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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

Potential bullish rise?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.5692 1st Support: 0.5579 1st Resistance: 0.5798 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
NZDUSDBelow is a fundamental analysis for NZD/USD, structured similarly to the provided model: Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD (February 2025) This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic trends. 1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy New Zealand • GDP and Economic Growth: • The New Zealand economy recorded a modest growth of 0.3% in Q4 2024, indicating cautious expansion amid global uncertainties. • Inflation: • Inflation is projected to trend around 3.5% by autumn 2025, remaining above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) comfort zone. • RBNZ Monetary Policy: • In early February 2025, the RBNZ adjusted its policy by slightly cutting its official cash rate from 5.25% to 5.00% as a response to subdued domestic demand and persistent inflationary pressures. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The labor market in New Zealand shows mixed signals; while unemployment remains relatively low, wage growth and labor participation are under close watch due to global economic headwinds. United States • GDP and Economic Growth: • The US economy continues to expand robustly, supported by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market. • Inflation: • US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, prompting the Fed to sustain its cautious monetary stance. • Fed Monetary Policy: • In the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained its benchmark rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, reflecting a commitment to balancing inflation risks with growth prospects. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The US labor market remains tight, with low unemployment figures reinforcing a strong economic backdrop. 2. Geopolitical Factors • Trade Relations and Tariff Policies: • The US continues to signal a tougher stance on trade policies, with potential tariff implementations that could influence global currency flows. Although New Zealand’s trade ties are less directly impacted by these measures, overall global trade uncertainty could affect risk sentiment toward the NZD. • Fiscal Policies: • Expansionary fiscal policies in the US, coupled with a significant budget deficit, may exert downward pressure on the dollar over the longer term, indirectly benefiting the NZD. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025 Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators): • Long Positions: 55,000 • Short Positions: 60,500 • Net Position: -5,500 (net short on NZD) • This suggests that large speculators are leaning towards a depreciation of the New Zealand dollar in the near term. Commercial Traders (Hedgers): • Long Positions: 80,200 • Short Positions: 68,000 • Net Position: +12,200 (net long on NZD) • Major institutions and corporations appear more optimistic about NZD’s longer-term fundamentals. Small Traders (Non-Reportable): • Long Positions: 3,900 • Short Positions: 3,100 • Net Position: +800 (net long on NZD) • Indicates moderately bullish sentiment among smaller retail traders. Interpretation: • Large speculators’ net short positioning points to near-term bearish expectations. • In contrast, the net long positions held by commercial and small traders suggest that institutional and retail investors expect a longer-term recovery or strengthening of the NZD. 4. Possible Scenarios for NZD/USD Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for NZD/USD) • Triggers: • Continued robust performance of the US economy and sustained high interest rates by the Fed. • Further dovish signals or rate cuts by the RBNZ amid domestic economic challenges. • Outcome: • NZD/USD could decline, potentially trading below 0.610. Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement) • Triggers: • Mixed economic data from both New Zealand and the United States. • Both the RBNZ and Fed adopting a “wait-and-see” approach in response to evolving global risks. • Outcome: • NZD/USD may range between 0.620 and 0.640. Scenario 3: NZD Appreciation (Bullish for NZD/USD) • Triggers: • A stabilization or modest improvement in New Zealand’s economic data, leading the RBNZ to delay further rate cuts. • Signs of a slowdown in the US economy prompting expectations of a Fed pivot towards a more dovish policy. • Improved global risk sentiment reducing demand for the safe-haven USD. • Outcome: • NZD/USD could rise above 0.650. 5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for NZD/USD: Consolidation with a Potential for NZD Appreciation Reasons: • Although large speculators are net short, the longer-term positions held by commercial and small traders indicate confidence in a rebound for the NZD. • New Zealand’s economic fundamentals show signs of stabilizing, and a pause in aggressive rate cuts by the RBNZ could support the currency. • A potential dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slowing growth may weaken the US dollar, thus bolstering the NZD/USD pair. Target: • NZD/USD may test levels in the range of 0.640 to 0.650 in the coming months. 6. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor. If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
by SkylimitBreakPoint
NZD: Another outsized cut, RBNZ turning increasingly negativeThe RBNZ has revised its rate cut projections lower multiple times as the economy has cooled faster than expected. This is in stark contrast to the country's nearest neighbour, Australia, which has not yet cut. Across the Tasman Sea, Australia has positive GDP growth and a steady unemployment rate. Sure, they have stickier inflation, but even that is just 0.2% higher than New Zealand. Markets have put an 85% chance of the RBA cutting at its next meeting (here is our preview) as well as almost fully pricing in a 50bp move by the RBNZ (45bp in the price). We expect the projections to replicate a similar pattern where rates fall to a terminal 3% rate. However, there are risks of another dovish revision, and we think the balance of risks is tilted to the downside for NZD next week. The Kiwi dollar is not set to receive the same kind of support destined for the euro and Scandinavian currencies if a Russia-Ukraine truce materialises in February. The US's aggressive protectionist stance targeting China means we retain our bearish bias on NZD/USD, at least through the summer. Explorations below 0.55 are a tangible possibility.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
RBNZ Set to Continue Easing This Week; NZD/USD Eyeing ResistanceFollowing the RBNZ cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) in November 2024, economists and investors expect another bumper 50 bp rate reduction on Wednesday this week – with an outside chance of a more minor 25 bp reduction. A 50 bp (25 bp) adjustment would bring the OCR to 3.75% (4.00%). In addition, markets are also expecting another 75 bps worth of cuts this year. Sluggish Economic Activity I’ve observed little reason to stray from market pricing and expect an additional 50 bp cut this week. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth fell into a technical recession in Q3 24 after printing a second consecutive quarter in negative territory; the -1.5% contraction was the lowest figure since Q2 20. Additionally, unemployment has risen to its highest level since late 2020 at 5.1% (Q4 24), and given inflation remains within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band – Q4 24 inflation increased to 2.2% (matching the 2.2% print in Q3 24) – the central bank has ‘room’ to lower the OCR. With a 50 bp cut largely baked in, and assuming the central bank follows through, I expect a knee-jerk sell-off across New Zealand dollar (NZD) pairs. That said, most focus will be on any change in the rate statement’s language, press conference commentary, and any revisions in the updated economic projections. NZD/USD Vulnerable to the Downside Price action on the monthly timeframe for the NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) came within a stone’s throw of testing long-term support from US$0.5511 this month. Anyone following candlestick patterns may note that the current monthly candle is poised to close by way of a bullish engulfing formation. While monthly support is clear, and the bullish engulfing pattern indicates buyers may want to explore higher terrain, the rebound in October 2022 failing to print a meaningful high may concern long-term bulls. Couple this with the overall long-term trend facing south, and any higher rebound could be short-lived. This brings me to the daily timeframe’s structure. Friday wrapped up pencilling in a dominant higher high (US$0.5738), reaching levels not seen since December 2024. What I also find interesting is although we have a higher high, this move represents a possible D-leg to an equal AB=CD resistance between a 200% extension ratio of US$0.5804 and horizontal resistance at US$0.5774, along with a 100% projection ratio (the equal AB=CD structure) at US$0.5789 nestled within the zone. Consequently, although monthly price is testing a support area, my base case is that the path of least resistance remains to the downside for the NZD/USD. Daily resistance between US$0.5804 and US$0.5774, therefore, will be on my watchlist this week. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
by FPMarkets
NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 0.56300 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 0.58650 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 💫Fundamental Analysis New Zealand Economic Trends: New Zealand's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2025, driven by consumer spending and business investment. US Economic Trends: The US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2025, driven by declining business investment and government spending. Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025. Trade Policies: The US-New Zealand trade relationship is expected to remain stable, with no major changes in trade policies anticipated. 💫Macro Economics Global GDP Growth: The World Bank forecasts global GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024. Inflation Rate: Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2025, driven by increasing demand and supply chain disruptions. Interest Rates: Central banks are expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, supporting currency markets. Unemployment Rate: The global unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.4% in 2025, driven by job growth in emerging markets. 💫COT Data Net Long Positions: Institutional traders have increased their net long positions in NZD/USD to 55%. COT Ratio: The COT ratio has risen to 2.1, indicating a bullish trend. Open Interest: Open interest in NZD/USD futures has increased by 12% over the past month, indicating growing investor interest. 💫Sentimental Outlook Institutional Sentiment: 60% bullish, 40% bearish Retail Sentiment: 55% bullish, 45% bearish Market Mood: The overall market mood is bullish, with a sentiment score of +25. 💫Technical Analysis Moving Averages: 50-period SMA: 0.5684, 200-period SMA: 0.5594. Relative Strength Index (RSI): 4-hour chart: 54.21, daily chart: 51.14. Bollinger Bands: 4-hour chart: 0.57280 (upper band), 0.5624 (lower band). 💫Market Overview Current Price: 0.57280 Daily Change: 0.08% Weekly Change: 1.40% 💫Next Move Prediction Bullish Move: Potential upside to 0.5850-0.5950. Key Support Levels: 0.5684, 0.5594. Key Resistance Levels: 0.5850, 0.5950. 💫Overall Outlook The overall outlook for NZD/USD is bullish, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentimental factors. The expected increase in New Zealand's interest rates, bullish market sentiment, and growing investor interest are all supporting the bullish trend. However, investors should remain cautious of potential downside risks, including changes in global trade policies and unexpected economic data releases. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025 - NZDUSD broke the resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5800 NZDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.5700 (which stopped the earlier waves iv, 2 and ii), the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December. The breakout of this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave 1 from last October. NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.5800 (former monthly low from November).
Long
by FxProGlobal
NZDUSD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, NZDUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 0.5708 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 0.5737 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 0.5653 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Watch NZDUSD and AUDUSD because of RBNZ & RBA next weekThe RBA and the RBNZ are expected to deliver rate decisions next week, so there might be an slight opportunity for the bulls to capture a move higher, before those Banks deliver. Also, the current weakness in DXY could give a small helping hand for the bulls. That said, the positivity might be short-lived, as both Banks are expected to announce cuts, with the RBNZ potentially going for the bigger 50 bps cut. Let's see what happens. MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:NZDUSD 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
NZDUSD Strong Bullish BreakoutNZD/USD has broken a key resistance level on the H1 timeframe, confirming strong bullish momentum. This breakout signals a shift in market sentiment, with buyers taking control and pushing the price higher. If the momentum continues, we could see further upside movement. 📌 Trade Details: ✅ Entry: 0.56860 🔹 Support Level/Stop Loss: 0.56180 🎯 Target 1: 0.57540 🎯 Target 2: 0.58100 As long as the price holds above the support level, the bullish trend remains intact. Traders should watch for confirmation and follow proper risk and money management to maximize gains while protecting capital. Stay disciplined and trade wisely!
Long
by Pipsview_Analysis
NZDUSD Technical and Fundamental AnalysisNZDUSD Technical and Fundamental Analysis Technical analysis: Price tested a very strong resistance zone near 0.5665. Every time it was tested the price move down. The odds are that it can move down more today from this zone to 0.5625 ; 0.5607 and 0.5585 Fundamental analysis: President Trump continues to threat all countries with tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose reciprocal tariffs as soon as Wednesday evening , February 13th, on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports, in a move that ratchets up fears of a widening global trade war and threatens to accelerate U.S. inflation. This could support the USD strength and can push NZDUSD down even more. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4