$ZIM Clearly institutions and funds buying agressivelyNYSE:ZIM has huge "towers" volume as seen in weekly and daily charts. Super bullish.
ZIM trade ideas
$ZIM Long - Profitable Q1 in sightHaven't looked at NYSE:ZIM for some time but entered a small position at $9.60 and added this morning at $11.00. looking for 3 targets up to golden zone if pressure on freight rates continue due to Red Sea and Suez Canal issues. Spot rates are in a profitable area for carriers, especially carriers with ZIM's low overhead and there are multiple GRI's, PSS, and Emergency surcharges coming down the pipe for Q1.
Timeline: Looking to get this done no later than end of March due to Reverse Repo market likely drained to zero by then, which is when I will be exiting markets or at least getting in best defensive position for a hard landing.
What is fueling ZIM Stock's Run?Zim Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE: ZIM) is gaining momentum with ZIM stock rising 43% since mid-December. However, it is still down 90% on the year.
However, this low float stock has caught the attention of investors due to a number of factors including its short squeeze potential and its position to benefit from ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial ships passing through the Red Sea.
With management announcing plans to address the company's underlying issues, ZIM stock could be poised for a huge recovery in 2024 if the container shipping industry continues to benefit from these geopolitical tensions.
ZIM Stock Background
Zim Integrated Shipping Services, together with its subsidiaries, is an Israeli company that provides container shipping and related services in Israel and internationally. It provides door-to-door and port-to-port transportation services for various types of customers, including end-users, consolidators, and freight forwarders. The company also offers ZIMonitor, a premium reefer cargo tracking service.
Zim achieved a great deal of success during the pandemic thanks to global lockdowns which drove consumers to online shopping. Americans alone spent $1.7 trillion online from 2020 to 2022. That’s a massive $609 billion more than the two years before Covid-19, representing a 55% increase in online spending.
This online shopping spree drove demand for shipping, increasing the cost of transporting containers globally. Thanks to increased shipping demand, ZIM delivered 2.5 years of great financial results from mid-2020 through 2022, including net income of nearly $10 billion.
ZIM also offered high dividends of around $2.00 to $2.50 per share in 2021. Retail investors were obviously drawn to ZIM's high dividends and ZIM stock surged 830% from February 2021 to March 2022.
Post-Pandemic
ZIM stock came crashing down when lockdowns were lifted in most countries and people started making up for lost time during the pandemic. Consumer behavior changed drastically as people started spending more money on services rather than goods. As a result, Americans spent $11.6 trillion on services, compared to $5.9 trillion on goods in 2022.
For Zim, this meant lower freight rates as well as declining volume. If you look at Zim’s 2022 Q3 results and check the company’s revised 2022 full-year guidance, you’d see that the company was projecting a decline in freight rates, softer demand, and flatter volume compared to 2021.
As a result, ZIM stock dropped by more than 70% in 2022, and its net income in Q4 2022 was $417 million, compared to $1.71 billion in Q4 2021.
The company attempted to salvage the situation in April then August of 2022, when it raised its dividend yield to near 20% and 40% respectively. However, Zim was forced to pause its dividends after it recorded a loss of $58 million in Q1 2023. The second quarter of 2023 also saw a loss of $213 million, while the third quarter’s loss equaled a massive $2.27 billion. Now, Zim’s forward dividend is equal to zero.
The Houthi Attacks
A new conflict started between Israel and Hamas in October of this year, and since Zim is an Israeli company operating in the region it has had exposure to the conflict. ZIM stock fell roughly 30% since the attack happened until the end of November.
As the conflict progressed through November and December, the Shia Islamist Houthi group in Yemen started attacking commercial ships passing through the Red Sea. These strikes are meant to cause economic pain on Israel’s allies that pass through the Red Sea for trade, and force them to put pressure on Israel to allow aid into Gaza and end the war.
It was during this time that major shipping companies, including Maersk (CPH: MAERSK-B), Hapag-Lloyd (OTCMKTS: HPGLY), and Evergreen (NASDAQ: EVGR), announced that they would pause shipping through the Red Sea amid fears of Houthi attacks. Additionally, the oil company BP (NYSE: BP) said that it would do the same, a move that caused oil and gas prices to surge.
Following these companies, Zim has also announced that it will be taking measures to ensure the safety of its crews, vessels, and customers' cargo by rerouting some of its vessels. As a result, ZIM stock, as well as the stocks of many other shipping companies, surged on the news.
Hapag-Lloyd stock advanced 16% in Frankfurt trading, while Maersk rose 7.9% in Copenhagen. On the other hand, ZIM stock increased more than 35% in early December.
Investors' sentiment reversed since shipping companies are being forced to take the much longer route around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. Taking this much longer route will no doubt increase costs significantly, however, these increased costs can be passed on to consumers as shipping companies raise prices. Raising costs due to the security risks and longer route could result in higher profits for shipping companies which is why public shipping companies like ZIM are seeing some momentum.
A Potential Short Squeeze?
Besides this catalyst, ZIM stock has increased as much as 75% in December, marking its strongest monthly performance in more than 2 years.
Yet, ZIM's short interest has reached 24% which is near the highest level in at least 3 years. This level of short interest and momentum from retail traders which own 59% of the roughly 95 million float could force shorts to cover their short positions.
Notably, short sellers have made over $100 million so far this year in ZIM stock, but they have lost $63 million in December. This combination of factors could make ZIM stock ripe for a short squeeze.
Technical Analysis
Looking at the hourly timeframe for ZIM stock, we can see that it's been trading in a downwards channel for some time. The stock increased on higher than average trading volume and tested the resistance at $12.01 before pulling back.
When looking at the indicators, ZIM stock is trading above the 200 MA but recently dropped below the the 50 MA. The 50 and 200 MAs recently crossed over forming a golden cross which could signal a bullish shift in trend. After becoming overbought, the RSI recalibrated on the pullback and is neutral at 47.26.
With ZIM stock trading just below the 50 MA, it could either successfully break out above it or drop lower after failing to break through. Traders bullish on ZIM stock should wait for a successful breakout above and retest of the 50 MA before taking a position. Whereas, bears can go short if the break out fails and short ZIM stock based on its bearish fundamentals.
Is ZIM Stock a Good Investment?
While in the short term, ZIM stock could continue to rally, in the long term its outlook is quite different. During the Q3 earnings call, Zim’s management team made it clear that the company is following strategic plans with a strong focus on the long-term to help Zim return to profitability.
One of these plans is returning some of its vessels. Zim is classified as a light-assets company, meaning that it doesn’t own all of its vessels, but just rents them. By the end of 2022, Zim had 150 vessels in its fleet, of which 9 were owned by the company and 141 were rented.
Some of Zim’s leases on these vessels are expiring in 2024 and 2025. As is, the company plans on not renewing them to reduce its capacity and costs thereby strengthening revenues and profitability. While this will be a slow process, with roughly 2 years before the leases expire, it’s still a move in the right direction.
Another thing management did was use the profits earned during the pandemic - around $10 billion of net income - to pay off a lot of debt. Additionally, this period of profitability led to a significant cash balance of over $3 billion in Q3. This means that the company has a healthy balance sheet and isn’t facing the risk of running out of money anytime soon.
Zim’s long-term plans also include a fleet renewal program secured through a series of charter agreements. The company invested in 46 newly built container ships, of which 28 are powered by liquified natural gas, which is natural gas that has been cooled into a liquid form and faces no risk of exploding if there is any sort of leak or spill. It is also considered a cleaner source of energy than oil and coal. This allows Zim to have a younger, more fuel and cost efficient fleet by 2025, ultimately reducing its costs and increasing its competitiveness.
In order to achieve this, Zim entered a strategic supply agreement with Shell in order to secure liquified natural gas at competitive prices. The company also bought almost $1 billion worth of containers with a particular focus on reefer propositions. According to CEO Eli Glickman, the company now owns the youngest reefer fleet in the industry, which will allow it to compete for high-value cargo.
Zim’s management has also tried to reassure investors by sharing that Israel accounts for only 10% of the company’s volume. Even though Zim isn’t stopping its operations in Israel or near it, investors will be relieved to know that 90% of the company’s business isn’t in an area of war.
ZIM Stock Forecast
When looking at Zim’s 2023 full-year guidance, we can see that the company projects an adjusted EBIT loss of $400 million to $600 million, expects a continued weakness in freight rates with no recovery from current levels, a slight decline in the company’s YoY, and higher than previously projected bunker costs.
While it’s unlikely that Zim’s new plans will help it achieve profitability anytime soon, but they could help reduce costs and return the company to efficiency and a better cash flow.
Speaking of cash flow, it’s important to note that despite losing money Zim is still achieving positive cash flow from operations, totaling $338 million in Q3. This is a good sign for the company, since its losses can be reduced after it reduces its long-term assets like the vessels, and therefore reduce non-cash expenses like depreciation.
In the income statement, you have to record non-cash expenses such as depreciation for long-term assets, but it’s not necessarily a cash outflow. So, even though Zim is losing money, it’s still generating cash inflow which is a good thing.
Overall, the company’s management team is competent and its plans to return to profitability are solid, but the company faces geopolitical risks and the impact of changing consumer behavior. The latter is still a persisting problem, one which Zim’s management admitted they had expected it to reverse sooner.
In light of these factors, ZIM stock appears to be a high risk investment, at least in the short-term. But if its management's plans come to fruition, it could see a strong recovery once consumer behavior returns to its normal balance.
Retest of IPO pricePrice has been in a descending wedge for a long time. A breakout target to the red horizontal line as it serves as major resistance. This was the IPO price as well.
Wait for $10 to go long I'm currently waiting for price to get down into the $10 range, so I can go long. Right now it's trading in a falling wedge and MACD is curling up to the upside.
My ZIM Q2 Earnings Short PlanThat is my first swing short position.
I was going to share this plan yesterday but didn't have the time to post. As of Monday August 14th, the plan was to see if we have an uptrend or a downtrend before the earnings on August 16th (tomorrow).
The plan was to see where we gonna go today. If we have stalled, I would only enter after earnings.
But today, we broke my support area pretty sharply around the ~$13.50 price. I entered a short position at $13.39.
This year isn't going well for ZIM, and based on Zacks Consensus Estimate and other analysts, the current catalyst is missed earnings with a potential quarterly loss of $0.88 per share, which will represent a year-over-year change of -108%.
My plan is to exit my short position around the next support level of ~$12.30, which would be a ~7.30% for the trade.
As usual, this is my no mean recommendation. I decided to start using TradingView more as my personal-public journal to hold myself accountable for a trading plan and share ideas and get feedback. Happy to get your thoughts on the above, of course. Thanks!
$ZIM is looking more bullish each day!The market is showing signs of a potential small breakout on the bullish side for ZIM, which indicates a possible upward movement in its stock price.
If you're specifically interested in dividend stocks, ZIM appears to be an attractive option as it is consistently gaining momentum and boasts significant dividend yield percentages.
The key level to watch closely is the dotted (- - - -) line at around $14.56. If ZIM's stock price manages to break above this level, it could serve as a clear signal for a potential upward trend in the near future. However, it's important to note that there might be some resistance at this level, so market participants should keep an eye on the stock's performance closely.
Moreover, the 4-hour chart for NYSE:ZIM is displaying a bullish pattern, further supporting the notion of a potential bullish run in the coming days.
It's essential to stay updated with the latest developments as the financial report for ZIM is scheduled to be released in August. This report could be a significant catalyst for the stock and may lead to further price movements.
As the situation unfolds, the post will be updated with more information to confirm whether a clear upward trend has indeed formed for $ZIM. For now, it's advised to closely monitor the stock's performance as it could become an interesting and potentially lucrative opportunity in the near future.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.78.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$ZIM can show a longNYSE:ZIM potentially touched the bottom.
We are observing creation of the reversed double bottom + divergence on the 1h time range.
Expectation, that it will brake a downward channel and will start moving to 16.
Does not constitute a recommendation
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs
ZIM up 26% NYSE:ZIM is on rocket ride. The stock is up approximately 25% in past 30 days looking forward to retest of gap fill and resistance zone around 18.5
STRONG BULLISH TECHNICALS FOR $ZIM, LOOKS READY TO MAKE S LARGE The downtrend was halted by a high volume absorption pin bar, and supply has diminished significantly ever since.
The last two candles consists of a giant bear bar with no follow through, followed by a Super high volume doji.
A head and shoulder pattern has formed with the said pinbar been the left shoulder.
For now there is a large rsi divergence and rising momentum
ZIM Long IdeaZIM and the shipping industry has just come out of a massive bubble and all shipping lines are finding their feet. ZIM made earnings last quarter which was one of the roughest yet.. the recent GRI of around $600/FEU Trans-Pac should put carriers back into the green and they will try their best to hold rates around this level via blank sailings and volume control. This is a dangerous game but ZIM fundamentals (ship / space leasing) have proven extremely successful as volume dried up and carriers bringing in massive container ships are baring the brunt of the blow.
TA looks like a bull div on LTF (4hr) and sitting at the lows for a double bottom. If buying low selling high is a thing.... any lower than this and ZIM sinks so clear S/R level.
Long term looking for 238 fib level but this feels like a good entry depending on macro
Possible Breakout of ZIMQuintessential rounded bottom formation. Breakout target to ~ 28, subsequent pull back to break out trendline. This pattern is a tread reversal hallmark. It will make a fantastic swing trade if it plays out, but an even better long term investment.
Not financial advice.
ZIM a contrarian playZIM has run through a perfect tailwind momentum, increasing its revenues from roughly 3B to around 10B due to the supply chain disruption and energy situation in Europe / Asia.
Assuming its revenues will drop back to 4B, the company might still be profitable and the valuations could look attractive.
If the company manages a better than expected EPS and better outlook (than estimated), then this stock could be a double bagger.
Risk is limited to a potential 5:1 Reward, which makes it a very interesting proposition.
#notfinacialadvise. Size your position accordingly.
ZIM - Bullish Cup an Handle FormationNYSE:ZIM
LONG Idea based cup and handle bullish formation coming out of a nice base after a MAJOR downtrend break.
Is $ZIM forming a cup and handle?Based on the price movement this looks like "cup and handle" NYSE:ZIM to me
Will ZIM Ship Up?Will ZIM Ship Up?
ZIM has a falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe!
A cup was also identified inside of the falling wedge pattern. The stock looks prime for a move to the upside after we form a handle to the cup that formed just under the daily resistance line. I expect a handle to form in confluence with price rejection at the trendline.
The daily chart as of 4 February 2023 shows that we have too many buyers at the line of resistance. Therefore, I expect a selloff (creation of the handle) and in turn less buyers (which is what we want) before the break of the line of resistance. After the line breaks, we will see more buyers step in to then push us up above the handle and line of resistance (daily trendline).
However, it's understood that price could push through the line of resistance and hold above it. If it price holds above the line, then the stock will be inside of a gap that has not filled.
ZIM has a gap between 23-25.42. The stock gapped down on 28 November 2022.
ZIM closed at 22.85 on 3 February 2023.
*This is not financial advice.
Akili,
MrALtrades00
Potential ZIM breakout trade setupHere's a trade setup I've been waiting for to get ripe for a while. ZIM: the dividend IPO pump n dump darling.
It has some ridiculous fundamentals with currently a book/share of 48.4 and a cash/share of 26.12 along with a crazy 166% dividend: finviz.com
It has been following this linear regression trend on the way down, just as well as on the way up. And now it is making a large wedge (orange) that looks to me like it is ready to breakout soon.
We also got some positive divergence on the MACD and RSI. There's also a long-term resistance line developed on the RSI that I'm watching as potential resistance. One of the RSI lines will have to be broken in the coming months and I'd expect that'll be a big move in what ever direction that will be.
Now as for bearish patterns, it is forming a pattern that looks like a bear flag (blue), so there is the risk of the flag being broken and it continues the trend lower. This one also likes to gap up and down, so there is the risk of stopping out lower than my stop.
If it breaks out, I'm hoping for a rally to the low 20s and will exit there, as it will be hitting the top of the regression trend, increasing risk substantially. You can also see there are a lot of bag-holders at that price based on the Fixed Range Volume Profile so they will likely want to sell at those prices.
My stop is quite loose at 15.78 since zim is a wild one, and if it's going to be an uptrend, I would not expect it to go much below the previous lows.
If my target is reached, I'd then watch on the sidelines to see if it is primed to break out of the regression trend, creating an epic rally. The broader market conditions will have to be in a good situation next year for such an event to happen.
I got a bit excited this morning and bought at 17.41, now it is an even lower price, closer to where I originally wanted to buy lol. But the risk-reward ratio I have for myself is 2.55, not too shabby!
Note: I chart this with the chart adjusted for dividends because they make such a large impact on the chart and I've noticed that my old zim chart is now all messed up because of this, so the published chart appears to get less accurate as time goes on.
ZIM: NEUTRAL with one Eye on China.During the last part of the year already passed, we saw a downward trend of this stock.
Many factors can associate with this downward trend, such as the decrease in demand for the transport of goods between Europe, USA, and China, and the news of the coming recession had led to the bear trend of this stock and its fall. Now the interest on this stock seems to be reducing and the movement of the price is no longer the same as before. We can see from the body of the candles, that is starting to be small, and the drop in the price is no longer intense as before.
Now the price is pressed in the area between the levels 18.68 and 16.64, which is in the phase of accumulation that can lead to a new trend, which is not possible to determine.
From my side the last level that the price can hit before the uptrend is 11.94, however, good attention to the news from the government of Beijing can be determined the future of transportation in the coming months and not only that.
$ZIM,On Radar, waiting for trend change1) Cash flows can sufficiently cover interest payments
2) Prominent player in the Marine industry
3) Strong return over the last five years
4) Trading at a low Price / Book multiple
5) We shall change in price structure, at the moment follows downtrend
Ranks promised - Ranks did 💪🏼ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd - provides comprehensive logistics services, the main business is container shipping
TOTAL RANKS SCORE - 74 %
🟢 Fundamentally, at the moment, the stock looks more interesting than 74% of similar companies. Let's figure out what's what. ⁉️
RANKS FINANCE SCORE - 97 %
📍Return on invested capital is 74%, Net Profit margin is 36%
📍Equity is greater than total debt, and EBITDA for the year can cover the entire net debt with might and main
📍Free cash flow return is about 200% (the company is definitely doing well financially) 💰
RANKS VALUATION SCORE - 100 %
📍 All cost multipliers are much lower than the industry average
📍 Revenue and profit are in tremendous growth, but capitalization is small
📍 However ❗ the forecast P/E screams - SELL TILL YOU CAN ❗️ 👀
WHAT'S THE CATCH?
🔴 The consensus forecast for the company's earnings is depressing 📉
RANKS FORECAST SCORE - 11 %
📍 After a rapid COVID growth in freight costs in 2020 and 2021, the market is cooling down
📍 The peak rates of container transportation ended in 2021, the entire 2022 rate is falling
📍 Most likely, the rate will come to the level of "normal" 2019, and it will not end soon
RANKS RECOMENDATIONS
🟡 If you are already a stockholder, we recommend you to keep the stock. If you are only considering buying, we recommend abstaining if you do not want to wait more than a year.
📍 The company (#ZIM) is one of the largest players in the market and has a good financial safety cushion on its balance sheet.
📍 The current dynamics of stock quotes and the macroeconomic situation contribute to the continuation of the price drop.
📍 Nevertheless, in our opinion, the company's shares can become a good asset for the future, but not in the next 12 months.
ZIM Harmonic: Deep-Crab PatternZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. engages in the provision of shipping and logistics services. It offers shipping solutions, including the transportation of out-of-gauge cargo, refrigerated cargo, and dangerous and hazardous cargo. ZIM has a STRONG quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 7) with great analyst prospects (Strong Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, ZIM has an EXCELLENT dividend pay out @ 2.50 per share/year (Approximately 19.7% of the entry price at 12.68). Therefore, this ZIM long play has EXTREME DEEP-VALUE (one might say "ABYSSAL-VALUE", it's so deep), at the price levels from 12.68 - 11.30. Really, this trade is blowing my mind, it's insanely good.
In this idea, we have a deep crab pattern showing us that price should reverse between 12.68 - 11.30. I expect price to reverse exactly at 12.58ish. I would set the stop-loss for 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the remainder of my position. The first target nets 236.12% (Risk-to-Reward of 76.77) and the second target nets 382.57% (Risk-to-Reward of 124.38). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 329% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 76.77
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.09
SECOND TARGET
Probability: 0.93
Odds: 124.38
Bankroll:$1000
Calculation:
Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9294
Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $929.44
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
$ZIM last chance to shine$ZIM is in for a long 3 quarters with global freight rates in the gutter but after a 75% move down and a really nice reaction to the last major level ($18-19) the major HTF bull div has a shot at playing out. Specifically with wall-street running away as the massive dividend is likely to be cut in Q1 (who cares)
The main thing to consider is if this is a hold or a swing trade and with the current macro environment I think it needs to be a swing trade OR long long term hold. For the long term hold you need to examine freight rates and what ZIM was doing in 2019 (exclude bubble data from 2020-2022) DYOR and see what you think. Worth a look IMO.
The main thing is the S/R level could not be more clear... above $18 upside potential is pretty good and below $18 downside is price discovery...
