TRN Trinity Industries (Long) (MidTerm)Fundamental
- Company is growing fast.
- The last earnings surprise was intense.
Technical
- Stock is very underpriced compared to the price paid on the day earnings came out.
- If the liquidity on the upside remains this low, one big rational buyer will aim for the 38 zone as a target.
Macro
- The company will profit more if interest rates go down, driving the earnings up.
- Expecting the growth is exceptional this will work out in the outlook soon.
TRN trade ideas
$TRN approaching breakout point after building a 13 month base!* Solid earnings
* Strong up trend
* Pays dividends
* Sector: Industrials - Railroads
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.83
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.19
* U/D Ratio: 1.37
* Base Depth: 31.63%
* Distance from breakout buy point: -3.17%
* Volume 41.24% above its 15 day average
Trade Idea:
* Wait for a breakout from $32.5
* If it consolidates between $32.5 and $31.4 look for spikes of volume as it'll show accumulation by the institutions.
* Can look to build into the position if it start ranges but manage risk accordingly in case that the breakout does not occur.
Testing the Bear Part III've developed a bearish algorithm/screener that screens for stocks with identified selling pressure / trend followed by a dead cat bounce that is likely to fail - which we will attempt to short. I'm trying to combine trend following and VFI trading principles for the coming bear market.
Components:
1. 200 EMA: below current market price (this is so we don't get stuck in short squeezes and such)
2. 50 day moving average above current market price (we want past clearly identified weakness over a sufficiently long period)
3. 10 day moving average below current price (we want a stock that has attempted to rally from the lows)
4. CMF<-0.1 (we want to screen out bottoming patterns such as Inverse Head and Shoulders whenever we can)
5. Moving Averages Ratings: Buy, Neutral, Sell - we don't anything with strong MA momentum indicators, and we don't want to be short squeezed.
6. Market Cap, Price, volume requirements
Die Melvin DieEmbrace the reflexivity. You see bubble, you long till wrong.
Melvin Capital has a short position on this. It's 2 times the daily volume. IV is cheap. So I'm here to lend a hand out. Let's see if his daddy Ken Griffin's bailout was enough for this poor poor fella. If not, I will always remember you Gabriel.
Extremely +EV bet due to the stupidly low IV. Low probability but it's a play in the case of Melvin and subsequently other shorts covering. Low short interest at 10% but high DTC.
Putting a miniscule amount of profits from other short interest bets into this. Trading is easy.
TRN - Highly Shorted Stock Looking BullishThe stock price has been rising since a double bottom in early October. It broke out of a downtrend today with the price finding support on a level where the price gapped up. This area is also where the 200-EMA line is. Today's short float on this stock was 11.71%. Price targets are noted on the chart.