Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".
Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.
If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.
Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"
Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.
Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).
1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).
You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.
When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.
The second rule;
Each trend has three phases:
Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.
Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)
Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.
This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.
Then, the 3rd rule.
The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).
4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.
(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)
Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.
As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)
You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.
The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.
In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.
Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"
We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.
At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.
Something like this;
You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
NZDUSD trade ideas
NZDUSD: Intraday Bullish MovementCheck a price action on 📈NZDUSD.
After a drop below an important intraday/daily level, the NZDUSD price began trading within a tight range.
The price with a single candle surge, breaking through a resistance line in a downward channel and a horizontal range resistance based on the daily key level.
There is potential for the pair to keep climbing towards targets of 0.6010 - 0.6026.
NZDUSD Is approaching higher time frames ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59900 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Monday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highsMonday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highs
I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart if we get the confirmation.
Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
NZDUSD in a Clear Bearish TrendNZDUSD in a Clear Bearish Trend
NZD/USD is moving inside a "Descending Channel" in a well-defined bearish trend.
The market's focus has been on the US election results, with the anticipated Trump victory supporting USD strength throughout the month.
Now that the election period is winding down, market activity is slowing.
However, as long as the price continues to respect this pattern, there is a chance for further downside in the short term, as shown on the 60-minute chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NZDUSD: Time For a Bullish Wave?NZDUSD: Time For a Bullish Wave?
NZDUSD managed to rise above the bullish "Ascending Channel" pattern by showing that the bulls want to take the price control.
The trade looks good and clear and for normal conditions it should have been great.
However considering that we have the US Elections Results during the coming days the market will be volatile and should speculate about the USD movements.
However this is what NZDUSD is showing at the moment
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NZD/USD 4 Entries + 500 Pips 0 Drawdown , New Entry Valid !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
nzdusdnzdusd for buy
The pair is in a good buying zone after executing the Turtle Soup trick and taking liquidity from the FVG area.
NZDUSD - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target range 100 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name : NZD/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Short )
———————————
Bearish Break
0.59600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible range Hvn
- Trend Contnuation
- Fibo Golden / Choch
- Day low Break
Bullish Reversal
0.58900 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Lvn
- Pattern Target
- Major Choch zone
- Quarter low
NZDUSD LONGI have observed an inverted H&S pattern for NU on the daily and weekly time frame. We are also at the .236 FIB retracement. May be a good entry for reversal.
NzdUsd Trade IdeaNU is an extremely bearish pair. Price has been creating LH and LLs on all time frames. I wanted to see price pullback to the last LL created and that's exactly what happened. Entry for me was a shift of structure after the pullback to confirm our push to the downside. Entry was after a bearish candle closed on the 15m with the 1hr also going bearish. Personally looking for a 1:3rr on this set up. We'll see what happens.
NZDUSD Is Approaching A Decent ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59950 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59950 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential bullish rise?The kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.5991
1st Support: 0.5939
1st Resistance: 0.6048
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NZDUSD ChartThere is Bullish Divergence. So chance of trend reversal wait till breakout last LH. Then take buy entry.
Bearish drop?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5986
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.5913|
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6024
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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NZDUSD BUY SETUP !!"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary."
Smart money concept.i took this trade because of:
1.the 1H and 15m uptrend
2.liqudity and manipulation in 5M
3.the counter trend in 5m
5.the demand zone in 15M
NZDUSD / SHORT / M15
Bearish Order Block: 0.59833 - 0.59782
NZDUSD is showing potential for a downside move from the identified bearish order block, with a high probability for a profitable trade setup. The price has already touched the order block, so let's monitor price action closely to see if it aligns with our expected momentum.
NZDUSD / SHORT / M15
LOT :- 0.2
Entry Price :- 0.59783
Take Profit :- 0.59635
Stop Loss :- 0.59934
NZDUSD next possible moveWe observe that CAD/CHF has reached a very interesting zone. A solid confirmation could allow us to target up.
NZDUSD Bullish Bias on October 29, 2024: Fundamental Analysis !Overview: NZDUSD Daily Analysis with Slight Bullish Bias on 29/10/2024
As of October 29, 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar) currency pair shows a slight bullish bias. This outlook is driven by a combination of factors, including recent economic data releases, interest rate expectations, and external influences on both the New Zealand and U.S. economies. In this analysis, we'll look at the critical fundamental drivers affecting NZDUSD today and explore why a bullish trend could be more favorable.
Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias
1. Strong New Zealand Economic Indicators
- Recent data releases from New Zealand have shown resilience in GDP growth, robust employment numbers, and strong retail sales figures. These economic indicators collectively suggest that the New Zealand economy is maintaining a steady recovery trajectory.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has emphasized stability in its interest rate policies, which lends some support to the NZD in the near term, especially as the markets anticipate other global currencies might experience higher volatility.
2. Dovish Tone from the Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve's current stance has been notably cautious. Although inflation has shown signs of moderation, the Fed is maintaining a watchful approach toward interest rate hikes, which has softened USD demand.
- With Federal Reserve members expressing concerns over slower growth, the likelihood of further rate increases seems limited, which could weigh on the U.S. Dollar’s strength, creating favorable conditions for NZDUSD.
3. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
- Risk sentiment remains an influential factor for NZDUSD, as the New Zealand Dollar is often viewed as a “risk currency.” Recently, global markets have seen heightened interest in risk assets as investors seek higher returns, which typically benefits the NZD.
- Stock market trends also point to a cautious risk-on sentiment today, supporting currencies like the New Zealand Dollar over safe havens, including the USD.
4. Commodity Prices and the Impact on NZDUSD
- As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often correlates with commodity prices. The slight uptick in dairy prices—a primary export for New Zealand—has bolstered the currency, offering additional support against the USD.
Technical Factors Supporting NZDUSD
On the technical front, NZDUSD is showing strong support levels around the 0.5900 mark, with a potential resistance near 0.6050. This support-resistance band aligns with current market sentiment, allowing room for potential upside movement. A breakout above the resistance level could confirm the bullish bias and potentially attract more buyers.
Conclusion: Why Today’s Market Conditions Favor NZDUSD
The current market conditions and fundamental indicators suggest that NZDUSD may see a slight bullish bias throughout October 29, 2024. New Zealand's strong economic outlook, combined with the Fed’s cautious tone and positive risk sentiment, all contribute to a favorable environment for the New Zealand Dollar. However, traders should monitor any breaking news that could shift market sentiment and potentially affect NZDUSD.
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SELL NZDUSD - trade explained in detail Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 15 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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