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TWTR trade ideas

TWITTER - Short position - Overbought at the resistanceLooking at Twitter the chart shows that it´s overbought and is likely to go down. Following the Bollinger Bands we see the price has touched and moved out of the upper band. Following the RSI 14 we see that the RSI went above 70. So both indicators are indicating a move to the downside. According to the earning announcement we expect it will be towards the downside as well. Targets and further details are shown in the chart. Good luck!
NYSE:TWTRShort
by vf_investment
2
Twitter EWT (3mo) (October 2022) [B]Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (3mo) (October 2022) [A]Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (1mo) (October 2022)Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (1w) (October 2022)Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (3d) (October 2022)Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (1d) (October 2022)Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Hambooger
Twitter EWT (4h) (October 2022)Twitter Inc (October 11th, 2022) There's been lots of debate on the Musk acquisition of Twitter and it's still ongoing, but even if Musk does acquire Twitter, it could be offered up as an IPO again later. Regardless, I think the crowd psychology and trends currently in motion that could stay in motion with Twitter will cause a crash to $9-$13 a share according to my Elliott Wave Theory. Even if company goes private, the value of twitter in people's minds may still follow a path but we just won't have a clear metric to measure it with. I see lots of double zig zags, and I think price can stop around either $57 or $61 before trending back down again to $9-$13. I'll post a few different candle timeframes to illustrate how long it could take. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Hambooger
TWTRTWTR This one smells Musky. TWTR in an obvious downtrend here. Price has been unable to make a higher high for quite sometime dating back to Feb.’21 when it reached its highs. A series of lower lows has now formed a down trendline. Support has formed at 32.55 Price is currently has pulled back to the down trendline which would also be an area of value. This is my cue to enter trade short. Taking swing to support area of 32.55 Entry: 41.18 Stop loss: 45.45 Target: 32.75, +20.47%, 1.97 RR ratio
NYSE:TWTRShort
by rudcharts
30 Quotes From Philosopher That Will Make You ThinkQuotes, man. I love them. Excerpts, proverbs, quips, riddles, koans, aphorisms, limericks, snippets, and lyrics— I’m not the type to discriminate. I love them all. Since In Latest TradingView Post About "Traders Gaining Momentum : Fall Edition" to Compile Great Authors To Read And I Will Try To Compile Great Quotes From Philosopher For Traders And Investors. TradingView Listing Great Users To Read On. Okay In this week’s post , I’d like to share with you a few quotes that I think will benefit you. They deliver potent, pithy shots of clarity, insight, and/or motivation that can help you gain perspective, especially if times are tough. Read, contemplate, and maybe note these, as if they were personal notes left to you by some of the greatest minds –past and present. 1.– “ Man only likes to count his troubles; he doesn’t calculate his happiness .” ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky In trading: Basing your happiness on trade outcomes —events that are in themselves ever-changing— is self-imposed suffering. Let go. Trust the process, and let yourself enjoy unconditional happiness. 2. — “ If you look for perfection, you’ll never be content .” ― Leo Tolstoy In trading: Trade entries or exits are rarely going to be perfect. Make peace with that. 3.– “ I want to sing like the birds sing, not worrying about who hears or what they think .” ― Rumi In trading: Don’t let other’s opinions shake you out of your trades. Learn to trust your system/ your process/ your opinion. 4.– “ Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars .” ― Kahlil Gibran In trading: Beginner’s luck often stifles growth. Losses and failure are good for you. 5.– “ You could not step twice into the same river .” ― Heraclitus In trading: Change is everywhere. Even in the market it is a constant. The market generates patterns and even though those patterns seem to repeat themselves with a certain degree of consistency, they’re never completely the same – they don’t share the same intensity, momentum, and duration. 6.– “ Let everything happen to you; beauty and terror, just keep going. No feeling is final .” ― Rainer Maria Rilke In trading: Following your plan should be viewed as an essential act, even though it’s a struggle most of the time. It’s so important to believe that it will be worth it in the end —rather than doubting and judging how it feels in each moment. 7.– “ The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance .” ― Alan W. Watts In trading: Never be afraid of change or uncertainty. Embrace them by being as open/flexible/adaptable as possible. 8.– “ A good traveler has no fixed plans and is not intent on arriving .” ― Lao Tzu In trading: Trading can be a ‘one-hit wonder’ thing, where you eventually land one trade that changes everything for you. But instead, I urge you to think of it as a lifelong journey. The psychological implications are very different. 9.– “ Life’s under no obligation to give us what we expect .” ― Margaret Mitchell In trading: There are no guarantees in trading. The sooner you accept that, you sooner you can release your expectations and focus unconditionally on a proven process that’ll raise your probability of success. 10.– “ Flow with whatever may happen, and let your mind be free: Stay centered by accepting whatever you are doing. This is the ultimate .” ― Chuang Tzu In trading: Do not bring emotional struggle into trading. Everything changes -outcomes, markets, circumstances, states of mind… There is nothing to cling to. Go with the flow. Trade in the moment. 11.– “ You can feel an emotion; just don’t think that it’s so important .” — John Cage In trading: When you let your emotions come to the surface; when you embrace them, no matter their content or intensity, you transcend them. When you deny them and try to push them down, they afflict you even more. 12.– “ The instant you speak about a thing, you miss the mark .” ― Zen Proverb In trading: Don’t bother showing to the world that you’re a good trader. Just act like one. 13.– “ You must let what happens happen. Everything must be equal in your eyes, good and evil, beautiful and ugly, foolish and wise .” ― Michael Ende In trading: In trading, whatever is going to happen will happen, whether you want it or not. Your job is not to react blindly… This game is all about strategic maneuvering. 14.– “ Worry is preposterous; we don’t know enough to worry .” — Wei Boyang In trading: A simple way to prevent thoughts from turning into worrying (overthinking) is to trade while remaining open to all possibilities. 15.– “ The longer I live, the more uninformed I feel. Only the young have an explanation for everything .” ― Isabel Allende In trading: The more you stay in the game, the more you’ll realize that there are no real ‘pros’ in trading. We’re all just perpetual students of the market. But some losing traders think they have all the answers. They can’t learn because they’re busy telling everyone what they know and what to do. 16.– “ Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom .” — Alexis de Tocqueville In trading: Some people get into trading to escape the rat race, but then they feel the need to sit in front of their screen all day to watch the market. They think they have to trade all the time. It’s a big mistake. 17.– “ It’s more difficult to rule yourself than to rule an entire city. ” ― Jordan B Peterson In trading: Trading can be easy. The real problem is the worrying, the expectations, delusions, the inability to let go… For those reasons, it’s not. That’s why working on your mindset day in and day out is the most important thing you can ever do if you want to stay in the game long enough to experience success. 18.– “ Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are the dead .” ― Aldous Huxley In trading: Humans are fallible and perfect consistency is virtually impossible. Even expert traders make mistakes from time to time. The only difference between them and the amateurs is that their mistakes aren’t deadly because money management is their number one priority. Expert traders also recognize early on that they’ve made a mistake and they are quick to correct their course of action without hesitation. 19.– “ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule .” ― Friedrich Nietzsche In trading: The herd mentality is a contagious phenomenon. To prevent it from sneaking up on you, it can be useful to train yourself to read, feel, and understand your emotions and urges. 20.– “ That which does not kill us makes us stronger. ” ― Friedrich Nietzsche In trading: Everything that happens is an opportunity for growth. Nothing is placed before you that you can’t handle. So spend no time on blame, bitterness, or feeling sorry for yourself, and you put everything towards learning and growth. 21.– “ Your mind will answer most questions if you learn to relax and wait for the answer .” ― William S. Burroughs In trading: You missed a trade? Frustration comes when we want things to be different from how they are. Why waste time in fantasies and what could have been? Why not just relax and wait for the next trade opportunity? There’ll always be one… 22.– “ Anything which is troubling you, anything which is irritating you, that is your teacher. ” ― Ajahn Chah In trading: You must expect failure as part of your trading journey. Failure and success go hand in hand — you cannot have one without the other. 23.– “ If you don’t have a strategy, you’re part of someone else’s strategy . ” ― Alvin Toffler In trading: In this field, lots of fake traders are after your money. Make sure you learn from the right people. This is critical. 24.– “ Disillusionment in living is finding that no one can really ever be agreeing with you completely in anything. ” ― Gertrude Stein In trading: You are only trading your opinion, which is a relative truth. Price is the absolute truth. 25.– “I know there is no straight road; no straight road in this world, only a giant labyrinth of intersecting crossroads.” ― Federico Garcia Lorca In trading: The path to market success is not a straight one. You will fall along the way. But losses and failures eventually get you wisdom. Without wisdom, durable market success is simply not possible. So learn to enjoy the journey. 26.– “ All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone .” ― Blaise Pascal In trading: Meditation helps you know yourself. You can’t trade well if you don’t know yourself. 27.– “ We are our choices .” ― Jean-Paul Sartre In trading: Take responsibility for your losses and work on bettering the quality of your decisions. 28.– “ Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself .” ― Jean-Paul Sartre In trading: Don’t wait for trade ideas from others. Work on being completely self-reliant. 29.– “ Maybe it’s not about happy ending. Maybe it’s about the story.” ― Albert Camus In trading: See trading as a kind of journey in which you will transform yourself, rather than a mere money-making endeavor. 30.– “ Ask yourself at every moment, “Is this necessary? ” ― Marcus Aurelius In trading: In some sense, trading mastery is simply noticing your patterns of thought, emotions and behavior that are not skillful, and having the strength of mind to say “no… I’m not gonna do that.” -END- I Hope You Have Nice Days And Wishyou Profitable Weeks!! Hot Baked Pumpkin Is Really Nice In This Time. 🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁🍁 Source : Yvan
NYSE:TWTREducation
by Zestiria
35
TWTR Twitter: Big Drop Coming?Today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for Twitter (TWTR). In the excitement of Elon Musk restarting talks about purchasing Twitter, the stock had a very strong rally. However the weekly chart shows a concern for the future of the stock price. The price has been in a Symmetrical Triangle and has the potential to break above or below it. Since the RSI is almost at overbought, there is a strong chance the price will come back down. Furthermore, weekly Volume is not that strong even with the price rally as shown in the chart. I placed Fibonacci Retracement from the last low in 2016 to the ATH in 2021 with the potential for this stock to come down to the 0.382 or 0.236 before falling lower to the Symmetrical Triangle measured move of $15-$17. Lastly, a death cross (50 SMA crossing 200 SMA) occurred, which is a bearish signal. If the price moves higher, it has a chance to reach the $75-$77 range. This is a weekly chart so please be patient. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
NYSE:TWTR
by MillionaireEconomics
3
Pump and Dump Part IIToday a letter was released from the Musk parties stating basically they want to go back to Square One. As per my understanding it doesn't say Musk will unconditionally buy Twitter, it basically says they are standing their ground and they're abiding by the original acquisition terms, which back then stated there should be transparency with the "bots" and other issues that made Musk withdraw the offer. So it is basically conditioning the acquisition to the original terms if Twitter dismisses the lawsuit. The circumstances that motivated Musk to back off are still there and the circumstances that initiated the lawsuit are still there, so there's no real advance in the negotiation, but smoke and mirrors. Musk must have a very good team of technical trader advisors who have been giving a perfect timing for the tweets and announcements. In this case, we can see that after the drama shown on the initial offer there was nothing happening and the market lost interest in the acquisition, taking the stock from the 54 level back to 32, making a series of Lower Highs and Higher Lows (triangular consolidation) today it is at the tip of the triangle, and it's a technical point where a range break out is about to happen. There is a coiling negatively divergent momentum, and low volume, heading to the bear side. it only needed the triggering element, The "nothing burger" letter. The timing in the market is also another factor to consider, in a wink of an eye in a one minute bar the stock spiked and it was halted the minute after when it started to go down. Then all the media started to stir this up over and over and over and over, until all finance and non finance news outlets and even social media had already spread the news as "Elon goes ahead with the acquisition at the originally proposed price" ... however, the Devil is in the details. Another timing element that strikes my attention is that important announcements are never given in the open market, and it happened in the middle of the day, at lunch time, o'clock the stock went from 43 to 47, and the minute after the trading was halted after it started to sell from 50 until 48, it resumed trading until 3:35 pm EST, 25 minutes before market close. This looks like an open invitation to gather as many bag holders as possible who are pressured by the "Missing Out the boat" syndrome. Although the Musk team confirmed the original $54.20 acquisition price, the market didn't stabilized at that level, like it happens when there's a serious acquisition, it was bouncing below that level, which makes it look more like a staged acquisition to draw liquidity for those who want to exit the market at that level. In the after market the stock didn't react to the upside, it is sliding to the down side and right at this point in time it is at 51.34. The two sections of the letter that make this a "Nothing Burger" are : 1) "... provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM) (the “Action”) and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings ..." 2) The Musk Parties provide this notice without admission of liability and without waiver of or prejudice to any of their rights, including their right to assert the defenses and counterclaims pending in the Action How this story may unravel, since this is not a commitment to proceed with the merger, but a condition to proceed with the merger, this doesn't take the deal out of the swamp where it has been for a while. They can be entangled again and Twitter can just go ahead with the deal the way it was before the letter release, turning this situation into a Twitter Legal Pump and Dump part II. It is not the first time that "rumors" of a Twitter acquisiton have been spread, it looks like it is a sport when liquidity is needed. The difference is that it involves a celebrity of the financial market, pretty much the way Livermore's Wife was used back in the day for a Pump and Dump schema. This is a Verbatim copy from the letter: Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati Professional Corporation 650 Page Mill Road Palo Alto, CA 94304-1050 Attn: Marty W. Korman Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP 425 Lexington Avenue New York, New York 10017 Attn: Alan Klein Gentlemen: On behalf of X Holdings I, Inc., X Holdings II, Inc. and Elon R. Musk (the “Musk Parties”), we write to notify you that the Musk Parties intend to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM) (the “Action”) and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the Court. The Musk Parties provide this notice without admission of liability and without waiver of or prejudice to any of their rights, including their right to assert the defenses and counterclaims pending in the Action, including in the event the Action is not stayed, Twitter fails or refuses to comply with its obligations under the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement or if the transaction contemplated thereby otherwise fails to close. The Letter filed with SEC The Letter filed with SEC
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Madrid
3
Musk VS The LawHello friends. We previously called the exact bottom of Twitter stock by using a probability analysis showing that Twitter was dramatically undervalued based on the market's expected probability of a Twitter buyout. Since then we have made even more money from Twitter stock, and we will explain our strategy moving forward. Polymarket says the probability of a Twitter buyout by the end of 2022 is 26%. There's also a far more liquid options market for Twitter buyout calls. These calls expire slightly later on January 20th, 2023, with a strike price of $52.50. The max value for a call would be realized if there was a buyout for $54.20, and then the calls would be worth exactly $1.70 each. The current value of one of these call options is $0.45. If you take the price ($0.45) minus the max profit ($1.70), you get $1.25. This is the maximum profit if a trader were to buy calls at this price. Now that we have calculated these figures, we can actually use a fancy trick to derive the Implied Probability . Implied probability is an estimate of a prediction market outcome’s probability based on that outcome’s payoff. (Make sure never to pay the high spread when trading these options, since the spread is around 25% and it will eat you for breakfast if you use a market order.) In this case, the payoff is $1.25 and the risk is $0.45. So you can take 1.25 / 0.45 and you will get 2.77 repeating. To put it another way, the market is saying that the odds of Elon buying Twitter are 1 in 2.77. You can also convert this fraction to a percentage so it's easier to work with. After doing this, we see that the options market thinks the probability of a buyout is 36%. We can also utilize data from a non-cash-based prediction market named Manifold Markets. This platform pegs the odds of Musk buying Twitter this year at 28%, but it also adds an interesting nuance to the picture. It has the odds that "Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the Twitter deal at the original terms?" resolves to YES set at 42%. This tells us loud and clear that the market is pricing in a high probability that even if Elon Musk is ordered by the judge to complete his transaction on the agreed terms, he might simply refuse to do it. Some have speculated that he could even end up in jail for doing this. Luckily, the legal officials should have access to liquidate his Tesla stock holdings and his bank account if needed, in order to facilitate the trade. That is why, in my opinion, the probability that Elon Musk does not buy Twitter given that Elon Musk is ordered by the judge to buy Twitter is extremely low, probably below 10%. We can also take a look at what the Twitter stock itself says about this buyout since the stock is literally its own highly liquid makeshift prediction market about what will happen. The price of Twitter is currently trading at $42.19. If Twitter wins this case and Musk buys Twitter stock for $54.20, the price will increase by $12.01. If Musk wins this case and does not have to buy Twitter, I estimate that the stock will gap down to around $32.00 instantly. This would be a decrease of $10.19 from the current prices. Note that the price which Twitter would go to, given the deal falls through, is quite subjective. I derived my own estimate by looking at the volume profile and noticing that there is a substantial chunk of support around the $32 area, but others may think that the value should be higher or lower, and this would certainly impact their analysis of the probability. Given my assumption about Twitter going to $32 in the case of Musk winning is true, the implied probability of a buyout based on the stock price itself is actually a lot higher than the prediction markets and options markets. The reward is $12.01, and the risk is $10.19. The reward is 1.18 times larger than the risk, so this market says that a buyout is slightly less likely than no buyout. This sets the buyout odds at something like 46%. It's possible that in reality, the price would fall much further if the Twitter buyout failed, so this could explain the outlier in the implied probability. But it might also not explain it at all. It's not something you can know for sure one way or another. So really there are a lot of different markets, and all of them are pricing the probability of a Twitter buyout slightly differently. How can we take advantage of this? I would say, arbitrage is not really a super safe idea because many of these markets are slightly different in terms of their expiration date. Really it's just better to make sure you are placing your bets in the most efficient place. If you want to bet against a Twitter buyout, you should be shorting the highest implied probability asset. At the moment, that's Twitter stock. If you want to bet on a Twitter buyout, you should be buying the lowest implied probability asset. That's currently Polymarket, although the liquidity on there is not amazing. Myself I ended up buying a boatload of Twitter calls at a price of $0.35 because I thought they were dramatically undervalued. I will probably try to sell them now that the market has increased the price to a far more reasonable level, and simply move my Twitter buyout bets over from the options market onto Polymarket. This kind of transition will let me sell the higher implied probability asset and buy the lower implied probability asset, to get a better deal. Sadly the Polymarket pool does not have enough liquidity to match my size, so this strategy's effectiveness is limited. We hope you found this deep dive into Twitter buyout odds markets useful.
NYSE:TWTR
by bowtrix
TWITTER Ignore the HYPE! The real test is this level!Twitter (TWTR) is rising aggressively today following the Elon Musk news. If you filter out this noise you will see that the price approached the Lower Highs trend-line that first stared on the February 25 2021 market top. This has so far two clear rejections and if the stock doesn't close above it soon, we could get our third one. The RSI is above the overbought 70.000 level and every time it did so in the past 1.5 year, a sell-off followed. As you see, we could be having a Channel Up emerging on the shorter term. We can follow this and purse the Fibonacci retracement levels as targets if we break above the 0.382 Fib. This chart shows you that, even though the hype is great and can create more than +10% rises intra-day, the market has still learned to respect long-term trend-lines. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:TWTR
by TradingShot
2
TWTR: Most important key points to keep in mind!• It seems TWTR is inside an Ascending Triangle chart pattern, between the purple trend line which connects the previous bottoms since July 12, and the black line at $44.57 which worked as support/resistance multiple times in the past; • To whatever side TWTR breaks, it’ll probably do a strong movement in sequence; • By doing an upwards breakout, the target would be the next resistance at $51.19. By losing the trend line, the next support at $38.07 would be the next stop; • What could frustrate this pattern? Usually, triangles are frustrated when we see sideways breakout, as this ruins any future momentum. Therefore, it is important to see a reaction on TWTR as soon as possible. I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Remember to follow me for more analysis like this! Keep in touch.
NYSE:TWTR
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3