5/21/24 - $tgt - leaning long biased into tmr AM print5/21/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:TGT - tough setup, unclear if i'll participate on tmr's AM print. on one hand, the trends look incrementally better than NYSE:WMT which surprised (as the retailer has been absorbing even mid-higher end customers), multiple (adjusted for debt) is modestly above 20x PE which is reasonable for this type of scale (staple-ish) retailer, and 4+% fcf yield seems cheap in this neva-stop-wont-stop-print-4-eva-tape.
on the converse, the tgt demo reminds me of NASDAQ:SBUX + NASDAQ:LULU + $ulta... and that freaks me out from the long side given how these stocks have reacted. the counter point to this, however, is NYSE:TGT really is the lower end of all of these customers - so just like NYSE:WMT absorbed some trade down, it wouldn't be unreasonable for NYSE:TGT to benefit in the same vein.
i'm biased long into the print, but might need someone to tip my scales if u have an opinion leave a comment and let's sort this out
