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New Zealand Dollar/Australian Dollar

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NZDAUD trade ideas

AUDNZDCurrent 10-Year Bond Yields (June 1–10, 2025) Australia: The 10-year government bond yield rose to approximately 4.34% on June 6, 2025, after a slight increase from earlier levels around 4.53% in late May 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently cut the cash rate to 3.85%, contributing to some volatility in yields. New Zealand: The 10-year government bond yield was about 4.64% on June 6, 2025, slightly up from around 4.59% at the end of May 2025. New Zealand’s official cash rate stands at 3.50% as of April 2025. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential between New Zealand and Australia is roughly: 4.64%−4.34%=0.30% This means New Zealand’s 10-year bonds yield about 30 basis points more than Australia’s. The policy interest rate differential is about: 3.50%(NZ)−3.85%(AU)=−0.35%, indicating Australia’s cash rate is currently higher by 35 basis points. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Implications UIP theory states that the expected change in the exchange rate between two currencies equals the interest rate differential between their countries E =iNZ−iAUE =i NZ−i AU Using the policy rate differential (-0.35%), UIP would imply the NZD should depreciate against the AUD by about 0.35% over the relevant horizon. Using the 10-year bond yield differential (+0.30%), UIP would imply the NZD should appreciate against the AUD by about 0.30%. The conflicting signals reflect that short-term rates favor AUD while long-term yields slightly favor NZD. In practice, exchange rates are influenced by risk premiums, growth expectations, and monetary policy outlooks beyond pure UIP. Key Upcoming June 2025 Economic Data (Australia and New Zealand) Australia: Inflation rate update (next CPI release) Employment and unemployment data for May 2025 Retail sales and business confidence reports RBA’s monetary policy statement and any forward guidance on rates New Zealand: Inflation expectations and Q2 CPI data Unemployment rate and labor market reports Trade balance and manufacturing PMI RBNZ commentary on interest rates and inflation outlook These economic releases will be critical for shaping market expectations on future interest rates and yield curves, thereby impacting the AUD/NZD exchange rate. Summary Metric Australia New Zealand Differential (NZ - AU) 10-Year Bond Yield ~4.34% (June 6, 2025) ~4.64% (June 6, 2025) +0.30% Policy Interest Rate 3.85% (May 2025) 3.50% (April 2025) -0.35% UIP Expected Exchange Rate — — Mixed signals (±0.3%) Key June Data Inflation, employment, RBA policy Inflation, labor market, RBNZ guidance The slightly higher long-term yields in New Zealand versus higher short-term rates in Australia create nuanced dynamics for AUD/NZD parity. The final exchange rate direction will depend on upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications in June 2025. In conclusion, while New Zealand’s slightly higher 10-year bond yields create a positive interest rate differential over Australia, the strong economic ties and global influences mean that Australian bond yield changes materially affect New Zealand yields. This dynamic plays a significant role in shaping the AUD/NZD exchange rate through interest rate parity and market expectations #AUDNZD #FOREX
by Shavyfxhub
AUD/NZD - Weekly Time frame Analysis📌 Technical Breakdown: ✅ Liquidity Sweep just occurred below previous lows, clearing weak long positions — a classic reversal signal. 🔂 Price tapped into a major weekly demand zone around the 1.04150 – 1.05000 range. 🔁 Strong reaction after hitting the 71% Fibonacci retracement, showing institutional buying. 🧱 Previous imbalance has been filled; structure now favoring a bullish continuation. 📈 The target: Buy-side liquidity above 1.10200 where price previously reversed with imbalance. 📊 Volume confirmed by a spike post-sweep — buyers are stepping in. 🎯 High-Probability Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 1.0500 – 1.0600 Stop Loss: Below 1.0390 (beneath liquidity zone and fib invalidation) Take Profit Target: 1.1000 – 1.1050 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:4+ depending on entry confirmation 🔮 Expectation: Price may form a higher low retest around 1.0600 before launching. A confirmed break above the imbalance at 1.0830 would unlock clean momentum toward buy-side targets. 🧠 Final Note: This is a classic demand + liquidity + fib reversal setup on the weekly — ideal for a mid-to-long-term swing position with fundamental and technical alignment. Confirmation from daily/4H time frames can optimize your entry timing.
Long
by jamesibartram
NNFX AUDNZD Short - Full Signal DelayedSignal: AUDNZD Short — Full Signal Delayed Context: C1 signal, C2 2 days ago Probability: Normal Risk: 0.5% → C2 signal 2 days ago, all other indicators align. Volume is short. R:R Plan: 1.3R, 75% scale-out at 1xATR TP for lower probability & drawdown management. --- Notes: Again, this is a trade I would not normally take, however, market gapped considerably below the close of the candle which my C1 triggered. The original candle where my C1 should have triggered if this was to be a full signal on time, was literally 1-2 pips away from triggering. Price had then pulled back on the next day, then gone short again on this day, triggering the C1. Due to an order block sitting about 15 pips below price, I also would have used a pending order to enter the market which would not have been triggered until today. Given this circumstance, and the gift of hindsight, this would have been a missed signal if I did not enter. I managed to enter at the same price I would have if the trade was completed 2 days ago but reduced risk to 0.5% to be cautious.
Short
by RealJudgeFPV
AUD/NZD SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG Hello, Friends! AUD/NZD pair is trading in a local downtrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going down too. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 1.089 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
1
AUD/NZD – Bearish Trade Setup-wk6The pair is forming a descending channel, which typically signals bearish continuation. Based on the current price action and technical structure, we are executing a short trade setup with the following stats: 🔹 Pair: AUD/NZD T/F:1H 🔹 Trend: Bearish (Descending Channel) 🔹 Entry Point (Sell Stop): 1.07593 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 1.08542 🔹 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.06644 🔹 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.05695 🔹 Lot Size: 0.18 🔹 Risk:Reward Ratios:  ▫️ Trade 1: 1:1 (Risk $100 : Reward $100)  ▫️ Trade 2: 1:2 (Risk $100 : Reward $200) 🔹 Total Risk: $200 🔹 Potential Reward: $300 📉 We're capitalizing on momentum within the descending channel and looking for breakdown confirmation to hit our targets. #AUDNZD #ForexTrading #DescendingChannel #BearishSetup #PriceAction #ForexSignals #RiskReward #TradingPlan #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortTrade #FXMarket #ForexCommunity #TradingView #MarketOutlook
Short
by asimafridi
AUD/NZD - Strong Bullish Trade Setup🔥 AUD/NZD 8H Bullish Setup – Demand Zone + Liquidity Grab 📍 Current Structure: Price is pulling back into a refined demand zone, perfectly aligned with the 71% Fibonacci retracement. This zone also holds trendline support from the higher timeframe — strong structural confluence. Price is forming a corrective wave, likely completing a classic ABC pattern down into demand. 📊 Volume Insight: A volume spike at the lows hints at aggressive buying — likely institutional. Smart money may be accumulating just before a bullish push. 📈 Play Idea: Looking for price to react inside the 71% zone, potentially forming a bullish engulfing or BOS (break of structure). Clear target is Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) above recent highs — that's where stops are clustered. 🧠 Confluences: Demand Zone ✅ 71% Fib Level ✅ Trendline Support ✅ Volume Spike ✅ Buy Side Liquidity Target ✅ 🎯 Bias: Strongly Bullish Waiting for a clean trigger — bullish candle confirmation or BOS. This setup screams smart money accumulation.
Long
by jamesibartram
AUDNZD-H1-SHORTThe price, previously supported by ascending trendlines, has recently broken below these lines, signaling a potential reversal in momentum. The Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) highlights critical support and resistance zones, with the price moving outside the cloud, reinforcing the breakdown of the prior uptrend. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines confirm this shift through their crossover, aligning with the wave structure and indicating a bearish turn. This setup suggests an opportunity for a short position, as the market may be entering a consolidation or downtrend phase. If you liked this analysis, hit the BOOST !
Short
by MB2020MB2020
Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?AUD/NZD is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.0750 1st Support: 1.07095 1st Resistance: 1.08521 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets