Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".
Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.
If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.
Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"
Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.
Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).
1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).
You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.
When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.
The second rule;
Each trend has three phases:
Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.
Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)
Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.
This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.
Then, the 3rd rule.
The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).
4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.
(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)
Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.
As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)
You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.
The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.
In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.
Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"
We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.
At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.
Something like this;
You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NZDUSD trade ideas
NZDUSD: Time For a Bullish Wave?NZDUSD: Time For a Bullish Wave?
NZDUSD managed to rise above the bullish "Ascending Channel" pattern by showing that the bulls want to take the price control.
The trade looks good and clear and for normal conditions it should have been great.
However considering that we have the US Elections Results during the coming days the market will be volatile and should speculate about the USD movements.
However this is what NZDUSD is showing at the moment
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NZDUSD Is approaching higher time frames ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59900 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NZDUSD Is Approaching A Decent ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59950 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59950 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential bullish rise?The kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.5991
1st Support: 0.5939
1st Resistance: 0.6048
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZD/USD Bearish Reversal from Order BlockAnalysis Summary
Order Block Resistance: The price has reached an order block in the zone between 0.6016 and 0.6032. This area is likely to act as a strong resistance, where sellers might step in, potentially initiating a bearish reversal.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Lower Low (LL): The recent BOS and LL formations reinforce a bearish structure, suggesting a continuation of downward momentum if the price fails to break above the order block.
Support Levels: Key support levels are noted at 0.5959 and 0.5934. These areas are potential targets if the price reverses from the order block. They may attract buying interest but could also act as intermediate stops for a bearish move.
Weak Low: The weak low around 0.5911 could serve as an ultimate target for the bearish move. If this level is reached and broken, it would confirm further downside potential and a continuation of the bearish trend.
Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Reversal from Order Block: If the price is rejected within the 0.6016–0.6032 order block, a bearish move could unfold, targeting the support levels at 0.5959, 0.5934, and eventually the weak low at 0.5911.
Breakout Scenario: Should the price break above the order block and sustain itself, it would invalidate the bearish setup and could signal a potential bullish continuation.
Conclusion
NZD/USD is approaching significant resistance within the order block zone at 0.6016–0.6032, where a bearish reversal could initiate a move toward 0.5959, 0.5934, and possibly the weak low at 0.5911. Traders should monitor the reaction within the order block for potential short entries, keeping an eye on support levels for downside targets.
NZDUSD next possible moveWe observe that CAD/CHF has reached a very interesting zone. A solid confirmation could allow us to target up.
06.11.24 Morning Forecast (Post Election)Pairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:EURGBP
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
Monday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highsMonday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highs
I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart if we get the confirmation.
Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
NZDUSD Slightly Bullish Bias Today: Key Fundamental Drivers !Introduction
Today, the NZDUSD currency pair shows a slightly bullish bias, supported by fundamental factors in the current market conditions. Traders are closely monitoring the New Zealand dollar's performance against the US dollar, as it provides valuable insight into the economic trends in both countries. In this analysis, we’ll break down the key drivers likely to influence NZDUSD today and explore whether a bullish stance is justified.
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Key Factors Driving NZDUSD Bullish Bias
1. New Zealand Economic Data and Market Sentiment
The NZDUSD is benefiting from positive sentiment around recent New Zealand economic data. In the last few weeks, upbeat employment numbers and stable inflation indicators have bolstered confidence in New Zealand’s economic resilience. The recent jobs report revealed an increase in labor force participation and a decline in the unemployment rate, which suggests stronger consumer spending and economic stability. This environment supports demand for the New Zealand dollar, as traders expect a steady economic performance.
2. US Dollar Weakness Amid Mixed Data
The US dollar’s recent struggles play a significant role in NZDUSD’s bullish outlook. Recent US data releases, including mixed non-farm payrolls and a below-expectation ISM Manufacturing PMI, signal an uneven recovery in the US economy. Additionally, traders are beginning to anticipate that the Federal Reserve may hold off on further interest rate hikes, putting downward pressure on the US dollar. This outlook supports a bullish sentiment for NZDUSD, as reduced rate hike expectations make the New Zealand dollar more attractive in comparison.
3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Trends
New Zealand's economy is heavily commodity-dependent, and rising global dairy and meat prices provide a tailwind for the NZD. Furthermore, the recent uptick in global trade volumes is particularly favorable for New Zealand, which relies heavily on exports. The improved demand in key markets for New Zealand exports, like China and Australia, strengthens the economic outlook, reinforcing the NZD and contributing to the bullish bias for NZDUSD.
4. Interest Rate Differential and Central Bank Policies
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a hawkish stance relative to the Federal Reserve, and this divergence is crucial for traders betting on the NZDUSD. The RBNZ’s approach to keeping interest rates elevated amidst inflation control efforts indicates support for the NZD. With the Fed showing signs of a more dovish outlook and potential rate cuts in 2025, the interest rate differential could favor a stronger New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
5. Global Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Dynamics
The NZD often benefits during periods of strong global risk sentiment, while the USD’s safe-haven appeal wanes. Given the relatively calm market sentiment today, risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD tend to attract buyers, while the USD may face pressure. If this positive risk sentiment continues, the NZDUSD could maintain its upward bias.
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Technical Outlook for NZDUSD
From a technical analysis perspective, NZDUSD is trading near key support levels, which align with the fundamental bias for a slight bullish trend. Key resistance levels around 0.6000 may be tested if the current bullish momentum sustains. Traders are watching for breakout signals that could indicate further upside potential, with support levels near 0.5930 expected to provide a floor if the pair faces minor pullbacks.
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Conclusion
In summary, a combination of supportive economic data from New Zealand, US dollar weakness, favorable commodity prices, interest rate differentials, and risk-on sentiment underpin today’s slightly bullish outlook for NZDUSD. As these factors continue to influence market sentiment, NZDUSD could see moderate gains if bullish momentum holds. Traders should keep an eye on any shifts in US economic data and central bank communications, which could impact this bias.
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NZDUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bullish Bias on November NZDUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bullish Bias on November 4, 2024
Introduction
Today, November 4, 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar) pair may see a slight bullish bias, supported by various fundamental factors and current market conditions. This article provides a detailed analysis of NZDUSD, focusing on the key drivers and factors shaping the market to help traders make informed decisions. For TradingView readers, we’ve highlighted essential keywords to enhance SEO visibility, ensuring this article reaches those interested in NZDUSD forex trading.
Key Drivers Impacting NZDUSD Today
1. New Zealand's Economic Indicators
- Recent data from New Zealand suggest signs of resilience in the economy. The employment change report has shown a steady improvement, with job growth figures remaining healthy, indicating an active labor market. This positive outlook could drive investor sentiment toward the New Zealand dollar, potentially contributing to a slight bullish trend in NZDUSD.
2. US Dollar Weakness amid Mixed Economic Signals
- The US Dollar Index has experienced slight declines, attributed to recent mixed economic data from the United States. Employment numbers from the US have fallen short of expectations, indicating potential softening in the labor market. Additionally, lower-than-expected PMI data may weigh on the dollar’s strength, giving the New Zealand dollar room to appreciate against the USD.
3. Interest Rate Differential between RBNZ and the Federal Reserve
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a more dovish approach, yet expectations remain that the RBNZ will keep rates steady. In contrast, the Federal Reserve's signals toward holding interest rates stable could lead investors to seek higher-yielding currencies, such as the New Zealand dollar, in search of better returns. This factor may support a bullish bias for NZDUSD today.
4. China's Economic Conditions and Impact on NZD
- China’s economic performance has a significant influence on the New Zealand dollar due to the trade relationship between the two countries. Recent data from China indicate modest improvements in manufacturing and industrial production, which could provide indirect support to the New Zealand dollar. As market sentiment improves around Chinese growth, demand for commodities and related currencies, such as the NZD, might see a boost.
5. Technical Analysis Points to Potential Upside
- From a technical perspective, NZDUSD is trading above its 20-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a near-neutral position, suggesting room for an upward move. Additionally, recent chart patterns hint at possible support near 0.5850, with resistance around 0.5950, creating a scenario where buyers may step in if support levels hold firm.
Conclusion
In conclusion, NZDUSD could see a slight bullish bias today, with factors such as New Zealand’s stable economic indicators, recent USD weakness, interest rate differentials, and China’s economic health supporting the pair. While this analysis indicates a possible upward movement, traders should remain cautious and monitor any new data releases from both New Zealand and the United States. Stay tuned to TradingView for live updates and further analysis on NZDUSD.
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NZDUSDNZD is looks like bottomed out against the USD. Price may reverse from current levels if it breaks above the last LH. Also, the pair is making a harmonic pattern which indicates a reversal any time soon. lets see how it goes.
Sliced KiwiThe New Zealand dollar continues to decline, solidifying its position as the second-worst-performing major currency this year .
It was trading at 0.5916 USD late Thursday in Wellington and has shed nearly 6.5% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year.
By early Friday it had dipped below 0.5900 and was trading at 0.5893.
It is falling thanks to the “unceasing advance of the bears”, according to Brett Ottawa at OFX. The KIWI is under noticeable pressure.
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies.
Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations.
George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked.
According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
NZD-USD Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-USD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Is making a pullback
From the horizontal resistance
Of 0.6000 from where
We will be expecting a
Further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NZDUSD If the support of the bottom of the channel is not lostIf the support of the bottom of the channel is not lost, the upward path will continue and imaginable scenarios.
As long as it does not lose the bottom of the long-term ascending channel, it will follow the path drawn by the blue arrow in the current descending channel and the target points can be imagined for it. If it hits the bottom of the ascending channel again and loses it, the next support level is marked in the red path. The results of the US presidential election and the upcoming federal conference of the day and the decision regarding the interest rate should also be taken into account.
Pullback resistance ahead?The kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6008
1st Support: 0.5939
1st Resistance: 0.6048
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Coming down to the wire | FX ResearchIt's going to be a bumpy ride over the next 24 hours, or perhaps even longer, as we finally find out who the next president of the United States will be.
The race is neck and neck, and the outcome could very well impact financial markets, especially as we head into the U.S. open.
Risk sentiment is looking up across the board: currencies are higher against the dollar, U.S. equity futures are pointing to a positive open, and commodities are up as well.
Earlier today, the RBA left rates on hold as widely expected, while sounding a bit more hawkish than the market had anticipated.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ warned that New Zealand is experiencing a pronounced economic downturn that could worsen.
Looking ahead, we’ll get trade data from Canada and the U.S., the U.S. ISM Services report, the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, ECB President Lagarde’s speech, and of course, updates on the U.S. election.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
NZDUSD LONG TRADE IDEANZDUSD is printing lower highs and lower lows, but the RSI Indicator shows a Bullish Divergence which indicates that the trend will move to the bullish side soon. Myfxbook's website shows a 94% Bullish move in NZDUSD sentiment. So, I expect the chart to make higher highs soon. My trade plan is on the long side.
What do you guys think of this idea?
Smart money concept.i took this trade because of:
1.the 1H and 15m uptrend
2.liqudity and manipulation in 5M
3.the counter trend in 5m
5.the demand zone in 15M
Tis the season for longs on commodities.Entry: 0.5953
TP1: 0.6117
TP2: 0.6378
SL: 0.577
With Trump's back in office and his tariff policies back on the table, American-Chinese trade could very well end up decimated. On the flip side, the Aussie and Kiwi economy could find an opportunity to benefit from this as China will likely be pushed to rely more on their free trade agreement. Add that to the fact that, risk-on assets generally trend bullish during the holiday seasons.
NZDUSD LONG IDEA On 4HR tf, we can see some exhaustion around 0.59611 as we got multiple equal lows, and price pushed up and is currently above resistance level 0.59979. Should price close the 240 candle above resistance we can start looking for long opportunities towards 0.60584.
Kiwi H4 | Approaching resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6003 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6041 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.5935 which is a pullback support.
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