United Health ready to break ATH??NYSE:UNH in this 450 - 550 range since 2021,
ER tomorrow morning
gapped up on the daily chart and now retesting the TL
if ER is good, and it breaks 550, its gonna go to 600, IMO....
3 years of compression
UNH trade ideas
ALERT! Healthcare Stocks? $UNH 70% decline! Sub $200 possible. I've been watching and keeping this quiet for a while now and I am now extremely confident of this trade. NYSE:UNH headed for the dumps as technicals show signs of a 70% decline ahead in the next year. This is a developing trade and I do not have any news to support this drop however, I am certain. The Weekly is currently in a bear flag the same exaact way. After a huge run, UNH looks to be running out of steam. The RSI matches around 70 on the 10D timeframe and the MACD is also coming from a negative area into bullish territory, yet the bearish divergence is clear imo. I will be glady entering long puts up here. I will continuously update this trade. See you Next year. Use this chart as a reference to current chart.
UNITEDHEALTH - In Pursuit of Both TargetsOn May 7, 2024, we published an analysis predicting a total appreciation of over +11% if both targets were reached. However, only one target was hit, resulting in a partial gain of +4.50%. Achieving a target with a partial realization of at least half the invested capital and protecting this result with a trailing stop is something to be valued. There is nothing wrong with that. The important thing is to exit the trade with a profit, as it is just one in a sequence. We cannot jeopardize the next trade by lamenting the past.
Within this philosophy, we now see the opportunity to try again, even though a short time has passed, to seek better performance in the same stock. This is not "stubbornness" but "perseverance" in overcoming setbacks with a successful experience. Such an approach tests our limits and fears, strengthening us as traders. Now, let’s develop our traditional risk management and organization for this operation:
If this projection is confirmed and a partial realization occurs at the first target, the stop loss should be moved from its initial position to the same line where the position was opened.
This way, the journey towards the final target will proceed with reduced risk of losses and the preservation of the partial gains achieved so far.
Follow us to receive notifications of new trades as well as frequent updates on ongoing trades.
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UnitedHealth Group a Shorting Opportunity or a Long-Term Gem?As the healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group (UNH) faces significant headwinds, recent trading patterns and technical indicators suggest a critical juncture for potential investors and traders. This comprehensive analysis delves into the latest chart movements, technical tools, and market sentiment to forecast potential price trajectories and strategic trading opportunities for UNH.
Market Overview and Recent Developments
UnitedHealth Group's stock is currently trading at $481.00, experiencing a slight decline of -0.73%. This drop follows the news of a MIL:1M fine imposed on the company for regulatory non-compliance, a development that has undoubtedly added to the recent bearish sentiment.
The latest candlesticks show a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend. The stock has struggled to maintain momentum above the $500 level, with resistance firmly established around $490 - $495.
Immediate support is identified at $475, a level tested multiple times in recent sessions. Resistance looms at $490, a barrier reinforced by recent price action and moving averages.
Moving Averages:
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 10, 20, and 30 days are all above the current price, each indicating a 'Sell' signal. This alignment typically suggests continued bearish pressure.
The 100 and 200-day EMAs also suggest a 'Sell', with values at $498.19 and $501.58 respectively. The alignment of these longer-term averages above the current price reinforces the bearish outlook.
Currently at 39.31, RSI is hovering near the oversold territory. This indicates that while the stock is under significant selling pressure, it may soon find some buying interest if the oversold condition persists.
The MACD (12, 26) is at -4.09, signaling a 'Sell' with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is negative, reinforcing the bearish trend.
The Stochastic %K is at 13.30, also indicating an oversold condition. This supports the potential for a short-term bounce.
Recent trading volumes are below the 30-day average, indicating lower participation in the current price moves. This can suggest weakening momentum, often preceding a reversal or consolidation phase.
The cash flow analysis highlights significant fluctuations with operating activities showing strength while investing and financing activities have varied widely.
Revenue continues to grow, particularly in its core segments: UnitedHealthcare and Optum, suggesting strong underlying business fundamentals despite the short-term technical weaknesses.
The broader market sentiment, as reflected in analyst ratings, shows a dichotomy. Despite the strong sell signals from technical indicators, analysts maintain a 'Strong Buy' stance, with a one-year price target set at $576.68, projecting a potential upside of nearly 20%.
Short Opportunity: Given the prevailing bearish indicators, a short position can be considered if the price breaks below $475 with a target near the next support at $460. Use a tight stop-loss above $490 to manage risk.
Long Opportunity: Watch for a potential reversal if the price bounces off the $475 support level and breaks above $490. This move, coupled with a shift in volume and momentum indicators, could set a short-term target around $510. Place a stop-loss just below $475 to mitigate downside risk.
Upside Potential: Aligning with the bullish analyst sentiment, if the stock manages to hold above $475 and breaks above the $500 level, the long-term price target could be set at $576.68. This aligns with both technical and fundamental strength in the company’s revenue and cash flow projections.
Downside Risk: Should the bearish momentum persist and the stock fails to hold above key supports, a deeper decline toward the $450 level is plausible. Long-term investors should keep an eye on the $465 level as a potential buy zone, provided the broader fundamentals remain intact.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) presents a complex yet intriguing picture for traders and investors. The current technical landscape suggests caution with strong bearish signals, but underlying financial strength and market sentiment provide a silver lining. Whether to short or long UNH hinges on the upcoming price action around the critical $475 and $490 levels. Stay vigilant, set your stops, and align your strategies with your risk tolerance and market outlook.
UNH - Increase in Valuation ProbabilityHealthcare companies stand out in this week's filter of opportunities. Alignment and compression of Fibo Clouds was once again the filter that allowed us to see this opportunity.
Risk Return 3
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UNH - Keeping it simple for 20+ R:R tradesJust keep it simple!
Let me know when you start to see it!
Happy Trading :)
- TraderDaddyOG
UNH ShortUNH is meeting downtrend line resistant and 200MA here. I would short it here with.a clear stop above the downtrend line or 200MA break.
Missed buying at support level, UNH offers 2nd chance nowPlease DYODD
This is where I am planning to go LONG for this stock. Probably towards Q2-Q3 , hopefully earlier, I expect to see some form of sector rotation with tech stocks retreating and the healthcare stocks coming back into the limelight. This would be a good time to accumulate.
Investors Await Q1 ReportKey arguments in support of the idea.
▪ UNH stock has come under pressure from a series of adverse events,
though Q1 earnings may improve investor sentiment regarding further
UNH business growth potential.
▪ A good moment for buying, both fundamentally and technically.
Investment Thesis
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) engages in the provision of health insurance,
software, and related consulting services. UNH is the largest provider of
healthcare plans in the US.
In Early 2024, UNH’s Stock Came Under Pressure from Several
Adversities at Once . First, it is a cyberattack on Change Healthcare
services, that led to a temporary freeze on payments from medical
organizations. At the time of finalizing this report, UnitedHealth informed
that services were restored, and that it did not expect big implications for
financial results. However, market participants fear a one-time negative
impact on profitability in Q1 2024.
Shortly after the cyberattack, it was reported that the US Department of
Justice had initiated an antitrust investigation for examining the strength of
relationship between UnitedHealth’s insurance and medical business
divisions. The impact of the investigation is uncertain, and we do not
believe it to influence the stock in the short term.
Investors Were Disappointed by CMS’ Final Decision on Medicare
Advantage (MA) Payment Rates. On April 2, MA plan rate rises for 2025
compared to 2024 became finally known. The payout rate remained at the
proposed level of 3.7% y/y, disappointing investors looking for a bigger
increase. This caused a negative market reaction: UNH, the largest player,
ended the April 2 trading with a 9.3% drop. Some other major stocks
reacted that day accordingly: HUM (-13.4%), CVS (-7.2%), ELV (-3.3%).
The worsened MA business revenue expectations for 2025 are already
reflected in prices. However, the Optum segment’s organic growth
(OptumHealth, OptumInsight, and OptumRx) remains a strong point of the
Company and may support its Q1 2024 results that will be released on
April 16.
Expectations for Q1 Report. We think that investors will be focused on the
guidance for 2024. Management’s confirmation or improvement of the
existing guidance could dispel investor worries. Besides, we expect a
detailed commentary on the impact of the cyberattack and the MA rate
decision on financial results.
Now Is a Good Time to Buy. The P/E NTM ratio has decreased to 15.8,
which is lower than the Company’s all-time average of 18.8. The RSI has
dropped below 30 points, signaling a likely reversal. We consider UNH
shares’ current weakness as a good opportunity to buy, assuming that (1)
the impact of the approved MA 2025 rate is already reflected in prices, (2)
the cyberattack will have a one-time insignificant implication for UNH, and
(3) there is still a high demand in the MA market, and UNH remains the
largest and growing provider of healthcare plans.
The target price for UNH over a 2-month horizon is $495, which
corresponds to P/E NTM of 18. We recommend Buying and setting a
Stop Loss at $415.
UnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Surges after Strong ReportUnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Surges after Strong Report
UnitedHealth shares surged Tuesday, rising more than 5% after the health care giant delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2024 results:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 6.91, expected = USD 6.61, last quarter = USD 6.16;
→ gross income: actual = USD 94.4 billion, expected = USD 92.1 billion.
UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Whitty said health care costs rose sharply last year, and he attributed much of the rise to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Also adding positive news to investors was UnitedHealth Group's handling of the Feb. 21 cyberattack on its Change Healthcare subsidiary, which disrupted hospital and pharmacy operations for more than a week and cost an estimated USD 872 million.
Technical analysis of the UNH stock chart shows that:
→ starting in 2022, the price moves within the range between support at USD 450 and resistance at USD 550 per share;
→ false breakouts of the indicated levels occurred repeatedly;
→ as a result of the publication of the report, another false breakdown of support was formed at USD 450 per UNH share;
→ growth after the report occurred with a gap in the area of USD 450-465, which can serve as support;
→ it is possible that a test of the gap will form on the chart and growth will at least reach the mid-channel level of USD 500 per share.
According to analysts surveyed by TipRank, the average price forecast for UMH shares is USD 591.29 in 12 months (more than +25% from the current price).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UnitedHealth Shares Surge 4.91% on Q1 Earnings UpdateUnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ), the titan of the health insurance industry, emerged triumphant in the face of daunting challenges as it delivered a stellar performance in its first-quarter earnings update. Despite grappling with a surge in medical payouts and the financial fallout from a crippling cyberattack, UnitedHealth's resilience shone through, propelling its shares to a robust 4.91% surge in early trading.
Earnings Beat and Resilience:
UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) reported adjusted earnings of $6.91 per share for the first quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by 30 cents. The impressive 10.4% year-over-year growth underscored the company's ability to navigate turbulent waters while maintaining its upward trajectory.
Revenue Strength and Optum Dominance:
Bolstered by robust revenue figures, UnitedHealth showcased its financial prowess with group revenues surging 8.55% to $99.8 billion. Notably, Optum, the crown jewel of UnitedHealth's empire, saw its revenue soar 22.2% to $61.1 billion, cementing its position as the primary engine of the group's earnings growth.
Medical Cost Challenges and Cyberattack Fallout:
Amidst the triumph, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) faced headwinds in the form of rising medical costs, reflected in a nearly 2-percentage-point increase in the medical-cost ratio to 84.3%. Furthermore, the company grappled with the aftermath of the Blackcat cyberattacks, which inflicted an $872 million blow to its Change Healthcare unit. Despite these setbacks, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) remained steadfast in its commitment to delivering value to its stakeholders.
Outlook and Forward Momentum:
CEO Andrew Witty reaffirmed UnitedHealth's full-year adjusted earnings forecast, projecting a range between $27.50 and $28 per share. However, the company acknowledged the looming impact of the cyberattack, with potential costs soaring to as high as $1.6 billion for the year. Despite these challenges, Witty emphasized the company's unwavering focus on enhancing customer experiences and driving balanced growth.
Market Response and Sector Challenges:
The market responded enthusiastically to UnitedHealth's resilience, with shares surging 7.75% in pre-market trading. However, the broader healthcare sector faces mounting pressures, including tepid Medicare Advantage payment increases and regulatory scrutiny on pharmacy-benefit managers. Nonetheless, UnitedHealth's robust performance signals a beacon of hope amidst the industry's tumultuous landscape.
The importance of identifying our control algorithmHere you can see the slightest difference between orange controlled buying and magenta controlled selling - but the fact that magenta has proven control over the past 2 bounces indicates that magenta is in control and this is in fact a larger liquidity build for the bulls.
Helpful to know this for all future analysis!
Happy Trading :)
- TraderDaddyOG
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UNH before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 440usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $10.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) - Technical Analysis UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) exhibits technical deterioration as observed in the recent trading sessions. The stock closed at $441.72, experiencing a 1.85% decline. The bearish sentiment is reinforced post-market, with the stock slipping further to $443.00.
The technical layout suggests a continuation of the downward trajectory. The price action has decisively breached below the Ichimoku Cloud, a bearish signal indicating that sellers are currently in control. The Cloud’s future span also slopes downward, reinforcing this negative outlook.
The Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the swing high at $496.20 to the swing low at $431.58, indicate that the price has struggled to reclaim even the 23.6% level at $480.15, showing a lack of bullish momentum. The subsequent support levels at 0.382 ($471.52) and 0.5 ($463.89) have failed to catalyze a rebound, with the current price action hovering just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $456.26, which may serve as the next support.
The RSI is deep in the oversold territory at 24.36, often considered an area where a potential reversal could occur. However, the continued presence in this region without a significant bounce raises concerns about persistent selling pressure.
The MACD remains below the signal line and has widened negatively, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. The absence of a bullish crossover on this oscillator suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The OBV shows a sharp volume increase on down days, highlighting an aggressive distribution phase. This points to a strong conviction among sellers and is often a precursor to further declines if the pattern persists.
Given the bearish technical indicators coupled with the proximity of the next earnings report in four days, traders may expect heightened volatility. The earnings report could act as a pivotal event that either exacerbates the downtrend or triggers a relief rally if the company’s performance exceeds market expectations.
Speculatively, should the earnings report provide a positive surprise, resistance levels to watch in a bounce scenario would be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $456.26 followed by the 0.5 level at $463.89. Conversely, a disappointing report could see the stock testing the 0.786 level at $445.41, with further downside potentially exposing the $431.58 swing low.
Investors should brace for increased volatility and trade cautiously, with protective stops and close attention to the forthcoming earnings release, which will likely dictate the short-term trend for UNH’s stock price.
UNH near significant bottomUNH is correcting the cycle from Mar 2020 and is near a significant bottom. Most likely it will bounce followed by a marginal low. Great generational long opportunity, with stop set at 409.
Good enter pointNYSE:UNH reached 450 $ recently.
From December 2021 never reached bellow this level. It tried 450 $ six times and bounced back to 550 $. From December 2021 NYSE:UNH is is swing in a channel between 450 and 550 $.
In weekly chart, it is on 200 days moving average, which seems a very strong support. From December 2021 it always trades above 200 days moving average. In march 2020 it touched the moving average, however, it bounced back and moved higher.
I believe NYSE:UNH could easily reach 500 $ in near future and 500 $ is not out of reach.
I set my stop loss at 435 $.
Good luck to everybody.
UnitedHealth: Recovery? 🩹UnitedHealth shares have now dipped into the green Target Zone between $447.18 and $470.19. This is the price range in which we expect the low of the green wave (B) and thus a reversal. We therefore now expect a rise to above $495.87. At 40%, however, we think it is likely that the price will slip below the zone again and the low of the green wave alt.(B) will end somewhat lower.
UNH Long?Been stuck in this range for a while. Looks oversold with bullish divergence on the daily chart at the bottom of the range.
Medicare Advantage Rates Shake Health Insurers:The healthcare sector witnessed a significant upheaval as UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) and other major players tumbled following the Biden Administration's announcement regarding Medicare Advantage rates for 2025. The unexpected decision sent shockwaves through the industry, prompting a flurry of market activity and sparking concerns among investors.
Impact on Health Insurers:
The Biden Administration's announcement that final Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 will remain unchanged from initial plans in January dealt a blow to major health insurers, particularly UnitedHealth and Humana. Both companies, as leading Medicare Advantage players, experienced substantial declines in their stock prices, with Humana plunging 9.4% and UnitedHealth sinking 4% in premarket trading.
Market Response and Investor Sentiment:
The market response was swift and decisive, with other health insurers such as CVS Health and Cigna also witnessing notable retreats in their stock prices. CVS Health, a significant Medicare Advantage player, saw its stock retreat by 4% overnight, while Cigna experienced a 1.1% dip early Tuesday. Smaller players in the Medicare Advantage market, including Centene and Molina Healthcare, were not spared from the downturn, reflecting the broad impact of the announcement on the industry.
Technical Outlook and Bearish Trend:
UnitedHealth's stock is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, underscored by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.88 and trading below its respective Moving Averages (MA). This technical analysis further validates the bearish sentiment surrounding NYSE:UNH stock and highlights the challenges it faces in the current market environment.
Implications for the Healthcare Sector:
The Biden Administration's decision regarding Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 has far-reaching implications for the healthcare sector, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and impacting revenue streams for major insurers. As companies navigate this period of uncertainty, strategic agility and resilience will be crucial in mitigating risks and seizing opportunities amidst evolving market dynamics.
UNH WEEKLY CHART United Health Care makes up 8.52% of XLV the health care ETF. If you go look at the ETF it's making new highs, while its second largest weighting is still trading in range. My question is how long does UNH continue trading in this sideways range its been in?
UNITED HEALTH Time to buy again?Last time we looked into United Health (UNH) we gave a strong buy signal (October 03 2023, see chart below), which turned out to be very successful:
After getting rejected on Resistance 3, the stock started to decline structurally within a Channel Down. It is a pattern similar to the Channel Down of November 2022 - March 2023, which was again formed after UNH got rejected within the 2-year Resistance Zone, like it happened this time.
There is a high symmetry these past 2 years within the Resistance and Support Zones, so we expect the price to act accordingly. As a result, having already formed a 1D Death Cross, we expect the price to make one last Low towards the Support Zone (as long as the 1D MA50 holds as Resistance) and then rebound, which is what took place on March 10 2023, above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will time our buy accordingly and target $517.00 (Fib 0.618). An additional buy signal would be if the 1W RSI makes a Double Bottom, similar again to March 10 2023.
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UnitedHealth Weekly Wyckoff in progressWe can observe a weekly Wyckoff in place for UnitedHealth.
I have Two possible scenario
1) The price took the weekly liquidity (External Liquidity) and can now go Up until reaching "BC" at least
2) The price will go down and take frist the "STB" to make a "SPRING" and then will go UP until the "BC"
On my side I prefer to keep observing as the price can be slide in this kind of structure.
