TSM trade ideas
Yet Another Shot at ATHWith the gap filled, and prior highs showing support, and demand for chips not decreasing even the slightest, I think we got a clear show at ATH from here.
I've taken a started position on this 50d ema test that coincides with prior highs. See the 2 day timeframe on the left, that pullback from ATH was nothing. Compared to the hourly on the right it sure seems like they were big moves.
Always have to zoom out. I'll add more to my long position so long as we establish support on the way up.
Taiwan Semiconductor - Riding the Nvidia bullish waveNYSE:TSM has been on an uptrend and the recent correction has been a weak bearish downside, forming a bullish flag instead. Yesterday's bullish bar break above the flag has been confirmed and long-term MACD has been rising, supporting the long-term uptrend.
We believe that the stock is likely to continue to edge up higher in the longer-term. SHort-term target is at 230.00 while long-term we are eyeing beyond 280.00-300.00
TSM upward channels. trade the channels going upTaiwan Semiconductor. up ward channels. Trade the channels going up ward. find the pattern and trade the pattern going up. History repeats itself. these are the things i use to trade stocks. use at a risk. informational purpose only. if the stock closes on the floor it will probly make a new low. just saying.
TSM INV H&S- Weekly CallsNYSE:TSM - 4h showing an inverse head and shoulder patterns signaling a flip from sellers in control to buyers in control leading me to believe she can see more continuation throughout the week if 4h can continue to hold up healthy bullish price action. Will be looking ot take intraday breakouts to the upside throughout the week. Not so much interested in shorts at all UNLESS 4h happens to flip back bearish and begins to head for that GAP below.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Shares Rise by Nearly 10%Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Shares Rise by Nearly 10%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) posted quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $1.95, Expected = $1.79;
→ Revenue: Actual = $23.6 billion, Expected = $23.3 billion.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
→ The company expects its revenue from servers and AI processors to triple this year, representing about 15% of its total revenue.
→ TSMC forecasts Q4 revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion.
→ Citi analysts believe TSMC's gross profit could continue growing next year.
→ Morningstar analyst Felix Lee noted that TSMC is well-positioned against competitors like Samsung and Intel.
TSMC shares surged following the report. Today's stock chart shows: → A 10% increase, reaching an all-time high;
→ The stock surpassed the psychological $200 level;
→ Year-to-date price growth is around 100%.
Technical analysis of the TSM stock chart indicates:
→ The price has been rising within an ascending channel since 2024 (marked in blue), with yesterday’s move pushing it into the upper half of the channel, surpassing the median resistance.
→ On strong news, a bullish gap formed between $190-$200, potentially acting as support.
→ The RSI indicator entered overbought territory, with a long upper wick on the candle suggesting a possible correction.
Optimistic forecasts could sustain long-term bullish sentiment, although short-term corrections may occur from the overbought zone towards support levels like the channel's median or the bullish gap area.
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(TSM) Taiwan Semiconductor Set for a Bullish Surge!Technical Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – 15-Minute Timeframe (Long Trade)
We entered a long trade on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at 204.25 after a clear bullish signal. The trade is currently in progress, and we are waiting for the profit targets to be hit.
Key Levels
Entry: 204.25 – The long position was initiated here following a strong upward signal.
Stop-Loss (SL): 195.45 – Positioned below support to manage risk and protect against downside movement.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 215.12 – The first target we are eyeing as the bullish momentum unfolds.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 232.71 – A further upside target, marking a significant rally if the momentum continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 250.30 – A potential target if the bullish trend remains strong.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 261.17 – The ultimate target, signaling a substantial upside move.
Trend Analysis
The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating strong bullish momentum. The upward movement is supported by a solid breakout, and we are now watching for the targets to be met.
The long trade on TSM looks promising, with a clear entry at 204.25. We are now monitoring the price as it approaches the first target at 215.12, expecting further upside momentum.
$TSM Expected Move for Earnings Tomorrow Alright, y'all. TSM reports before the bell tomorrow and this is the implied move.
Here's what Wall Street is expecting:
🔸 EPS: $1.78 (+41% YoY)
🔸 Revenue: $23.30B (+38% YoY)
On the last good pullback we did find support on the 1hr 200MA
Revenue Expectations: Analysts expect TSM to report a significant revenue figure for the third quarter, with estimates around $23.3 billion. This represents a year-over-year increase, driven by the continued demand for advanced chips, particularly those used in AI applications.
Market Sentiment: There's a mixed sentiment around TSM's earnings. On one hand, the tech sector, especially chipmakers, have been benefiting from the AI boom, which has led to optimism about TSM's performance. However, concerns about a potential slowdown in the chip industry, as hinted by ASML's guidance cut, have introduced some caution.
Earnings Impact on Broader Market: Given TSM's significant role in the tech supply chain, especially with clients like Nvidia and Apple, its earnings are watched closely as a bellwether for the semiconductor industry's health. Positive earnings could provide a boost to the Nasdaq and related tech indices, while a miss or weak guidance might lead to a sell-off in tech stocks.
Revenue and Profit: Analysts predict around $23.3 billion in revenue and $9.33 billion in profit for Q3, reflecting growth mainly from AI chip demand.
Market Sentiment: Optimism due to AI boom, tempered by industry slowdown concerns following ASML's warning.
Stock Impact: TSM's stock has surged but could react strongly to earnings; a positive report might boost Nasdaq, while any miss could lead to tech sell-off.
Key Points of Interest: Investors look for TSM's future investment plans, guidance on AI and smartphone markets, and strategies to navigate geopolitical issues affecting supply chains.
Market Reaction: Anticipation mixed with caution; potential for significant market movement based on actual results and forward-looking statements.
GL, y'all.
10/15/24 - $tsm - A buy into results sub $19010/15/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
A buy into results sub $190
- 25x EPS on EV... growing high 20s, low 30s%. not cheap but you get what you pay for - best in the biz
- go read my NASDAQ:ASML comment. while i'm short term swingin sub $730, tmr i probably remove it from my buddy list - there's a chance someone has figured out how to disintermediate their process. just a hypothesis for now. but if it's anyone, TSM is probably involved.
- high end chip demand remains unstoppable. again back to $asml... seems to be more related to factors that are less "directly" correlated to TSM. so the risk off day was/is probably a gift to still buy one of the top dogs
- i'm probably going to swap my 2% stake in asml for 2-3% in tsm tmr depending on how the market opens (smaller if it's up, bigger if it's up at the open)
- pecking order still remains NASDAQ:NVDA > NASDAQ:AVGO > $tsm... but will do more work to determine if NYSE:TSM > $avgo. will report back.
- anyway. if i owned NYSE:TSM , i'd not be trimming only looking for a smart place to add depending on my size/ risk levels on other stuff in my portfolio.
V
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TSM before the major breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 190usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $13.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
TSMC’s Revenue Beats Market Expectation Stock up 1% in PremarketTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, has once again surpassed market expectations, reporting third-quarter revenue of NT$759.69 billion ($23.62 billion). This result not only outshines the forecast of NT$750.36 billion but also marks a remarkable 39.6% year-on-year growth for September alone. TSMC's performance continues to be buoyed by increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, with major clients like Nvidia and Apple relying heavily on its advanced chip production. With AI hardware spending playing a pivotal role, the question arises: how long can TSMC sustain this momentum?
AI Demand as a Driving Force
TSMC (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) has been at the forefront of the AI revolution, with demand for cutting-edge chips continuing to rise. As one of the key suppliers for AI hardware, especially for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) used in AI server farms, TSMC has benefitted immensely from the recent AI boom.
- Revenue Growth: For the third quarter of 2024, TSMC reported an impressive revenue of $23.62 billion, a 36.5% on-year growth compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is largely attributed to the rising global investment in AI infrastructure.
- Customer Base: TSMC’s clientele includes giants such as Apple and Nvidia, both of which are instrumental in the AI market. Apple’s continuous demand for high-performance chips for its devices and Nvidia’s increasing need for AI GPUs have fueled TSMC’s steady revenue stream.
- Pandemic vs. Post-Pandemic Demand: While demand related to the pandemic has tapered off, the surge in AI development has compensated for this decline. TSMC’s ability to pivot its focus toward emerging technologies has helped it maintain a competitive edge.
As governments and companies continue to chase AI supremacy, TSMC’s position as the key chip manufacturer cements its role in this ongoing technological race. However, there are concerns that infrastructure spending on AI may begin to taper off if no immediately monetizable AI use cases emerge. This sure will be an important trend to monitor in the coming quarters.
Technical Outlook: Is TSMC Approaching a Breakout?
From a technical standpoint, NYSE:TSM is showing strong signs of bullish momentum. The stock is currently up 1% in premarket trading as of Wednesday and has gained 72% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market.
As of Tuesday’s close, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TSM sits at 68, suggesting that the stock is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t quite crossed the threshold yet. This indicates that while there’s significant buying momentum, a pullback or consolidation phase could be imminent.
The stock has been trading closely to its moving average for several weeks before breaking out during the first week of October. This upward movement has triggered increased buying interest.
One of the most compelling technical patterns forming on TSM’s daily chart is the "Three White Crows," which is a bullish continuation pattern. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candles, each closing higher than the previous day, signaling that the stock could maintain its upward trajectory for a while longer.
Given the RSI nearing overbought levels and the emergence of the "Three White Crows" pattern, (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) may experience continued growth in the short term. However, cautious investors may want to wait for a possible retracement or consolidation before entering a new position.
Outlook and Risks: What Should Investors Watch For?
As TSMC (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) prepares to release its full earnings report on October 17, investors will be closely monitoring the company’s future guidance, especially in relation to AI demand. While current demand remains strong, sustained growth will largely depend on whether large AI players like Meta and Google can continue their current pace of infrastructure spending. Without monetizable use cases, there’s a risk that demand for AI hardware could plateau.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly between Taiwan and China, could present risks for TSMC. As a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain, any disruption in TSMC’s production capabilities could have far-reaching consequences.
Conclusion
TSMC’s recent performance reaffirms its pivotal role in the global AI hardware ecosystem. With AI demand driving substantial revenue growth, the company is well-positioned to continue capitalizing on this trend. However, investors should be mindful of potential risks, including overbought technical indicators and broader market factors that could impact AI hardware spending.
Technically, the "Three White Crows" pattern suggests continued bullish momentum, but with the RSI nearing overbought territory, a cautious approach may be warranted. Long-term investors with faith in the sustained growth of AI and semiconductor demand may view this as an opportune moment to hold or add positions in TSM(NYSE: NYSE:TSM ).
Ultimately, TSMC's future trajectory will hinge on AI developments and how effectively the company navigates emerging challenges. All eyes will be on its full earnings report and guidance later this month.
TSM: Entry, Volume, Target, Stop Entry: above 189.33
Volume: above 15.1M
Target: 204.10 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 189.33, 182.02 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
TSMC doing a double Top ???NYSE:TSM
In combination with the Weekly Shooting star this is concerning ....... (!)
Shooting Star, especially Weekly are VERY RELIABLE (!)
Looks not good - On the other hand we had a HUGE BULLISH ENGULFING early Aug, maybe nothing this time ............ !?????!
Taiwan SemiconductorTaiwan Semiconductor witnessed a strong rebound in yesterday's session, violating the major resistance level 175.45$, and the confirmation of this breakout by remaining above 175.45$, will confirm shifting the trend to an uptrend, triggering further rises near 184.86$ - 193.47$ - 200$ - 209$.
The stop-loss lies below 172.60$.
the indicators are heading toward the positive side, which confirms the mentioned positive scenario.
The information and publications are not intended to be or constitute any financial, investment, commercial, or other types of advice or recommendations provided.
TSM: Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: above 175.45
Volume: above average
Target: 197.89 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 175.46, 167.96 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
Taiwan Semiconductor's August Performance Hints at Bright FutureTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reported strong topline growth of 33% in August 2024, highlighting its resilience amid global economic uncertainties. The company's revenue reached NT$250.9 billion ($7.8 billion), reflecting the ongoing demand for advanced AI chips and a positive outlook for the smartphone market, particularly driven by the latest iPhone 16 and 16 Pro models.
Driving Forces Behind TSM's Growth
TSMC’s stellar performance can be attributed to several key factors, primarily its dominant position in high-performance computing and the increasing global demand for AI chips. The company now generates over 50% of its revenue from this segment, significantly boosted by orders from Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ), a leading player in AI chip development. As AI continues to permeate industries globally, TSMC's pivotal role as a supplier of high-performance chips places it at the forefront of this transformative wave.
Moreover, the adoption of Wi-Fi 7 technology in Apple's new iPhone models is expected to drive increased demand for TSMC's N6 (7-nanometer) and N4 (5-nanometer) nodes, already used by industry giants such as Broadcom and MediaTek. Analysts expect TSMC’s revenue to grow by 37% in Q3 2024, supported by robust sales and continued investments in AI infrastructure. The company’s ongoing global expansion, including projects in Arizona, Japan, and a newly launched €10 billion facility in Germany, underscores its commitment to capitalizing on these growth opportunities.
TSMC’s Arizona facility has achieved production yields on par with those of its Taiwan plants, further solidifying the company's capacity to meet global demand. This alignment in production efficiency is a promising sign for investors, demonstrating TSMC’s ability to scale its operations without compromising quality—a critical factor in maintaining its competitive edge.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, TSMC’s stock shows promising signs of sustained upward momentum despite recent volatility. As of the latest analysis, TSM is down 0.60%, trading at $161.52 with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53, which indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This balanced RSI level suggests a prime environment for potential growth, aligning well with the company's strong fundamentals.
The daily price chart reveals a golden cross pattern, which occurred in February 2024, when TSM’s 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average. This bullish signal was validated as NYSE:TSM surged to a high of $198 by July 2024. Since then, the stock has been attempting to form a head and shoulders pattern, with a critical neckline support level at $133. A break below this support could trigger a bearish reversal, leading to further price declines. However, as long as TSM remains above this pivotal point, the long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by the broader market trends in AI and advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
The AI Boom and TSMC’s Future Prospects
TSMC’s bullish stance on AI was echoed at a recent industry forum, where senior executives from both TSMC and Samsung Electronics (OTC: SSNLF) expressed their optimism about the sector’s future. The rapid adoption of AI technologies is projected to drive compound growth rates of at least 50% annually in the near term, presenting a significant opportunity for chipmakers like TSMC. Despite short-term market fluctuations, the long-term trajectory for AI and related technologies remains upward, positioning TSMC as a crucial player in this evolving landscape.
Conclusion
Taiwan Semiconductor’s strong August performance and optimistic outlook reflect the company's strategic positioning in the AI and high-performance computing markets. As a key supplier for Nvidia and Apple, TSMC (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) is poised to benefit from the rising demand for advanced semiconductors, bolstered by ongoing investments in global capacity expansion. With strong fundamentals and a technically sound price structure, TSMC presents a compelling opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the next wave of technological innovation.
However, investors should remain vigilant of key support levels and broader market conditions, which could influence short-term price movements. As the company continues to navigate the complexities of global demand and supply chain dynamics, its strategic initiatives and technological prowess will be essential in sustaining its market leadership and delivering long-term value to shareholders.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited LONG
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited : Price is coming from Weekly Supply 185
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Qtrly Demand 158.7
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Weekly Demand 142.36
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Buy 142.6 & SL 126
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Buy 186
TSMC- Last leg of Bull runLike in other semiconductors companies, i see last leg of this bull run. Once sub wave 5(of larger wave 3) is over, expect deep correction in wave 4 which will be preceded by final wave 5.
Kindly, like and share if you like this idea. :)
TSMC Surges 3% in Premarket Trading on Strong AI Chip Demand Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( BCBA:TSMC ), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, saw its shares rise by 3% in premarket trading on Friday following a remarkable surge in monthly sales. TSMC's July revenue soared by 45%, reflecting the robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, particularly from tech giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). This strong performance is bolstering confidence in the company's ability to exceed market expectations for the third quarter.
Impressive July Sales Highlight AI Boom
TSMC's sales reached NT$256.95 billion ($7.9 billion) in July, a significant increase that accelerates the company's growth from the previous quarter. This surge in revenue suggests that TSMC is well on track to surpass analysts' projections of NT$747.4 billion for the third quarter. The company's role as a key supplier to industry leaders such as Nvidia, Apple, and AMD positions it as a critical player in the ongoing AI boom, which has driven unprecedented demand for high-performance computing chips.
Last quarter, high-performance computing, spearheaded by AI, accounted for 52% of TSMC's revenue, marking the first time this segment has contributed more than half of the company’s earnings. This trend underscores the increasing reliance on AI-driven technologies across various industries and highlights TSMC's pivotal role in meeting this demand.
Positive Outlook Amid Market Uncertainty
TSMC’s strong July performance comes on the heels of the company raising its full-year growth outlook to beyond the maximum mid-20% range it had previously guided. CEO C.C. Wei’s optimistic assessment of the company’s prospects, coupled with the potential for price increases as customers transition to TSMC’s most advanced technology, has further fueled investor confidence.
Despite concerns about the global economic outlook and recent market volatility, BCBA:TSMC remains a bellwether for the AI market. The company’s 44.7% year-over-year sales surge in July, the second-highest in the past 20 months, aligns with expectations for a robust third quarter. The significant orders for 3-nanometer chips from tech giants like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek further reinforce TSMC's strong market position and growth potential.
Investor Sentiment and Market Recovery
The AI rally that had propelled BCBA:TSMC and other key players to substantial market gains faced a brief interruption last week due to concerns about the global economy. TSMC’s shares experienced a sharp 10% drop in a single day as investors opted to cash out some of the year’s biggest gainers. However, the company quickly recovered much of that loss as savvy investors recognized the dip as a prime buying opportunity, underscoring the market's underlying confidence in TSMC's long-term prospects.
Conclusion: TSMC's Future Looks Bright
With its impressive July sales figures and strong positioning in the AI chip market, BCBA:TSMC is poised to continue its upward trajectory. As the demand for AI and high-performance computing chips shows no signs of slowing down, TSMC’s ability to capitalize on this trend places it at the forefront of technological innovation and market leadership. The company’s robust sales growth, coupled with its strategic partnerships with tech giants, suggests that TSMC is well-positioned to not only meet but exceed market expectations in the coming quarters.
A pe band for TSMC in TaiwanThis chart express Tsmc Pe band and Monthly revenue.
Also , an input of 2025 year EPS forecast will bring future P/E band till 2025 year.
TSM - short until it finds a supportLike all Semis TSM is on a slide as well
Target#1 160
Target#2 150
Target #3 140, most probably
TSM LONGThis company has a moat, is incredibly profitable, and is in a growing field with the need for chip fabrication for continuation of the AI market. The only reason to not buy this one right now is if you think WW3 is gonna kick off soon and we are all cooked.
Not a financial advisor.
7/30/24 - $tsm - Adding here mid $150s7/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
Adding here mid $150s
- growing mid 20s CAGR, PE sub 20x
- no competitors for their designs
- backlog as high as the eye can see
- "china china china" is FUD /politicians own it for a reason
- 20% off from the top
- going higher
- do we go 15% lower before we go higher? ask uncle Jerome. i don't know.
I like NASDAQ:NVDA > NYSE:TSM > NASDAQ:ASML today in that order. I'd forget the rest. There are mega/large caps with massive moats. Save some ammo if we're going lower before higher, obviously. But I like the idea of using some of my dry powder to buy these (as you guys know I've sold down some of my OTC:GDLC after the recent pop - still more to go but cautious in the short term - I'm down to 35% from nearly 60% two wks ago for perspective).
Be safe. stay solvent. ofc comment if you see it differently or what your moves are here.
V
