The apathetic bearHow many bears remain in this market? I gave up last fall after trying to time this since 2020. Moved the little I have left (after bear roasting for years & years) into bonds & GICs.
No matter what, I am just paralyzed from being able to press the buy button. Why do markets still look so incongruent? Why do so many sectors including this wilshire still look like a bear? In fact, the greatest bear in history? Yet tech and industrials are flying out of orbit? Why is so much in real life becoming unaffordable? Why are the downtown streets of my city filling with homeless people? What about the wars? Such is the commencement of a new bull?
I don't really have confidence to make any statement either way. I am very tired.
Apathy. The apathetic bear. It sinks its teeth in one day, then falls asleep the next.
There is no way to invest in this game, not to mention, trade.
I threw away all my trading tools months ago.
Sometimes I still think about it.
But really, all I have left is this continued sinking feeling that it still don't feel good.
W4500 trade ideas
Wilshire forms long term death cross, riding the gates of HadesWhile most people have eyes fixated on the ever elusive AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ , completely skewed by the movement of the 7 generals (FAANG-MT) and a few other giant outliers like NASDAQ:NVDA , the broader Wilshire index has been riding along the gates of hell for nearly a year. Both the 10WMA and 50WMA have triggered the death cross with the 200WMA. MMT induced inflation is still sky high, public economic numbers seem to be on an overdose high while true fundamentals are crumbling beneath the surface, resulting in sudden unexpected and chaotic events such as the fall of TSX:SVB and $CS. Credit debt, CLOs, CMOs, leveraged loans, and derivatives positioning are at casino gambling levels beyond all known history that the only word one could use is - insanity.
How many have tried to drive a car with a broken engine, a bicycle with no chain or repair an apartment floor whose foundation complex is cracked and sinking into the ground? I believe these are realistic analogs to the fantasy MMT drugged stock market and, as much as this thing likes to crush the bears over and over again, eventually a reality connected to fundamentals, the people, the land, its resources and life sustaining food will return.
What I observe is that if the Wilshire falls through the gates of hell below, then the entire fantasy land could crumble. Where to? Well, if we have broken the 10WMA, 50WMA and 200WMA, then the natural next targets would be 50MMA and 200MMA which are off the charts, far far far below.
As for positioning, I always say NASDAQ:CASH is best. Maybe some $GICs now with soaring interesting rates; and possibly bonds. Finally, if you dare to be a bear then short it; but know that the current will almost always be against you. Gamble for the very short term 0DTE or very long term (4-16 months out) and know you can possily lose it all still. GL.
MAJOR SHIFT FROM BULL TO A PANIC INTO DEC 24/26 I HAVE THREE LONG TERM AND I.T SPIRALS FROM PANICS IN THE PAST DUE TO BOTTOM ON OR ABOUT DEC 24 /26 THEN A RETEST ON 1/7 2021 I FEEL THE BULL MARKET IS NEAR AN END AS THE NEXT MASSIVE WAVE OF DEFLATION IS INTO OCT 2021 .I HAVE A BEGINNING OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE E.U. STARTING NOW AS WELL AS A CRASH CYCLE IN GOLD INTO MAY 2021
Wilshire 4500- You are not in the crystal ball businessWhat a crazy time we are in. 5 months ago, all was gloom and doom. Last month, almost every asset class was up except USD.
SP500 has been above 3200 for one month and Nasdaq has been hitting ATH for 3 straight months.
How do you explain this market irrationality?
One possible reason is that pension, endowment funds and investors are forced to invest in equity market in the ultra low-interest environment.
According to AAII (American association of individual investors) asset allocation's survey in July, 33.6% is invested in stock funds and 28.6% is invested
in stocks. Only 3.4% is invested in bonds.
According to Nomura, growth stocks have been outperforming value stocks for the last 15 years . Investor's penchant for fast growth and high valuation
stocks lead to more velocity and volatility.
According to Chris Irons of QTR research, holding period for stock has been steadily dropping over the past two decades. In the last two months, the
stock holding period has gone down from 8 and half months to 5 and half months. In the current environment, market is flooded with high momentum
stocks and the lure of chasing the rainbow is driving the increasingly common day trading mentality. Such volatile atmosphere typically leads to more
FOMO behaviors.
It makes even more sense if you factor in the wide availability of zero commission and fractional trading. Positive vaccine news may have also lifted the
investor sentiment and contributed to the irrational exuberance.
Has the market factored in all the bad news as it was mostly immune to the record-shattering bad GDP and resurgence of Covid-19 cases in July? Despite the poor GDP #, most other economic indicators actually improved including the ones I showed in the chart.
Stock market momentum may stall, or it may even crash in the near future. However, at this point, I believe it will take extraordinary events such as hyperinflation, weakening of dollar (lose of reserve status), sovereign debt crisis, massive eviction or consumer debt default to go back to March low. With programs like PPE and massive QE to infinity in place, FED will ensure that interest rate remains low and continue to bail out zombie company in order to keep unemployment lvl artificially low.
Thanks for reading through my analysis. Please follow me and click like. Much appreciated.
Wilshire ReboundThe sentiment is supporting the bull and price about to leave the oversold condition in the leading indicator. Equity market doing well recently from yesterday after market optimistic by $2 trillion in virus relief largest economic stimulus package seeks to give families and businesses a financial shield against the new coronavirus pandemic.
