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New Zealand Dollar/British Pound

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NZDGBP trade ideas

GBPNZD Breakdown – Smart Money Turns Fully Bearish🧠 Macro + COT + Sentiment Context Commitment of Traders (COT) – Asset Managers Institutional asset managers are significantly net short on GBPNZD, with positioning at its lowest level of the year and declining sharply since May. This reflects a clear bearish stance from smart money and reinforces the current downward pressure. Sentiment & Momentum Indicators DPO: -54.9 → Indicates a moderately bearish momentum phase. Wyckoff: -20.3 → Price is in a distribution phase, suggesting weakness. Speed: 3.2 → Low acceleration, but directional bias remains bearish. Market Mood: Neutral, but leaning into oversold territory. Seasonality (July 1st – Sept 30th) Historically, GBPNZD performs positively in this period: 3Y: +1.7%, 5Y: +1.6%, 10Y: +2.3%, 15Y: +2.8% However, in 2025, price is diverging sharply from seasonal norms. The pair is trading against historical patterns, suggesting a seasonal anomaly where institutional flow is dominating historical behavior. 🧱 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart) GBPNZD had been consolidating in a clear range between 2.2170 support and 2.2750 resistance since May. The pair has now broken down with a strong, full-bodied weekly candle, closing below the 2.2320 demand zone. Key Technical Zones: Supply zone (2.2494–2.2659) → A clear rejection zone that initiated the current selloff. Demand zone (2.2170–2.2300) → Has been tested twice already, increasing the probability of a clean breakdown. RSI (Daily) → Currently neutral, with a sequence of lower highs and no bullish divergence in sight — indicating weak momentum. ✅ Conclusion & Trade Plan Directional Bias: Bearish (Short) Although seasonality typically supports bullish price action for GBPNZD in Q3, the current context is decisively bearish. Institutional positioning, price structure, and sentiment all confirm a potential shift in direction, reinforced by a confirmed weekly breakdown. Bearish Targets: 📍 First: 2.2170 (recent support test) 📍 Second: 2.2000–2.1900 (April swing low) 📍 Extension: 2.1750 (base of previous accumulation zone) Invalidation Criteria: A weekly close above 2.2490 (supply zone breached) Bullish RSI divergence + weekly recovery candle
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
GBPNZD: Bullish Move in a Channel 🇬🇧🇳🇿 I see a horizontal parallel channel on GBPNZD on a daily. The price is currently testing its support. On an hourly time frame, a cup & handle pattern was formed on that. Its neckline was violated with the today's high impact news. I think that the price may bounce at least to 2.246 level. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
GBPNZD Analysis — 4H Chart ReviewI’m watching GBPNZD for a potential bullish continuation after a successful retest of the long-term ascending trendline. Price rejected near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and showed bullish momentum right off that support. My structure suggests potential upside targets at 2.25559 (minor resistance) and 2.26854 (upper triangle boundary/major resistance zone). 🔍 Fundamental Context: 🇬🇧 GBP Fundamentals: UK CPI came in softer than expected, and BoE rate cuts are slowly being priced in for late 2025. However, BoE still sounds relatively hawkish compared to RBNZ due to inflation persistence in services. Strong UK wage growth and sticky inflation give GBP some near-term yield support. 🇳🇿 NZD Fundamentals: RBNZ remains on hold, but dovish tilt noted in recent communications. NZD under pressure from falling dairy prices and weak global growth sentiment (especially China). Risk-off flows and Fed hawkishness keep NZD vulnerable as a high-beta currency. ⚠️ Risks to the Setup: A surprise hawkish turn from RBNZ or better-than-expected NZ data could boost NZD. Renewed UK political instability or weak retail sales data may pressure GBP. Broader market risk sentiment — NZD may strengthen if risk-on returns and US yields drop. 🗓️ Key News/Events to Monitor: UK Retail Sales (July 25) RBNZ Governor Orr Speech (if scheduled) US PCE (for global risk impact) Chinese macro data (indirect NZD driver) 🔁 Leader/Lagger Perspective: GBPNZD often leads EURNZD during GBP-specific catalysts (BoE speeches, UK CPI). It lags NZDUSD and NZDCAD when risk sentiment or commodity cycles dominate. 📌 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints I'm bullish on GBPNZD in the short term, especially after a strong trendline retest and recovery off the 2.2450 zone. Fundamentals support GBP resilience over NZD due to relatively hawkish BoE stance and weaker New Zealand data. The main risk to this setup would be a dovish BoE surprise or strong NZ commodity-led rebound. I'll be watching UK Retail Sales and general risk sentiment closely. This pair can act as a leader during UK-specific news but becomes a lagger when risk flows dominate broader NZD direction.
Long
by ultreosforex
2
GBP-NZD Will Keep Falling! Sell! Hello,Traders! GBP-NZD keeps falling down And the pair made a strong Bearish breakout of the key Horizontal key level of 2.2400 And the breakout is confirmed So we are bearish biased and We will be expecting a further Bearish move down on Monday Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
"GBP/NZD: Bearish Storm Brewing – Get Ready!🚨 GBP/NZD HEIST ALERT: "Pound vs Kiwi" Bearish Trap Setup! 🚨 (Scalping/Day Trade) 🌟 Attention, Market Robbers & Profit Pirates! 🌟 🔥 Thief Trading Strategy Activated – Time to short the GBP/NZD like a pro! This pair is setting up for a bearish heist, and we’re locking in entries before the drop. High-risk, high-reward? You bet. 🎯 TRADE PLAN (Bearish Ambush) Entry Zone (Short) 📉: Optimal: Sell limit orders on retests (15m/30m timeframe). Thief’s Trick: Layer entries (DCA-style) near recent highs for max efficiency. "Enter like a sniper, escape like a ghost." 👻 Stop Loss 🛑: 4H Swing High/Wick (Near 2.25900) – Adjust based on your risk & lot size. "A smart thief always has an exit route." 🏃💨 Target 🎯: 2.22000 (or escape early if the trap snaps shut!) 💣 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bearish Triggers) Technical Setup: Oversold bounce? Nah. Consolidation → Reversal trap. Fundamentals: Weak GBP sentiment? Strong NZD data? Check the news! Market Psychology: Bulls are getting trapped at resistance—time to fade them. ⚠️ THIEF’S WARNING News = Volatility Bomb 💣 – Avoid new trades during high-impact events. Trailing SLs = Your Best Friend – Lock profits & dodge reversals. 💎 BOOST THIS IDEA & JOIN THE HEIST! 🔥 Hit 👍 LIKE, 🚀 BOOST, and FOLLOW for more lucrative robberies! 💸 "Steal the market’s money—before it steals yours." 🏴‍☠️ 🔔 Stay tuned—next heist coming soon! 🔔
Short
by The-Thief
GBP/NZD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG Hello, Friends! We are going long on the GBP/NZD with the target of 2.262 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
1
The Layout tool that Changed the Game for MeTradingView’s layout tool has really helped me stay focused. Using the 1-hour on the left and the 4-hour on the right gave me clarity. The 1H showed many Fair Value Gaps, but it was hard to know which one to trust. The 4H chart made it easier. It showed one clean FVG lining up with the 50 to 61.8 Fib zone. That is the area I will wait for. If price returns to that zone and I see a clear bearish confirmation candle, I will take the trade with confidence. This layout tool has improved my analysis. I will make a short video soon to show how I use it. Big thanks to TradingView for building tools that make trading simpler and smarter.
Short
by J4mesWick
GBP_NZD LOCAL SHORT| ✅GBP_NZD  made a retest of the Local horizontal resistance level of 2.2580 And as you can see the pair is already Making a local pullback from The level which sends a clear Bearish signal to us therefore We will be expecting a Further bearish correction SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ 

 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
GBPNZD to form a higher low?GBPNZD - 24H expiry The medium term bias remains bullish. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Bespoke support is located at 2.2515. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. We look to Buy at 2.2515 (stop at 2.2475) Our profit targets will be 2.2675 and 2.2710 Resistance: 2.2660 / 2.2720 / 2.2770 Support: 2.2510 / 2.2420 / 2.2375 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
GBPNZD Elliotwaves update: Are Bears still on control?We have been on this in the past two weeks and now we can see clear signs of bears controlling the price. We had a triangle correction completed and made an impulsive wave to the downside which confirmed our bias. Now are are on the first wave of wave 3 and we should anticipate momentum to the downside to increase. To take advantage of the drop one should find areas where price might find resistance and other confluences like Fibonacci to take a trade.
Short
by Elliotwavesglobal
SHORT GBPNZD Trade Highlight: Short GBPNZD Analysis: This trade beautifully showcased the power of technical analysis! We capitalized on the clear bearish trend with lower highs, perfecting our entry at 1.9900 just below strong resistance at 2.00. The bearish engulfing pattern reinforced our conviction, indicating potential selling pressure. Coupled with the RSI nearing overbought territory, it was a textbook setup! Outcome: The trade was a triumph, reaching our take profit at 1.9650 for a rewarding 250 pips! This not only validated our strategy but also underscored the importance of reading market signals accurately. Conclusion: This trade exemplifies how disciplined analysis and patience can lead to successful outcomes. Happy trading! 🌟
Short
by KimFX2025