Looking for a NZDUSD breakout/breakdown shortlyAsian Session Update: Ahead of the RBNZ decision, the NZDUSD is in a very tight .6110-.6150 range. A range break is expected in the next 5 minutes following a 25 or 50bpb cut.
NZDUSD trade ideas
NZD/USD - RBNZ poised to cut, but by how much?The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50 basis points, but a modest cut of 25 bps cannot be ruled out.
The RBNZ joined the rate-cutting club of major central banks in August after holding rates for over a year. The August cut which brought the cash rate down to 5.25%, marked the first rate cut in over four years. That move surprised the markets as the central bank had projected its first rate cut would not take place until mid-2025.
Why would the RBNZ slash by 50 bps? Elevated interest rates have weighed on economic activity and GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. Inflation eased to 3.3% in the second quarter, closer to the RBNZ’s upper band of the 1-3% target range.
The RBNZ’s latest projections have inflation falling to 2.3% in Q3. The inflation report won’t be released until next week and if the RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps and inflation is higher than the RBNZ estimate, it will put the central bank in an awkward position.
Another factor which supports a 50-bps cut is that the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 50 bps in September, which allows the RBNZ to do the same without risking a sharp decline in the value of the New Zealand dollar.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6137 and 0.6161
There is support at 0.6100 and 0.6076
ABOUT NZDUSDmy opinion about nzdusd is bullish and that zone is strong support and strong order block you can buy at that price
NZDUSD 1WEEKNZDUSD 1WEEK: NZDUSD seems to end correction with a triangle Y leg. Further confirmation of reversal is needed. Watch out those marked levels.
NZDUSD POSSIBLE BUY OPPORTUNITY Price trades at support level of 0.61188 we may experience a bullish rebound from that Level to at least 0.61659 and 0.62000 a buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market price.
NZDUSD LONGENTRY 0.6143
STOP LOSS 0.6100
TP0.6195 & 0.6206
The market has reached a support level on the daily chart, where we might see a potential buy opportunity within a ranging market. If the double bottom pattern on the 1-hour chart breaks above the neckline, we will look to enter the trade on a retest
Will NZD/USD Extend Losses? Traders Await RBNZ’s Interest RateThe NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, turning lower for the sixth straight day as traders react to the less-than-optimistic Chinese economic outlook. As China remains New Zealand's largest trading partner, any signs of economic slowdown in China tend to have a significant impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Focus on RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision following its scheduled policy meeting. If the RBNZ adopts a hawkish stance due to rising inflationary pressures, it is likely to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR). A rate hike would typically attract more capital inflows, providing support to the NZD. Conversely, if the central bank takes a more dovish approach by lowering the OCR in response to lower inflation, the NZD could weaken further.
The RBNZ’s decision will play a crucial role in determining the short-term direction of NZD/USD. Higher rates generally boost a currency, while lower rates tend to weaken it as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Remains
In our previous forecast, which you can review here:
NZD/USD Slips as Fed Powell Hints at Gradual Rate Cuts, we closed a bearish position from a supply area after successfully capturing downside movement. The current price action suggests another potential bearish impulse, particularly around the 0.60500 level. In a worst-case scenario for the NZD, the price could drop further to 0.58750, another key demand area based on historical support.
However, we view this deeper decline as less likely at the moment, given that market sentiment may shift based on the RBNZ's upcoming decision.
Waiting for a Bullish Setup
Currently, we have no open position on NZD/USD, as we wait for the pair to reach a demand area before considering a potential bullish trade. The demand zone around 0.60500 is a critical level to watch for any signs of reversal, but we remain cautious and are monitoring upcoming economic events closely.
Conclusion
As the NZD/USD pair continues to slide, all eyes are on the RBNZ and its interest rate decision. Traders should remain vigilant, as a hawkish move could trigger a rebound in the New Zealand Dollar, while dovish policies may deepen the pair's decline. For now, we are on the sidelines, awaiting a clearer opportunity to enter the market.
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NZD/USD Hits 1-Month Low, Bullish Outlook Despite Bearish TrendHello,
The NZD/USD pair recently hit a fresh 1-month low at 0.61064. Despite this significant drop and its position below key pivot points, the majority remains optimistic about a potential bullish recovery. The 1-day pivot point has held up so far, acting as a support level. In conclusion, while the overall outlook remains bullish, the bearish trend is expected to persist until a stronger support level is established.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
NZDUSD 2-hour cycle level longNZDUSD 2-hour cycle level long
Reason for Going Long:Harmonic Trading System (bullish shark form) +SMC order principle (bullish order block) + Trading Volume distribution + price trading behavior (bullish engulfment) = Go long
NZDUSD 2-hour level cycle,current price around 0.61425,enter the long position directly,stop loss level at 0.61000.
The first target is around 0.62420,halving the warehouse and promoting protection.
Look around 0.63666 for the second target position,then halve the position and push for protection.
Follow the tail position and reduce the position for protection.
Nzdusd is looking good for buy"In the past few days, NZD/USD has experienced a significant decline and is currently resting within my yellow demand zone, which is still fresh. I've decided to enter a long position, targeting a 4R return. Remember to always follow proper money management rules and to use a stop loss."
NZDUSD to continue in the selloff?NZDUSD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Further downside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 0.6120 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 0.6090.
We look to Sell at 0.6160 (stop at 0.6184)
Our profit targets will be 0.6100 and 0.6090
Resistance: 0.6150 / 0.6160 / 0.6175
Support: 0.6120 / 0.6100 / 0.6090
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NZD Sinking as RBNZ Preps 50bps Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to slash the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points this Wednesday, a move that's adding pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
A Reuters survey of 28 economists reveals that 60% anticipate the central bank will deliver a half-point cut, while market pricing suggests near-certainty of such a decision. Major banks—ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac—are all forecasting a similar outcome.
The kiwi has fallen to $0.611, down 3.33% since last Monday, extending its decline into a key technical zone, marked by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 50% retracement level from the July rally.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East are further driving investors into the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
NZUSD - Short for Short RunRisk Off Sentiment bringing commodity pairs lower. NZDUSD breaking into previous resistance pretty easily. I won’t consider longs until price gets to dashed green line.
NZDUSD → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone
NZDUSD moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity NZDUSD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
NZDUSDPair : NZDUSD ( New Zealand Dollar / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bearish Channel in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
NZDUSD Pulled By Strong Dollar Sentiment (Zones Entry/Exit)After NFP we have seen a larger inflow into USD.
Weakness persists, would not be shocked if we fall lower.
How Much More Longer BearishOn this pair, we find that on the weekly timeframe, the market is Bullish. Price even went all the way up towards our liquidity target but failed to close above it. We are currently witnessing another pullback.
On the Daily, price is bullish. We have seen prices currently retrace into the daily zone.
But there is a lot of speculation as to whether or not this our refined daily reversal zone has what it takes to invite the bulls of demand to hold prices at that level and drive it back up.
Now my Analysis:
As much as I would want the daily zone to hold, as this is the fastest way for us to find a LONG trading opportunity, jumping on the rally towards the confluence weekly/daily liquidity targets. But I have a bit of reservation on this. This is because of the force with which prices have come into the daily reversal zone. Prices have come into the zone with a strong push, and not the usual gentle slide in expected of a reversal zone. Dont get me wrong, I am not concluding that the zone will fail, but rather I am saying that instead of the initial 70% chance I had of the zone holding, I now have a 40% chance of it holding because of price action.
In the event that the zone holds, we will expect to see the rally resume with prices gravitating towards our liquidity target above; and we will excitedly pull out out panzy pips trading system and jump on the trade.
But what happens if the zone fails..?
Where this is the case, we will look to see prices deep further towards the Weekly zone below. From where we will look to see some bullish reversal and again place our trade setup right beside price and stand ready to trade.
In all of these, we do not and cannot completely rule out the possibility of catching some bearish trades where the daily zone is breached and price dips towards the Weekly zone.
Share your thoughts guys and let us see your perspective on the market
NZDUSD SellWhen the market reversal to this point where I marked up the zone.
I am looking for a strong rejection candle before I take a trade.
If I cant find that , I will avoid this trade.
Always do your our analysis before you take the trade.
Its a 1:3 RR trade. Monday trade wait until NY open.
#NZDUSD 1H #NZDUSD Weekly Outlook
Timeframe: H1
The market trend is bearish. We'll prioritize sell opportunities at the order block.
Wishing you a successful trading week ahead!
Potential bullish rise off overlap support?NZD/USD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could rise from this level top our take profit.
Entry: 0.6156
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 0.6122
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6207
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bearish opportunity @ NZDUSD The beginning of this trend is when H4 rejects by the Simple Moving Average 200. Always trade in H4 in this pair, because the volatility is always so massive.
NZDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
A possible Bearish run for the NZDUSD PairTHE PAIR SEEMS TO BE IN STRONG BEARISH MOMENTUM.
The New Zealand dollar is fundamentally weak and and US Dollar is strong where as in accordance with the DOW theory NZDUSD is also in bearish trend as per our trading Strategy of Monday Blues.
What are your views ?????
