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TWTR trade ideas

TWTR , Leveraged buyout considerations So , I see a LOT of ideas on TWTR with price targets to the moon or above the $54.20 buyout price , and that is contrary to my understanding of buyouts . I am no pro, but I think that there seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about what to expect with TWTR going forward based on some ideas posted . So, I wanted to share some things about my understanding of the TWTR deal and LBO's. Essentially a LBO, or leveraged buyout , as far as I understand it ( and I like to practice " keep it simple stupid " ) is this: An investor wants to buy a company and take it private but wants to use mostly other peoples money . He does this by using leverage . As much leverage as possible ;) , the more leverage he is able to find to fund the deal the less funds he needs to personally provide. And for the buyer , that means more potential profits 💲 The company that is being bought and taken private actually funds part of the deal by applying to take on more debt , as much as is possible without putting the company out of business or being unable to responsibly pay the debt off after the LBO is completed . All the LBO deals have different terms but that one is very common . There is potentially also a combination of other things done to raise the cash , Private investments , and collateral loans, perhaps part of the payment will be made in another public companies shares that the buyer owns ect ect . If the LBO closes successfully the holders of the stock will receive the buyout price per share for their holdings and its a done deal . Typically the perceived risk of the buyout proposal failing vs succeeding is priced into the stock as soon as the deal is announced . The share buyout price , is typically a fair bit above trading price prior to announcement and when the buyout negotiation is announced this usually creates a gap up in the stock price bring it near the buyout price but still below it .Then, If all goes well , the price will move closer and closer to the buyout price agreed upon until eventually its a done deal and then shareholders will be paid the buyout price for their shares ( usually months ) . If the deal does not go through the price of the shares will likely fall and open with a big gap down ( but anything's possible in the stock market of course ) So now to the TWTR deal , some basics .... The deal is for 46.5 Billion total : - 13 billion is being provided by Twitter taking out loans ( approved ) -12.5 Billion is a loan taken out by Elon Musk by using his Tesla shares as collateral ( approved for now ) -21 Billion is agreed to be paid directly as cash AKA " equity commitments " ( approx 5.4 billion to go but close ) At the time of writing ( based on my research ) : Elon has recently sold 8.6 Billion of shares recently which I think is for the ( based on my adding from finviz info ) Elon has also acquired 7.1 Billion in private financing from investors This means he has about 15.6 billion already available out of the 21 billion needed for Equity commitment's ( I think he still needs to come up with about 5.4 Billion for this part but It's just a guess , either way he's already close ) He also already has approval for an additional 12.5 Billion from a margin loan using his Tesla shares too but they apparently need to stay above or very close to 740$ a share . My take So seems like this deal is pretty secure imo . The remaining 5.4 billion in equity commitments ( my educated guess ) should be easy for Elon to put together, its really not a huge sum in the grand scheme here . The one thing I could see, that is for sure a possibility, is a big drop in TSLA share price , after all we are in a bear market . The risk with a drop in TSLA share price is that for the 12.5 Billion margin loan Musk wants, TSLA shares need to stay above the $740 mark . In bear markets, its not uncommon to see equities drop 50%. The tide pulls everything down sometimes, and that's a very real possibility for TSLA . So , that being said, I decided to do a little bit of "what if" kind of thinking ... What if Musk's Margin loan using his shares falls through due to a dive in TSLA share price , well what I came up with is still imo supportive of the deal going through, no problem . Lets assume a really bad drop in TSLA price and that Musk would have to sell more shares to make up the 12.5 Billion in cash from share sales instead and lets assume that the average fill price Musk gets is only $400 a share . If that happened Musk would have to sell 44,750,000 shares with an average fill price of $400 a share, he has 162,963,251 shares of TSLA at this time . That would solve the problem even with a 50% plunge in TLSA share price and he would still retain 74% of his shares . I am not saying that TSLA share price is going to fall to 400 , but mostly just using it as an example that even an event like that would not threaten Elon's ability to make this happen , even if the collateral loan on his shares does happen to fall through , he's got this in the bag and I think this has personal meaning to him beyond a monetary sum .
NYSE:TWTREducation
by NAK1987
3
TWTR ! The price continues to accumulate energy in growthI attached a screenshot of the SPY chart in the lower left part (copies the movement of the SP500 index). The technical analysis of the index suggests that the price will continue to fall. The closest target is level 404 Twitter is growing at this time and trading in the local zone above the level of 49.2. The twitter chart is clearly stronger than the sp500 index, so I expect an increase I assume the price will rise from the level of 49.2 to the nearest resistance at 56.08. And in the medium or even long term up to the upper resistance of 66.8 Sincerely, R. Linda!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RLinda
10
Hidden Bearish Divergence on TwitterThe setup for Facebook is still looking quite Bullish as it's double bottomed and Reacted at the PCZ of the Bullish Cypher that can be seen in the related tab it's currently targeting a Gapfill to the upside; However Twitter is starting to look quite Bearish on the 4 hour and if it starts going down from here it will have confirmed Hidden Bearish Divergence on the Weekly which could very well send Twitter down to Fill the downside Gap at the very least but at the most it could go down all the way to the 88.6% Retracement.
NYSE:TWTRShort
by RizeSenpai
TWTR ! Twitter rises, SP500 fallsAn interesting situation with Twitter After falling and forming a trading range between 41 and 32, twitter was fully correlated with the SP500 index, but at the news release, twitter shares rise after the gap up and form an accumulation near the level of 49.2, while the index starts to decline, this means that the tweeter is someone it keeps the interests of this player very serious. waiting for growth My guess is that we may see Twitter shares rise to the nearest level of 56, and in the medium term to the upper resistance of 66.8 Sincerely, R. Linda!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RLinda
17
What up Elon!?The market bubble is crashing… Tesla, the proverbial needle, as Elon dumb $4B shares and suspends all production… So we all switch gears and ride the Twitter train to the moon with Elon and our Doge’s! Get that edit button done yesterday boys! The PINK trace is the path TWITTER was on. The YELLOW Trace is from the now dominant harmonic pattern… not scaled. . . . The ORANGE one is it scaled up a bit…. I get excited when i get to stretch a harmonic pattern… very enthusiastic amplification of the magnitude! :) Solid lines are the floor… dotted liens the ceiling…. It’s 3D… meditate on it, Some of my other posts cover larger time frames and are easier to see the whole picture… twitter is hard, a lot less history to reference… but it moves just like the rest of these graphs of human emotion. DOGE is my work of art :) Follow along for more… Good Luck, God Speed, Love & Light to all!
NYSE:TWTRLong
by DHLawrence
I don't believe him.It would be foolish of Elon Musk to buy the absolute sewer of social media. He would be leveraging TSLA shares and ultimately the company by borrowing the funds to secure this overpriced deal on money losing garbage TWTR. Bought 100 May 27th $51 puts in addition to this deal possibly not going through, I don't believe earnings will beat. TWTR is not efficient at monetizing it's septic tank of a platform. Nothing but hate, insults and bravado on twitter.
NYSE:TWTRShort
by ShortSeller76
29