TGT trade ideas
Triangle or Pennant Breakout | Andrew AponasI analyzed TGT from the Monthly-Daily. From what I can tell it looks like TGT just sold off in a strong bearish down trend on the weekly chart, however price may now be entering a period of accumulation by the insiders. The Blue sideways moving channel is drawn from the weekly and the grey upward moving channel is for the current price action.I have also drawn a test ceiling and supply and demand lines from the monthly. The demand line is drawn exactly where the top of the weekly channel is. I have a bullish breakpoint already drawn on the chart which has signaled an entry to buy, however price is consolidating in a small pennant or triangle, confirmed by the declining volume. I also took note of the last major price waterfall which could have been the insiders buying into the markets selling, thus accumulating their position. It is difficult to conclude where price may breakout to, in the past it has reversed bearish at this ceiling; and the market may be overbought. Price has already diverged from the breakpoint signal, and the indicators (fast) are all overbought calculations. I will stay neutral and wait for confirmation of the direction of the breakout, which will be from the indicators and volume. Thank You, God Bless.
Aroon I have set at a faster speed and found both lines descending in uniform confirming this period of consolidation, the first line that breaks the 50% line will be one signal of the direction of the breakout.
MACD I have set at a faster speed and can see this may be a good pivot point for a reversal however the histogram is still bullish and has the potential to remain above the 0 line and the lines are threading together which in my experience signals price is still in a trend, which means the bullish trend may still be my friend.
Stoch. I have set at a faster speed and have noted that price is in an uptrend threading since 11/15 and has not confirmed that the plot below overbought is signaling to sell. This also may suggest the bullish trend is still my friend.
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Break Points | Break Point Signals | Break Point Signal Lines | Hi I am going to introduce a concept that I learned from trader, user-name gumbtg. Although the concepts were never formerly named while I was learning them from this young trader I have dubbed them "Break-Points" which are a class of intersecting points and can be used on any chart, time frame, or indicator. The concept remains the same through out each different application.
What is a breakpoint? A breakpoint is the intersecting point plotted after the trendline is broken. In example if the trendline is bullish and price finally reverses to break the trendline bearish the exact point at which price has broken the trendline is then plotted, as seen with the transparent blue ovals. This becomes the breakpoint.
From this breakpoint, which remember is a class of intersecting points, the Break Point Signal Line is drawn. The Break Point Signal line is a horizontal line that extends outward and remains active until broken, as seen with the orange horizontal lines. Once price trades in this same example bullish and close above this line a break point signal is confirmed.
What is a Break Point Signal? The breakpoint signal in this example is a bullish signal to go long, once price trades back above this horizontal line and closes there it signals a buy signal to go long, as seen with the blue tailless arrows.
To summarize: Bulls, the intersecting point where the trendline has been broken creates a signal to go long AGAIN once price closes above this value. And Vice Versa. The bear side is the exact same concept except it is applied as an inverse, once price closes below the signal line it confirms a signal to sell short AGAIN. The signal is always in the same direction as the original trend. The Signal line is always a horizontal line drawn from the intersecting point where the trendline was broken.
I learned these concepts from another Trading View Member, Username GUMBTG, who I will tag in the comments below. Please visit his profile for more examples and trade ideas specific on breakpoints, however I do not know if he is or will be calling them Break Points, Break Point Signal Lines, and Break Point Signals. Those names I guarantee will be refereed to in my analysis on my trading ideas. Thank You, God Bless.
$TGT ready for a bounceI think I missed part of the ride from the 50ish, anyway good resistance on the 200MA with a cone type trend lines, Maybe it will break away??????? let see if it works long.
on $TGT retail not deadlooking good inverse head and shoulder holding. Lets see the Friday closing price. Good LT portfolio name.
Target’s Still “On Target” to $45 Support $TGTTarget ($TGT) Weekly: Like many of its peers in the industry, Target is trying to find direction and support after the Amazon news on acquiring Whole Foods, as well as the general weakness in the retail sector. Although it appears to be a more favored stock over, say a stock like Walmart, mainly because it’s been beaten up for a year as the retail sector struggles, and some view it as a bargain at these levels, I still think that this is headed to find support at the $45 level, perhaps leading in to its earnings in mid August. It has hit the lows of around $50 and added a couple of bucks since then, and it may look to test that 50 day moving average resistance at around $55, I think the long term magnet is to the historically important $45 level in the next few weeks, if not months. Monthly view remains to show more room to the downside to come before the stock is solidly in oversold territory.
Target's Near Term Price Target to $45 Looking for SupportTarget ($TGT) Monthly: Target is getting smacked in kind with rest of the retail/grocers after today's announcement of Amazon's ($AMZN) buy out of Whole Foods ($WFM). When companies like Kroger ($KR) are experiencing these kinds of slashing downside moves, it's a good idea to take a breather and stay out of these stocks and let things settle out, instead of falling in to the temptation of guessing the bottoms and picking prices because they've come down so much in such little time. Just because a stock has had a 10-20% move PER DAY doesn't mean it can't go lower - in fact, when broad market/sector conditions are disrupted, the tendency is for people to hit the exits, and not catch falling knives. I've expressed these views on reddit to some folks who are itching to get in these stocks today.
Target shows a long term support at around $45 level, as shown in the monthly chart below. Looking at the RSI and MACD, i would expect this support to be tested in the near term, which means $TGT has further room to the downside. This also represents the .618 fib level. Having broken down from a multi-year channel from 2009 to beginning of 2017, i would expect price pass the .5 fib level (which it did) and extend to the .618 level given the technicals show more room to go. As always, watch the RSI and MACD to support higher moves in price, as indication that it may be turning around and headed higher. Right now, that's just not the case. Caution is recommended.
TGT - dividend champion for small money (4,4% dividend payout)If you look at the dividend payout ratio, you see that TGT is trading at 4,4% meaning that you get 4,4% yearly for your shares.
Company class A rating, 46% debt/ratio, stock's fair value is 63$ currently trading at 55$
Analyse stocks by looking at DIVIDEND GROWTH and DIVIDEND/PRICE Analyse stocks by looking at 3 MONTH time frame looking at Dividend Payouts and Dividend/Price Ratio.
For example: A stock that raises its dividends for many years now yearly by more than 10% and has currently a 4,2% dividend/price ratio (meaning you get 4,2% dividends per every USD you pay) is a good buy, since it is very cheap historically and will probably increase dividends in the next years, meaning you can double your money by dividends in approx. 10 years (additionaly adding the rise of stock value).
Use this indicator in stocks and 3 MONTHS timeframe (if your use stocks with 1 or 12 dividend payments per year, please switch to 1/12 month time frame).
Comparison between target, walmart, kohls, and kmart AND S&P 500As per the Corporate Strategy, Target decided venture in new grounds: SuperTargets and Groceries, Credit Cards, International Retail Presence, and the Stock Repurchasing Plan. Since SuperTargets were 40% bigger than the regular retail stores, this meant an increase in long-term assets. As per the Credit Cards issuance to its customers, Target was the first major discount store to have its own store card in 1995. In the long run, this decision turned against Target. The credit card receivables were growing and had to exit this part of the business. Maybe Target didn’t understand well the credit card business. However, when they decided to “sell the debt” to JP Morgan Chase, instead of continuing to write-off their receivables, the company started to get back on their feet. The company had no International Retail Presence (Walmart earned 24.2% of its total net revenues from outside the US market, however Target had no intentions of doing so by 2008). After starting the Stock Repurchasing Plan in 2004, the company had reinvested $9.44 billions in acquiring 184.4 million shares: “Target owned a larger portion of its real estate than other large retailers. One analyst estimated that Target owned 85% of its stores and other facilities and that these sites could be sold for $28 billion. If Target used this money to buy back shares it could reacquire approximately 60% of its outstanding shares.” This never happened because the company had to make decisions towards preserving cash and giving stability to the business. At the time the case was released, Walmart performed better. The company presented higher Annual Sales Growth and a higher Net Income Margin in 2007 and 2008. In 2006 Target out performed Walmart by 2.7%, in annual sales growth and 15.2% in Annual Net Income Growth. In 2007 Walmart took the lead with 2% and 10.6% in sales and net income growth, respectively. Finally, in 2008 Walmart strongly surpassed Target’s key growth rates by 5.2% in sales and 17% in net income. If compared today, Walmart is still performing better. Not just because of its liquidity in its operating cash flows, but because of its diversified market: National – Walmart US Segment tripled the number of stores and Sam’s Club Segment – and International, which also tripled the number of stores built. Also, the price per share for Target is $55.8 and Walmart presents a $77.24 price per stock.
Sell TGT Iron Condor May 52.5/47.5P, 58.5/62.5CTGT is having earning call on May 17, the same day as the May option expiration. I expect TGT will go side way before then. So I setup the Iron Condor to catch some money before then. Aim to close the position before May 17th.
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Positoin:
Put: -1x52.5/1x47.5
Call: -1*58.5/1x62.5
Breakeven: 51.67 to 59.33
PoP: 72%
Premium: 0.8$
Target Goal: 0.4$ (50% of the premium). This position is to be closed before May 17th, the earning date.
Potential Earnings Plays 2017/05/16URBN (Reports 5/16/2017 AC) IVR = 72.8, Expected Move = 8.41%
TGT (Reports 5/17/2017 BM) IVR = 100, Expected Move = 4.71%
