NZDCHF BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISNZDCHF is currently trading around the 0.4880–0.4900 zone, and on the daily timeframe, the pair appears to be completing an inverse head and shoulders pattern. However, unlike the typical bullish nature of this pattern, price has failed to break above the neckline and is showing early signs of bearish continuation. The right shoulder has already failed to create a higher high, and recent bearish candlesticks with strong wicks to the upside suggest rejection and downside momentum building. My short bias is supported by this structural weakness and loss of bullish steam.
From a fundamental perspective, the Swiss Franc remains strong due to its safe-haven demand amid lingering global risk aversion and slowing global growth expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, while on hold recently, has adopted a relatively dovish tone as domestic inflation trends soften. This diverging policy stance between the SNB and RBNZ provides a macroeconomic tailwind favoring CHF strength and NZD weakness. In today’s session, CHF also gained modestly following stronger-than-expected CPI revisions and cautious risk flows in the Asian and European sessions.
Technically, we’ve seen a clean break of the recent support zone near 0.4890, and the market structure has flipped bearish on both the daily and H4 charts. I expect further downside continuation toward the 0.4680–0.4700 range, especially if the current lower highs pattern persists. The bearish flag breakdown and consistent lower closes support continuation toward my 0.46 target. This offers a solid short setup with a favorable risk-reward ratio in play.
I’ll continue monitoring for any pullback toward the 0.4920–0.4950 area for potential re-entries on weakness. Momentum and volume indicators also point lower, aligning with the price action thesis. As long as we stay below 0.4970, the bearish scenario remains active, and I’m looking to capitalize on this developing bearish cycle in NZDCHF.
