are reported. Some issues I see here is that a lot of autists who feel stuck in their trade are going to be selling all the way up to unload their bad choices - yet they'll still have to look at themselves in the mirror every night; or maybe they have to tuck their children into bed and tell them that mommy/daddy doesn't think college is right for them. What they should do is HOLD THE FUCKING LINE because they love cash money, and we could break up to $25/$26 before we all sell and come back down for further consolidation around $14 again... In all seriousness, I see us crossing the 600DMA (not shown on graph) and hitting the upper Fibonacci bands (shown on graph), which ironically is around the 600dma.
NYSE:STNGLong
by IAmSpoli
Bottom in?First lets take a look at the monthly we can see bullish divergence. Moreover this is in a massive falling wedge. Now we can switch over the weekly We see bullish divergence and we also see smaller sell volume on the weekly and a smaller candle body indicating weaker sell pressure( not closed yet but we will see how the rest of the week plays out) . This looks like a good recipe for a double bottom imo. Now let us switch to a smaller time frame such as the 4 hour We are currently inside a falling wedge and we have just rejected the all time lows with bullish divergence that can be seen on the 4h and daily. I believe this area is a very strong buying area for a great position trade.
NYSE:STNGLong
by gNnairdA
$STNGVolume drying up, similar to EOMarch with descending wedge pattern on log scale, looks like ready for a move up. Some good potential catalysts coming with (1) Oil tanker sanctions, (2) demand coming back online (TSA #'s hit 500k+ daily Friday and keep climbing, (3) speculation of OPEC discontinuing cuts in August with oil prices recovering, (4) very low tanker fleet build last couple months due to COVID-19, (5) Fidelity buying 10% of DHT, and (6) FRO CEO adding more shares. Seeing divergence on 4-hr, 2-hr, and technically daily with still no monthly close lower the lowest monthly close that occurred back in Dec '18 and monthly open in Jan '19. Not oblivious to the bearish scenario though with the May monthly candle and last week's candle, if we don't see daily green candles in the next couple days and a weekly green candle next week, the probability this closes monthly at $14 becomes much higher. I went out this weekend with the family and almost no one was wearing masks except store employees. World is coming back online. I think people are realizing COVID was a bit overblown.
NYSE:STNGLong
by topgunbar0
3