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New Zealand Dollar/Australian Dollar

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NZDAUD trade ideas

AUDNZD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically. These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
by Tonksovave
Monthly CLS range. AMD playing out. Shors in Distr. StageMonthly CLS range. AMD playing out. Short in the distribution phase you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become a better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
2
AUDNZD Buy### Trade 1 - Buy AUDNZD Analysis #### Factors Overview: 1. **Seasonals**: - NZD is bullish (25 Nov - 11 Dec), while GBP is neutral. - **Bias**: Slightly favors NZD. 2. **COT Index**: - NZD at the bottom, GBP near the top. - **Bias**: Favors AUD due to stronger relative COT positioning. 3. **Non-Commercials**: - GBP shows "Buy," while NZD indicates "Sell." - **Bias**: Favors AUD. 4. **Endogenous Factors (Endo)**: - NZD is decreasing, while GBP remains neutral. - **Bias**: Supports AUD. 5. **Exogenous Factors**: - **GDP**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **BOP Change**: Negative for GBP, positive for NZD → Favors NZD. - **Stocks**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **IR (Interest Rates)**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **Overall Exogenous Score**: GBP (32.5), NZD (-150). - **Bias**: Strongly supports AUD. 6. **Conditional Scoring**: - Positive: GBP (10), NZD (13). - Negative: GBP (5), NZD (5). - **Bias**: Slight advantage to NZD on positivity score, but largely neutral. --- #### Final Bias: Despite the seasonals favoring NZD, the combined COT, endogenous, and exogenous factors strongly favor AUD. --- #### Trade Bias: **Buy AUDNZD**
Long
by AtifDhedhi
AUD NZD**🚀 T.Y.L.A. Family, Let’s Celebrate! 🏆** We’ve done it again, team! Despite some challenges with the **XRPUSD** and **Gold** setups, we’ve officially recovered, and *all setups have come into profit!* 🙌 This is the consistency and resilience that sets us apart. Here’s a quick breakdown of a setup we haven’t revisited in a while: **Pair:** AUDNZD 📌 Entry: 1.09708 📌 Stop Loss: 1.10463 📌 Take Profit: 1.08299 This week, we’re back on track with it, showing steady progress. As always, **trade cautiously**—especially this week, because it’s **NFP Week!** 🗓️ NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) tends to bring high volatility, so let’s stick to our strategy and remain disciplined. The market rewards patience, and we’re here to grow, not gamble. 💯 Remember, every setback is just a setup for a stronger comeback. Let’s keep pushing forward, staying consistent, and maintaining our focus on steady, sustainable growth. Cheers to another successful week! 🎉 **Stay locked in and trade smart, T.Y.L.A. fam!**
Short
by FreeForexPips
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
AUDNZD BullishTechnical Analysis Divergence: The RSI divergence on the 4-hour AUD/NZD chart suggests a potential reversal or slowing of the downtrend. The price has made lower lows, while the RSI shows higher lows, indicating bullish divergence. This is a sign of weakening bearish momentum and the possibility of a reversal or consolidation. Support Zone: The price is hovering around a strong horizontal support level (yellow line). This area has previously acted as a support, increasing the likelihood of a bounce. Volume: Declining volume in the downtrend indicates weak bearish pressure, which further supports the case for a reversal. Fundamental Analysis Bias AUD Fundamentals (Strong): COT RSI data for the AUD shows higher percentages across 13, 26, and 52-week periods, indicating strong speculative positioning for AUD. This reflects a positive sentiment toward AUD . NZD Fundamentals (Weak): NZD COT RSI values are significantly lower, showing weakness in speculative sentiment compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors (Mixed): The endogenous factor table shows mixed scores. However, AUD scores are generally less negative or neutral, while NZD has slightly weaker scores. This gives AUD a slight fundamental edge. Overall Bias: The AUD/NZD pair's fundamental bias aligns bullish for AUD based on the data. If NZD fundamentals weaken further, this adds to the bullish outlook. Conclusion and Trade Bias Technical: Bullish Divergence + Support Zone: Favor a bounce or reversal in the short term. Watch for RSI to cross above 50 and confirmation of higher highs in price. Fundamental: AUD appears fundamentally stronger than NZD, supporting a medium-term bullish bias for the pair. Trade Plan Entry: Consider entering long positions near the current support level if bullish candles form on higher timeframes. Stop Loss: Place stops slightly below the support zone. Take Profit: Target previous resistance levels around 1.1050 and 1.1100.
Long
by aamir98
1
Long tern effect We're about to create another BOS, and for the upcoming days we're going to make huge pull-back for the market to have enough liquidity to go Long. for this the Market as we see on my chart is doing well and we're going to to wait until the opportunity comes on the right place and on the right time so we can go Long.. This trend will take several weeks to come into our Golden Zone. Even if you take Fibonacci the number will align well with the strategy there
Long
by josiahgeofreyfx
3
AUD/NZD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Fueled by Institutional PositAUD/NZD shows strong potential for continued upside, supported by large speculators who are holding long positions, as indicated by the latest COT data. This aligns with the typical contrarian dynamic, where retail traders remain predominantly bearish, positioning themselves against the trend. When retail sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, it often creates an opportunity for institutional players to push prices higher, targeting retail stop-loss orders. This dynamic suggests that AUD/NZD is well-positioned for further gains as institutional buying pressure outweighs the retail skepticism. With speculators backing the bullish trend and retail traders positioned against it, the pair is primed for sustained upside. Traders should keep an eye on key support zones and potential entry points to capitalize on the continuing bullish momentum.
Long
by OssianH